Member Info for Stupmy

I wasn't expecting it to rise so much today. But as it has, I've closed out. I'll consider buying back after the divi when I think the price will be under 76

Aha, that's why the SP is so perky. Let's hope it wakes the UK up. Makes sense to shift the portfolio away from the UK

I bought back yesterday at 238/239 and have dropped them again at just under 250. If it drops back to 240 area, I'll buy back. I'm making a small profit each time, but more importantly lowering my average entry.

I rushed that a bit. Not sure if it will be a bad thing though. The price does look set to go to 75.8 or lower, but then again that makes sense if it goes ex-divi on Thursday.

I've bought a few for that divi. I'll double up if the SP drops by the divi with a view to it rising to or beyond the 76.5 level.

Well I tried that and it worked, but I'd hoped for more, held too long and only took about 3.5p before closing. I'm watching with a view to re-entering it though

It's not just TUI that is behaving in a predictable way. I dropped 10% of my HBR shares yesterday at 249 or so. Today I could buy them back at 235.5 currently and it's not clear they've bottomed. So although I think there are reasons to be quite confident about trading around rises on TUI, it's not just TUI that is behaving in a 'predictable' fashion. No-one can see into the future so in either case I could be blocked out on the shares I'm 'cycling'. For now though it's working very well. This morning here for TUI there was a very rapid jump (short covering?), but all of that rise has now been given up. No-one can see into the future, but some scenarios are more likely than others. I still think we'll see 525 and we could even see 517.5 or below. I've not yet bought back.

I dropped 10% of my shares at 249 yesterday and could currently buy them back for 236 or lower. Not sure that our SP is yet ready to fly. I was only hoping for 241 or so, so it's better than expected, but no buying yet to send the price back up. Brent is down though against those rises in gas and coal you talk about Ronnie, maybe the drop in oil dampened any enthusiasm in the rise in gas for us.

If you follow the weekly chart back, there is a potential support around here (I'm readin 338 but on a weekly chart that can't be viewed as a pin sharp level). Might be a speculative area to buy in the hope that we're not alone and get swept up in a rush of buying.

My best guess is that that is unlikely. CCL has done pretty well. I think that we are specifically held back by distribution around the RI. Without a wider market crash or unexpected TUI specific news, I think this will rise strongly when it's released from the sellers

I have to say that I'm not finding it a lengthy process for the moment and the knowledge that the underwriters and those that bought the rump at euro 5.6 (about 4.85?) are selling into rises to make a decent profit just makes sense to me so I'm happy to wait and try to benefit from what they're doing by trading around my positions a bit. That's largely to reduce my entry, but I am so far taking small profits. My entry is not below 540. At the moment, the 'predictable' nature of the process is making this a perfectly comfortable period of trading and waiting.

It's not easy WackWack. I think it'll work, but I'm not sure at all. The last 2 x I did it with 10,000 shares and gained an advantage of something like 36p in total so that's actually worth 3600 pounds. But it's not 3600 profit, it's just managing my position. I made a small profit on each sale and bought back lower so my average has dropped a bit. This time round I think we are close to an upswing that will be bigger than the previous ones so I've stuck to 5000 shares and crossed fingers. If it fails, I've taken a small profit, if it succeeds, I've taken a small profit and bought back at an advantage. So for me the downside risk is pretty trivial. There are two downside gaps. Gaps usually fill. There is some distribution going on each time the SP rises. For me it makes it entirely possible we'll drop to close the gaps at 526 and then 517.5 (2h chart). Just have to wait and see if it actually happens

Rather than answer the question Mary. It should be an easy one to answer for someone so confident in their view. Please, answer. Give us all the benefit of your in depth understanding of todays RNS (something that goes beyond regurgitating the RNS). You actually have no clue, but missed a fabulous opportunity to say nothing.

You've done yourself no favours.

Were you Elenor on other bb's?

That's a bit sad, I hadn't even noticed it had gone. I do watch it closely elsewhere though (by way of hiding my shame).

Mary, you stated that you didn't know why I was confused implying you had a detailed understanding of what this RNS meant to HTG (in the short term). I would still like you to demonstrate that that is true, otherwise I will hold my view that you made a cheap shot like an instagram fool.

The timing is difficult, short and long term. I agree that the SP is very likely to move substantially to the upside, whether it's this year or not I don't know. I want it to be, but I think that the US and Europe will be in recession at some point. I guess that will impact our revenues.

Always worthwhile and interesting to look at the dates!

MSM I'm long and hope that the SP does well. Obviously I think it will over time or I wouldn't be long. But I have to separate out what I want to happen from what I think will happen. I think that the RNS this morning will get a little buying going from PI's that will fizzle out and the SP will drop back to close the gap. There is no obvious immediate win here so there is no obvious immediate necessity to buy. Just a view and it will be proved wrong or right. If I'm right I will buy back some of a leveraged position that I previously closed. In short I will try to trade around the opportunities I see and I I think there is one here. Sometimes I'm right, sometimes I'm wrong. Just have to wait.

Mary explain the detail behind this deal and how it will add value to HTG in the near term. I can't, over time management expect this to add value and I'm happy to accept it will, in the near term I don't think it will and the SP will fall back. Explain to me why I'm wrong.

Explain your confusion Mary. Cheap shot from you.