Member Info for Stupmy

OTCD, I'm not losing, but it's sitting still more or less so I'm not winning either. Todays price action suggests another attempt at 517 or lower. Once that's out of the way then TUI looks set for a solid rise. Worth say that a similar rationale related to my view on CCL would have it at 650 before I can buy in. With the SP at 1253 at the current time that looks unlikely in the near term at least. Historically, it's been worth my while to be patient and not be rushed into FOMO trades. I sometimes am as I'm susceptible to the same traits as most people, but those are the ones I most often regret.

I'm still waiting, although in all honesty I've deployed my boosters elsewhere and would certainly overstretch to buy back. At times like this it is very difficult not to buy but I haven't even tried a small punt using SB's.

Sundezena, we'll see. Time is what confuses most.

noobyinvestor you've fallen foul of my tits n timewasters rule.

I hold that we will fall back rather than bang on. However, none of us can see into the future and I'm an expert in nothing.

It showed some weakness again when the baker hughes rig count came out with 6 fewer rigs. Maybe part of the reason.

No, not bought back (remember I held most of my shares sadly). At the moment the 2h candle looks like it could end up suggesting a bottom, but I'll wait. Could easily still see the 517 area.

Exactly SK, we wait, we wait, we fear, we tremble and it doesn't happen so we jump in the water with no bathers on just as the tide goes out!!! I've had the feeling often, and sadly human nature isn't easy to change so I'll probably be caught again in the future.

What I've read about it Bhants sounds fab. I read an article a month or so ago about someone trying it out, approaching the bar and being asked, what would you like to drink this eving Bob. I couldn't believe it, it knocked me out. Most of us like to be recognised, so lots of people go the same local, same butcher, same fruit shop and love a little chat and to be asked 'apples again bob' or 'Is it your usual'. Makes us feel as though belong. When I used to have a local it's something I valued too, when I saw that cruises have some token that is read by monitors around the ship, I just thought 'wow'. Knockout. Must really add a kind of belonging feel. As I say, not done it yet, but maybe one day. My parents in law did a Norwegian Cruise and they were very positive about it.

I get what you're saying there Bhants, but the problem with assets is that their value is only as much as someone wants to pay for them. For example look at the NS oil industry, before the EPL (energy profits levy), the value of assets was pretty reasonable. Not sure anyone wants to buy them at the moment. Asset values can change quickly. The SP can also change quickly (i.e. market capt) but over time it should bear some resemblance to how the market values assets plus risk.

I'm watching that inversion. Largely via Steven van Metre's youtube videos. I'm following what he's saying and believing that much of it rings true. Although he is a touch provocative with his titles, if you watch the content and try to understand it, he calms it down a bit while clearly stating his view that the 2yr/10yr bond rate inversion is not to be ignored.

Yes SK, kick the can as far as it can be kicked. Timing the end of this process (which to me at least seems quite close) is difficult but important. I'm not getting it very right personally at the moment.

The problem with that SK is that following Brexit, we have to pay tax on our imports from Europe, the interest rates already levied are reasonably high if you think about the excessive price of housing that people have chased up and the silly people buying expensive cars on finance that they actually can't afford. The knee jerk reaction of the non-thinkers is that the answer is higher salaries. After all higher salaries help deal with the silly debt one has sadled onself with (in theory). But if businesses are not making money, where do these higher salaries come from? Actually the whole mess seems to lead towards a lot of job losses and recession. Only then will we be able to bring inflation under control. It's almost certainly what the central bankers actually want. Smoke and mirrors to say let's get inflation down and all will be fine. It won't. We actually need a recession to wake people up to reality and get them thinking about their personal responsibilities. It's going to kick us all in the conkers.

Fordy, I do have to say I'm hearing that everywhere. Even from friends that cruise, even the stories in the papers etc it sounds fab. For whatever reason I've not cruised and historically haven't been attraceted to it, but with the buzz around it I'm becoming more so. No-one can see the future least of all me. But my own rules on trading/investing mean I have to wait for my next entry on CCL and I won't take the 990 area opportunity. I know nothing, just try to work out what is more or less likely. I'm not trying to put a downer on CCL, I just feel that for me I have to wait.

It's shot up over the last couple of months from that kind of level. Costs are rising for the company. We're in the middle of what appears to be a euphoric outlook for travel companies. CCL has a lot of debt at a time that interest rates are being hiked. Those interest rates are interesting to CCL from the point of view of underlying costs, debt management and discretionaly spending. Housing is coming off it's peaks. There is a general view that there will be a worldwide recession, during which many people will find they are without work (the lay-offs have started). CCL is not making a profit and cannot react fast enough to the current demand to exploit it effectively (lead times for capacity). Then there's the chart which will seem silly and facile and trivial to most as we're in a euphoric phase where investors really believe the buzz-light year rhetoric of 'to infinity and beyond'. The chart has a gapin the data to around (from memory 650). Gaps usually fill. This is not rocket science, just go back on any chart (except tech like Amazon/TSLA etc) and check how often gaps didn't fill. KIS.

It's not easy to sit through this Jan. Same boat here, I've been overconfident and got kicked by the EPL.

When I suggested 990/992 for first stab at an entry if you're a believer. The SP was actually 1044.

I can. Some people think that they can see into the future, well no-one can. But for the sake of discussion Fordy. I'd say don't buy this until it gets back to the 990/992 area. I think we'll see that very soon.

My gut Stille is with you. This is a monster waiting to wake. In the meantime I still favour 525 and 517 or below.

I didn't understand the comments re jabs to be honest.

Masai, agreed and that profit that everyone hopes for each announcement and just seems to get further and further away is a real problem. Costs are rising for these companies, demand is rising, cost to consumer is rising (which should increase margins, but I assume it's just about holding them steady) but profit isn't there. What I don't agree about is that we need stellar results for a rise in SP. I think we will be well rewarded for entering around the RI, timing is tricky. I originally hopped for well over 600 by end of June, that's a hope that's not aged very well!

Thanks Bhants, pleased I'm not the only one who found that a bit weird. For anyone who's interested. IG markets covered CCL this mornin and think that it will recover some of yesterdays losses today. They covered other cruise companies also and made the point that the drop wasn't CCL specific. They suggested the problem was essentially linked to inflationary costs (that makes sense to me as it pushes profit further out in theory). I hold my view that whether this rises a little in the near term or not. We will move towards 650 in the nearish future. I understand that won't be a popular view. But what's the point having a discussion if the only thing you ever do is try to be popular.

Thanks again for your reasonable approach Bhants. BB's really can be a cesspit at times.

The question was asked. I answered it and have a ratonale. MPeterson, you fall foul of my tits and timewasters rule

Supposedly start July 1st, will it take a month before they feed through? Anyone know the detail of how that works. POO doing a bit of a jig on support, just wondering how long we have to wait to find out it turns into reel.