Member Info for Stupmy

We could do with Labour having a 'Bud-light' moment in their PR excercises. Perhaps Philip Schofield (what a shame Rolf Harris is no longer available) could help out with that. That would, in my view, free the hands of Hunt (sounds like a horror film; well it has been a horror show) to do the right thing and give us some relief here.

I'd have said most of those posting sensible comments are invested. Many heavily. Staying calm is easy behind a keyboard. Doesn't mean that everyone is sanguine about what's happening. But what can we actually do about it. Sometimes you just have to suck it up and hope that it'll come good. There is a lot to like about ENQ. Not so much the political sandwich it finds itself in. It is for sure worrying.

Well we're already seeing significant job losses and they're saying this. It's not constructive in my view as far as maintaining the jobs, conditions and pay of the workers they are supposed to represent. Something will have to give. If it's the EPL, then there's more hope for work and workers.

Genau Chumba, aber wenn. Ich denke bald.

When I said 'when our SP rose' I meant, when it rose and fell back. The extra volumer being perhaps the distribution element.

Yeah, Chumba, TERP is just Theoretical Ex Rights Price. You used TERP instead of Share Price (SP).

For what it's worth there were more adverts on german radio for deals on holidays so there is spare capacity. This advert was Costa (I assume cruises, but didn't quite catch it). If you look at volume over time since March, it increased over the RI period and has 'overall' tended to decrease up to now. There was a spike in volume when our SP rose. I assume that's distribution of shares into the market. I still personally believe that we're just working through the mechanics of the whole process. From a TA point of view, I'm hoping that a close in SP above 540 (that's the top of a descending line marking the top of a triangle pattern; or just a short term descending trendline from Apr 12/May 9/May 23) will lead to our breakout. I'm cautious though as any rise in SP is still being sold into. The average true range on the daily chart is still falling suggesting that volatility (discord between buyers and sellers) is falling. Heres'a quote from AvaTrade to put my interest in ATR into perspective. Just the first thing that came up when I googled it. Anyway, my view is be careful about being impatient on this.

As such it is not a trend following indicator. It is possible for volatility to be either low or high during any trend. What the ATR is really good at is identifying potential explosive breakout moves. As a measure of volatility the ATR is also used by traders to set a trailing stop loss on their trades.

AB has a lot of 'skin in the game', he's presumably working hard to give shareholders some relief. Another sound byte type comment 'it's always darkest before dawn', but you have to figure out what time dawn starts. No-one should advise others on what they should do and clearly this could lower. But another sound byte 'it's time in the market, not timing the market) suggests if you tough it out, you'll do better. I don't like these sound bytes as they don't stand up to close inspection. AB has been in the ENQ market for a long time now and the longer he stays in the more money he's losing. Having said that, in all probability if you forget it and go about something else with gusto then ENQ will come good. I think a lot of us hurting at the moment. Look at HTG, RNS yesterday that was more than upbeat. Over there we got a jump, but it's fallen back a fair bit and I predict it'll fall back to or beyond the SP before the RNS was published. It's probably going to be very tough for a while.

Point 1 is very interesting at the moment. A close in Brent price today below 71.5, brings a drop to 50 into sharp focus. Before people jump all over me, that level might not happen, but a close below 71.5 makes it a lot more likely in my view. Now that idea bout 50 comes from the possibility the price might break down from a triangle pattern (mini-inverse cup n handle; whatever) to give a logical target (i.e. one based on historical price movements from that type of pattern). Normally the price will change direction at levels of support/resistance. The best support around the 50 mark appears to me to be around 46 dollars a barrel. It's just a scenario. What is clear is that POO is in a down trend.

Agreed PYUECK, but the impact on jobs and local industry (then fingers crossed an outcry about importing) and an understanding that energy independence is desirable might force some change.

At least brent price isn't dropping like a stone. I'd prefer not to see it close below 72 personally.

Thanks Sekforde, I thought we were at 75% including the EPL and 40% without it. Either way, the current price of Brent is the wrong side of that viable figure.

Skeforde, that's even assuming 40% tax due to tax credits?

Jan, I wouldn't advise others on what to do, but I really do think that this is a process that's playing out. Maybe governed by CTA's. 14 has been an easy target for a good while now.

From a TA point of view Jeffrey, there was always a good likelihood of the SP hitting or going below 14. That's coming about now. 14p is (as far as I can see) the closure of the last gap in the daily chart. Closure of gaps often doesn't co-incide with support so it could go lower. But there is a potential support at 13.8, another at 12.25. So, once 14 is achieved it's time to look for a turn around in the SP (don't forget broker targets are higher) and start buying again. My guess is that one of the two supports I mention above, will hold.

'Clearly the market is sceptical at the moment of the real value added. '

For me the above statement might or might not be correct. This could simply be continued distribution associated with the RI. That's happening and it's happening in market envronment with a lot of risk aversion. I suspect, that mostly the SP reflects the continued process of the mechanics of the RI. Could be wrong. Maybe there is skepticism. I personally don't feel that.

I think what I wanted to say is that it's a bit arbitrary. So, I think most people would agree we shuold protect the environment, that we could do better in that respect and should do better in that respect, but picking on a single sector with between the lines of no more and no more now seems arbitrary. Some people seem to need to demonstrate and that's important and has led to significant and useful change in the past (I'm against demonstration blocking the daily activities of others). But just having this need to demonstrate and jumping on anything to force your view on others seems daft and damaging to me. I'd very much like to see a hard stance from the UK judicial system that forces activists to pay for any criminal damage or loss of earnings or even (no idea how feasible it is) blocking access to emergency services. Most of these people will turn out to be very hypocritical when faced with disruption that interferes with the lives they'd like to live.

maybe some of this is about politics and popular idealism, maybe not. but assuming it is and the protests against fossil fuels are interfering with us and our investments, then let's have a think about why. in theory, the protests about fossil fuels are related to it's 'necessity' as a fuel source and it's impact on the environment. why are they not protesting against the manufacture of mobile phones? almost every single adult and most kids over 10 have a mobile phone and change that phone every 3-5 years. why do we not have protests about this incredible abuse of the earth's resources? simple, they (the young ones; the ones who don't want to be bothered about getting a good education) like them? simple as that, they like phones so don't protest, they don't like o&g (presumably impt in manufacture of phones) so the protest against it. if you stick a **** education between those two points. you've no chance of bringing the public around to a sensible, moderate view.

IP, I guess most of those that drove will not have any business with TUI, but I saw it as a positive in that they were very clearly 'en masse' (huge numbers) so I figured that might read across to TUI. As you say, no up-tick for us today. But the volume is incredibly low so far.

Sadly proctor, education isn't quite where it should be. It reminds me of Ali G going to 'a right minging place called the countryside', he got out of his car and almost fell over a sheep to which he said something along the lines of 'what the f ist that!'. We test our kids and try to get them to slip up by convincing them that eggs come from cows. Even at a very early age, they don't fall for it.

You're funny iP. I'm assuming it was tongue in cheek (with a bitter taste).

For what it's worth I was driving through France Saturday morning and it was chocca with german tourists. Their holidays started and it seemed to me that the whole of germany is travelling. We had to suffer long delays because of the sheer weight of traffic (10km blocks at times) and it was almost entirely German Tourists. I'd imagine this is a good couple of weeks for TUI also. The guys we know who went on Friday did not fair better and those who left later than us faired worse. Incredibly number of Germans travelling.