Member Info for Stupmy

So the placing shares are now available to the market at least theoretically? Were they bought at the 45p placing price? If so, we can expect that anytime the SP moves above 45p, it'll be sold into.

If the SP was going to be sold into, it would very likely happen here at around 564 (that's just a potential resistance on the daily chart). If we close above 564/565 it might favour 590 or even the 620 area. All getting exciting now.

Yeah that's the bummer of it, it's great improving your position/taking profit on swing trades, every time it works it feels right and then when it doesn't there's a tendency to kick yourself. That's why I kept the trading float small. But things can change pretty fast and time is a funny thing. There's also the fact that TUI is not the only rabbit in the field and the money that I've taken out of TUI can be put elsewhere if TUI doesn't come back to 525 or 517. There is still a very good chance that it will. It always seems like you've missed the boat and then there's a temptation to rush back in at a higher price, negating any benefits from early successful trades, then as soon as you do that, the price comes off. I won't buy back unless the price comes back to 525 or 517. I'll put the money to work elsewhere. It's a very difficult business taking money out of the markets. But mostly the difficulty is the fight against own base instincts.

Only time will tell WackWack and sitting on a bit of cash is good thing. a couple of weeks ago I was overstretched and looking to drop positions (not in TUI) to rebalance my cash/positions, now I'm optimistic (because the markets are moving up; I suspect quite temporarily) and I'm not excited about dropping positions. The truth is (from my own perspective), if I was overstretched a couple of weeks ago, I'm still overstretched and what looks like a bargain today, will be a headache tomorrow. Best case scenario for me is a rapid rise in SP for TUI to 760-800 so I can drop the lot and move some of my resource to cash.

Is that just participation in the placing? Are those shares that FIL have accumulated, now going to be distributed into the market in an orderly fashion?

Two of them from FIL limited, both accumulation, but one seems to show them almost doubling their long position in JSE to 9.29% and the other raises that to 9.63%. So if there is some selling from Odey (fall out from his unrelated legal worries), it would seem that they're being bought up by FIL limited.

When you say the penny has dropped, I was feeling that for a day or two, but figured I'd missed some detail and that what I was feeling must surely be nonsense. It appears it wasn't as much nonsense as the governments policies. Wow, the shear incompetence of this is mindblowing.

You really couldn't make this up. The stated aims are to encourage investment in the UK, move closer towards energy independence, encourage job creation and reduce the UK's carbon footprint. The result has been to bring investment virtually to a stop, the loss of 500 jobs or so, to encourage our independent companies to seek opportunities outside the UK's fiscal reach, cede dependence to other countries that produce O&G and in the future to increase the UK's carbon footprint albeit in a way that doesn't show up on our books (i.e. the increase in our carbon footprint comes from outside the UK as a direct result of our policies). What's not to like, one goal after another, what a shame they're all hitting the back of the net on our own side. These 'leaders' never fail to shock in their total ineptitude. I was encouraged by the idea of modification of the EPL, I'm now discouraged at the ability of our policy makers to lead our United Kingdom.

Have I understood correctly, that unless the POO falls below 71.40 for 6 consecutive months, then the EPl remains for all profits (not just those in excess of 71.4)? What on earth is the point of that? Surely the price floor should set a price limit below which no EPL is levied and above which the EPL is levied on the excess i.e. only the part above the historical average that they are setting at 71.4? Is it just once again a total nonsense?

I suspect it's a computer program. No idea how all that works, but I guess AI or some form of program is working in the BB space.

Exactly, devil is in the detail and there's a lot we still don't understand here (nor, apparently do the government)

The more I read, the more confused I am. I think we need a little time for the detail of the EPL modification to crystalise. If it doesn't then I'm with Y11, it's entirely possible we'll fall back a bit and 240 does seem to be a potential target.

That goes back to my earlier point Megla ie. do prices have to remain above the long term average for 2 quarters to trigger the EPL to kick-in after it's been reduced by 2 Q's below that average? Makes no sense to wait 2 Q's for a reduction (that's a long time when we're talking about a price of 71.4), and then have the EPL kick in immediately the price goes above it's long term average. It would make a nonsense of it. I've not read the detail (if indeed there is any) so it's just thinking out loud.

I'm in the privileged position of being in profit at the current price. 525 would have me sitting at a loss. So any rise would suit me. I sold a percentage (small) to trade with, with the view that we would see 525 or 517 area in the near future. In one sense that stamps on my feet as I'd be sat at a loss, but in another it would allow me to get that small percentage back (I strongly believe we will rise significantly over a relatively short period of time). One way or another, only time will tell, I guess I don't like sitting on my hands (maybe a discipline problem there; sometimes it pays me sometimes it doesn't). If we don't drop back one more time then I was wrong in my trade (happens often enough) and I don't want to be! Now I sound like a kid throwing a rattle out of his pram. But I'm not, it's just boredom really. This is all I do, I'm not employed by anyone, I have to make it myself from the markets.

In short, up or down (short term) suits me.

No-one can see into the future, but I suspect we're about to see the next phase of distribution. Or at least some selling. I'm still hoping for 525 or 517.

I'm confused now. Has a floor been put in to the EPL at 71.4 on the basis of price of brent dropping below it's long term average for 2 quarters? Or is this something more complicated?

Y11, that would be very good news for me. I sold 10% around 249/250 and can't buy back until 240. I'd happily buy back if it met my criteria, but have to say I have some doubts about it coming back to fill that gap now. Moderation of the EPL would seem like a very good thing for a company that is doing very well. Really not holding my breath for 240, but if it comes, I'll jump on it.

Sorry 71.40 a barrel. For the EPL itself to kick in, does that mean the POO has to be over the long term average for 2 quarters?

Articles on the HBR board are saying it's a done deal with the floor set at 72.4 dollars a barrel. Surprised that hasn't had a bigger impact on SP's here and HBR. Maybe there's some detail that means all is not quite what we'd like it to be. POO has to come below it's long term average for 2 quarters for the changes to kick in.

This is fabulous news and should give us some relief both here and on ENQ, really happy to see it. But, it's a shame this wasn't better thought through before the implementing it. I really do wonder how much of the damage already done is now baked in for the medium term. The next governments stance will decide for the medium to long term. This government was really short sighted here and 71 dollars seems reasonable to me. Good work HBR and ENQ for responding to the governments naivity in a sensible business orientated manner. Shame it meant job losses and investment losses for the UK, when just a bit of forethought would have kept everyone happy. Really reflects badly on UK leadership. Shocking episode. It's angered me enormously. Mainly the stupidity not the financial hit to me, that's really less important, but the idea that we're are being led by incompetents really annoys me.

Just the rumour has had an instant impact on the SP. A lot of damage already done. Be interesting to find out how much can be reversed if they actually do change the EPL. Labour still waiting in the wings!