Member Info for Stupmy

I think it'll return to the 650 area, possibly lower. I doubt anyone agrees with me, but there you have it.

Maybe that affects us too, not sure how much. But also there's competition and long lead times for new planes. It means that at a time of high demand we can't fully exploit it. Which slows down debt repayment. Quite a strong general view that the world is heading towards an internationally co-ordinated recession with individuals having reduced discretionary spending means that getting extra capacity in 6 mths is very different from having it now. We might end up with extra capacity just when the discretionary spending tightens. I think TUI will be fine SP wise, but think CCL SP got over-excited and that they will continue to fall.

Looked quite upbeat, similar to last results from TUI, but so far it doesn't appear to have pleased the markets and CCL is dropping hard. I've previously said I think this well hit 650 area, let's see if the results are the catalyst. We could see negative read-across here on TUI to close the two down side gaps.

Yes, RNS is out.

I did try this, have moved to profit but actually dropped half at 0.8p loss today. Clearly risky with gold and silver on the slide. For the moment though, that 610/612 area of support has held, I'll react quickly to the upside or downside.

Yes, I'm actually on trading view although I rarely have time to read much over there so that slips a bit.

Thanks Mike for the source. I'll look at that but it'll take a while I guess this evening. If it really was behind the large rise then that's great for CCL. As for Motley Fool, just like every other source of information or views, it's a good read and you just have to make it work according to however it is that you're own mind/system etc work. Have a good weekend all. If I can find a few broker notes etc, I do think it would be interesting to see how they relate to SP movements. I know I've tried in the past and have be sceptical that they cause a long term change, although recognise they can be tradeable.

What about that chart that we discussed Y11 on your software that isn't available to us. Please explain and/or demonstrate with a chart where you get you're 180 target from?

i posted a few posts below, it's not really changed much other to close the gap i've been concerned about for months. i put a horizontal line in to show what i thought might be the next support. all a form of guess work of course. something could happen over the weekend to change everything. i'm hoping personally that we have now seen or are very close to (12p) the bottom, doesn't mean it will happen. we're a good company trapped in a **** storm.

One would imagine that common sense must kick in at some point. But I fear that point is only after servere damage to investment in UK O&G. We're trapped between idiots and zealots (also idiots). Nothing will change until it becomes very publicly obvious that the governments energy policy is nothing short to ridiculous and currently polls are predicting that the left wing zealots will gain power a the next election and make things even worse. It's a nightmare worse than the one they had on Elmstreet. Interestingly, once Aberdeen has been closed down by labour, I imagine that there will be a fall in support for Scottish independence that at least at one time was going to be financed (like everything that the labour government into to pay for) by the O&G industry. Maybe we should celebrate that in that respect at least, we will become a stronger and more 'United' Kingdom.

I'm getting broker ratings up to july 2022 (LSE), I'm not really sure where to look but know there are more recent views than that, if you can give me the last two or three I can put them on the SP chart and we can see what impact they had. I can say that they don't always do what you'd imagine them too. Barclays recently upgraded to ENQ to around 35-36p (from memory), the price has continued to fall and is now below 14p. The impact of broker/institutional upgrades is really not always what you might hope for. I still think CCL will be available for 650 and will not hold it for any length of time.

What date was the upgrade Mike. Let's see what the impact on the SP was I can put it on the CCL chart. In general, broker notes can have an effect on SP (not always), but the effect is often not very big and not very long lasting. I prefer to see how the market is responding the news and the SP. It might seem odd to say how the market is responding to the SP, but what I mean is that at a certain level, people start to take profit, get nervey etc and CTA's reverse.

Other point, I think it was you Mike that alluded to all (or many) leisure/travel related stocks taking a dive today/last few days. But that's not entirely true. Compare CCL with TUI, TUI has been hit disproportionately. My own feeling is that in the nearish future you'll be able to buy CCL for around 650 or lower, but that is not currently where the market is valuing it. I also think (hope) that TUI has seen the worst (unless we have some bad news) and we'll see 760-800. Timing those changes in SP is not easy. Also worth noting that with enough 'ifs' you could put Paris in a bottle.

That was meant to read 'doesn't look unlikely'

Well, from my point of view 217/218 not looks likely. The run up to 258-260 seems to have been a bull trap based on the Talos rumour. Next point of interest for me is where does the SP go after 217/218. We're pretty well in uncharted territory (unless you want to consider 20-30p). I'm struggling to figure out how to effectively guess where next. So I think 217/218 now likely, but at least speculatively it will rise from there. I guess that if a deal were actually announced we'd get a big move (direction dependant upon the conditions of the deal). Don't ignore the fact that HBR does have real value. The market is just testing out to find where that lies in the eyes of investors. Time is likely to be kind to holders in my view.

Obviously I'm interested in the state of discretionary spending, but if you take the argument that that is what is responsible for the decline in SP here and elsewhere, you'd have to argue that this is going to get worse, not better (that favours 525, 517 or lower). Inflation is high, interest rates are rising, people have financed cars and houses they can't afford and mortgages are now cycling off fixed rates. Discretionary spending is very likely to take a big hit. You'd have imagined the leisure industry would damaged by that. Build in the drop in productivity and import/export from the US, China and at least Germany and you have the right kind of conditions for a recession. Credit card spending has increased for the summer period (US data) and the mean credit card lending rate is almost 21% in the US and 22.5 in the UK. Something has to give and according to your view, you should be looking for further downside, not upside. I'm an expert in nothing. I think that TUI did the right thing to refinance, although I know it's hurt a lot on here. It might provide some downside protection as interest rates rise. I'm still bullish, based on the SP dropping so far below the TERP and the current situation where leisure appears to remain strong. But if the increase in credit by consumers is based on just getting through the summer (US data, but I assume there is some parallel in Europe) then towards the end of this year, we'll be dropping.

I remain long.

In a way that's the clue, in theory every situation is different. Anytime you say this or that will happen, someone will pipe up and say "but wait, it's different this time". That leaves you bound by beliefs that actually don't hold water. So in the case of TUI I traded out of 5000 shares at a profit, with a view of getting back in at 525 or 517 or lower. My underlying belief that the business is undervalued (i.e. it's different this time) prevented me from selling into this rise despite the fact I could see that filling those minor downside gaps had a good likelihood. It's an emotional trap based on human evolution (basicaly based on 'I know best'). My view is it's very rarely different, despite all the fundamental analysis, TA will give you a very good handle on what is likely to happen. You'll get it wrong often, either because you made mistakes based on your own mind-set or because it turns out 'that it's different this time'. But over time, in all probability, using TA and cold (very simple KISS) logic, you'll do better than just assuming all is good. Just a view.

The CTA's do not trade randomly, the smart money doesn not trade/invest randomly. They have rules, if you can work alongside the rules they follow, you're more likely to do well. But, they don't base their decisions on fundamentals (unless their trained purely on FTSE 250 for example). They're trained on what is likely to happen, how much clout they have and how much more likely they can make certain scenarios. It's hard work swimming against them

Personally, I'd let the conspiracy theory side of things go, it's unhelpful. If you believe the company remains a going concern, then look to the chart and KIS (keep it simple). All of the research in the world will lead to nothing much of the time, unless you have conviction in your positions. So, despite me not being a fan of sound bytes, in this instance 'time in the market' is (in my view) likely to pay. The gaps are the blue rectangles. Interpret it as you will. But over time I've learned not to ignore it.

https://screenrec.com/share/4rGcHJK5e2

Golitha, I'm constantly wondering whether this type of thing is now consistently related to the work of the CTA's (computer trading algo's). It almost feels to me that if it can be done, it happens and something (that I don't understand) is driving that. Most gaps close most of the time, there are two downside gaps to 525 and 517 approximately. I have no logic to offer on why on earth the SP would return to those levels and would love it if someone would help me to understand, but it's a clear observation (go back on most charts and look for yourselves) that most gaps close most of the time. It means betting on them closing is likely to save you money or make you money.

A long time ago I said that 14p was not unlikely, it looks extrememly likely that will hit or exceed that level now (we're at 14.58!). I know that's unpalatable and many of you don't like the idea of TA, but basically TA just looks at what's happened in the past, and tries to work out what's likely in the furture. Once again, the TA view has been correct. I still believe in the company and am long so my personal view is that once the 14p data gap has been taken care of, we'll be close to the bottom (but what does close mean). Not all gaps close, but over time most do and once the SP is in the gap, it becomes even more likely it will close. There is a possible support at 14.3/14.35. That's on a closing basis, so maybe we'll see a dip below that and close above it (just thinking out loud for all those who want to have a pop at me again). If that doesn't happen, then 12.2/12.4 becomes likely. If that doesn't hold, we're off to 10.8/10.9 area and needing special pants. GLA. Happy to post a chart (Í've figured out how to do that if anyone wants to see it).

Below is a post from 19th of June. Well, it looks like 565 is nailed on now (we're at 567 and well into that data gap; 2h chart). SP is running down along the underside of the zero lag 200 eMA, problem is that that is dropping each day and whoever is in control of the SP is selling into it each time the SP hits it. Until we get a close above it, we'll keep dropping and the 525 or 517 gaps become increasingly likely to fill. It's impossible to say whether the SP will close above the zl200eMA, but if it does, we'll start the next leg up. I've not sold any shares (but with hindsight of course wish I had!). GLA

"Well, we're very close to the 565 mark now and it looks pretty well inevitable that we'll hit or exceed that. The really interesting thing will be whether we get down to the 525 or 517 levels. That is not impossible. Like you Stille, I've not sold any shares, but am trading around these movements."