Member Info for Stupmy

I should maybe have said that 'it doesn't look unlikely'.

I'd have said it needs to close above 26.4 or 26.5 for that, but it looks pretty likely.

Until they quantify it and determine whether the particles from tyres actually cause a problem, it's just 'interesting'. Makes sense on a logical basis, but it needs a bit of science behind it to give it credibility.

TLW up 6%, HBR up 3%, ENQ down 0.14%. Is something specific holding ENQ back today? You'd have imagined it would move in tandem with HBR.

I stopped trading this a while ago with the expectation it would fall to 84 p or lower. It's clearly done that. Having looked at the chart I have a previous low around 78p from Sept 2002 (mthly chart). We've not yet touched that level but we could very well do so. I'd say anywhere from there (even from here if you believe it's going to bounce) is a sensible place to start looking for long positions. I'll be watching signs of a turnaround and chancing my arm.

POO not rising, the companies I'm watching not particularly rising, but TLW on the up. Does look company specific and as if there si some good news to come. Time will tell.

It's interesting there's this idea out there that pent up demand is ahead of supply so it's better to book now to avoid disapointment. That's part of the business model I guess, using FOMO to fill places. It's been very obviously pushed by companies in this sector including TUI and CCL. The observation that these deals are happening and are being advertised (despite TUI clearly stating it was not going to happen this year which I also thought was a bold statement), suggests that pent up demand does not exceed supply and the market is not as tight/strong as the media and companies have been suggesting to us.

However my understanding is that target prices (I assume also margins) for non-discounted seats/places are a fair bit higher this year. So discounting to fill available seats hopefully makes sense and helps the bottom line. Fingers crossed the business mode here remains strong and the RI's and consolidation have put TUI in a stronger position that it had previously been in.

For me that still leaves the mechanics of the consolidation/3rd RI as the most important reason to see value in TUI's shares. Obviously I hope I'm right. Germany going into recession (2nd consecutive quarter of GDP contraction) is probably something to take seriously. At some point that will lead to job losses and a reduction in discretionary spending power. That has to hit leisure activities at some point. Something to watch. I still think the apparent discount in the TUI stock price will protect us from falls. I still think that the likes of CCL will be hit harder by any downturn.

Completely agree Stille, just thought I'd share. It's there, it's happening, no point pretending it isn't.

I have to say I was thinking of other things when that ad came on and it brought me back 'from the dead' and slapped me about. I had thought that they'd said clearly that late minute deals were not going to happen this year. I'm not concerned and I accept your view, but it was a little bit of a surprise. Chart looks fine (although I've had do some 'redrawing') so I'm happy.

Surprised that no-one has mentioned that Germany is now officially in recession. That implies a reduction in manufacturing output and if that lasts there will be job losses and a concomittant loss of discretionary spending. Interestingly, on the radio this evening (I listen to a german channel) I'm pretty sure that TUI were advertising 50% off holidays. I had thought that they had specifically said that there would not be last minute discounts and that people might expect to pay more if they leave it late. My german isn't that strong so it's possible I misinterpreted it, but I don't think I did.

The politics are difficult. I said this previously. You have a populous that agrees with the argument that we need to stop using fossil fuels (most have not approached it in a particularly intelligent way, but have swalled that idea), an establishment which tolerates demonstration that prevents the proper functioning of society, a government that needs to win support for the populous (simultaneously balancing the books; which is impossible to do) and an election just around the corner against an opposition that is currently leading the polls and supporting the idealistic view that fossil fuels must be eliminated immediately.

In my view the establishment needs to deal with the demonstration first. Establish an orderly right to demonstrate without the right to disrupt the day to day activities of the nations (for example the right to get your children to school or your loved ones to hospital). That would start to get the public on side and reduce the mediatisation of the demonstrators excessive zeal. One step at a time (although there's not much time to the election). Once the demonstrations are more controlled, they need to start selling the message to the public that although reducing reliance on fossil fuels is important, it needs to be approached in an orderly fashion that allows sensible transition. Once that's done, they could work on adjusting the EPL. For the moment though, bearing in mind they are behind in the polls, they're stuck in the corner they painted themselves into. We need a more intelligent leadership in reality.

Stille, the way I see it Yellands comments made people believe there's a deadline of June 1st, but that isn't explicit. It seems to me, that mid June is more likely. There has to be some time to get the documentation signed off.

Are we really confident that OPEC cuts are enough keep the oil price up vs a looming US recession that might not be a 'soft-landing?'. What if the OPEC cuts give us a bounce in POO and we get continued contraction in job creation in the manufacturing sector (US=international impact), with 'hopefull' but moderate growth at best (during the US summer season = traditionally a strong service season) and after the summer season (or even before) the service sector begins to contract in response to the loss of jobs in the manufacturing sector (less discretionary money in the 'system') and the bounce fails to hold? Are we staring into the face of something that can't be stopped now? Can anything the FED do protect the manufacturing sector? Starts to look a bit unlikely to me. I am worried we're in for a rough ride.

Sorry, the chance of them 'not' agreeing a new debt ceiling is low. Funny afternoon 'very disrupted' in fact, black swan events and all that. Just getting back to the screens.

Everything I read (written by people who know an awful lot more than I do) suggests the chance of them agreeing a new debt ceiling is low. But there's a lot more going on out there and what worries me a lot is that a large part of the 'expert group' giving their opinions related to the 'recession/no recession, hard landing, soft landing' etc have a vested interest in toeing the FED line that all is well, all is contained, all is under control, higher interest rates will bring inflation down, job market is strong, economy is growing etc. But it's starting to look to me to be a charade, with the cracks starting appear all the shop. I'm happy with most of my positioning (incl TUI), but feel as if I'm over-exposed should markets fall significantly. I feel very nervous and my early year plan of being out of most positions by end of June or July at the latest is not looking likely at the moment.

I see that Mike and won't disagree that the macro-environment is difficult. But this morning Travel seemed to be hit specifically. In the morning we saw CLL and TUI come off about the same (4 to 4.5%). CLL has since continued (7%) (I think 650 is not unlikely there), but TUI has held (4%) and may be about to turn up. But I'm thinking that with everything TUI has done to stablilise it's finances and with the SP being so far below the TERP, that we'll be to some extent protected from the worst with respect to falls in SP. I think we'll remain stable or rise. Obviously I'm speculating, but I think that's supported by CCL coming off almost 7% compared to 4% for us. I'm also speculating from a decent sized long exposure so could just be running on 'confirmation bias' fairy fuel.

I agree Stille, I don't see a technical reason for us to fall back after today. Obviously doesn't mean it can't happen. Some company or sector specific news could do it. But the idea that the US will default on it's debt repayments seems unlikely to me. I think by mid June that will be resolved. It does look more and more likely that the US is heading into recession though. Could end up being a worldwide recession. That will impact on discretionary spending at some point.

At the beginning of the CCL and TUI were off about the same, CCL continuing down and TUI holding it's ground now. Simply from a TA perspective it looks like CCL could conintue down to around 650. I have no idea why the price of either company came off today.

Then RNS mentioned 'accretive' M&A activity. To me that didn't sound like a tie up with HBR. I'd have thought HBR would be very interested though

I wish I had traded it now! I'm still not concerned. I guess it could come off to 518 which would be right hand bottom of the diamond or the bottom of triangle pattern. That could act a a point at which buyers come back. Volume quite high so far today also, so I guess there is some more distribution going on. But CCL had a similar start today suggesting this is not specific to TUI's rights issue.

I think that the reducing volume probably is showing us that a lot of the distribution of shares has happened and logically you'd imagine there will be less intense selling into rises. When I look at the daily chart it looks fab to me and I can't see it taking very long to get to the 620-635 area, but with broker targets and the TERP much higher, I'm hoping for a closure of the gap at around 760. That's visible on the 2h chart but is not apparent on the daily. Gaps usually close and it really doesn't seem unlikely to me that this one will too. I'm excited about it.