Member Info for Stupmy

OSG, the US markets are dropping, FTSE has marked a new low today. I haven't been around enough to look at what data was released etc, but clearly the market didn't like it very much. The earlier RNS from Jet2 seems to have had a negative read across to us here. It looks increasingly likely that we will see 536 or 517 in the near future. I've started opening shorts (not here) and they're doing ok for the moment!

Everytime I sell some when I wonder if we're at a swing high, in the back of my mind I'm kicking myself and wondering if I'll ever be able to buy them back. This is a good company, with a good management team, low debt, share buybacks and a good divi. Although I'll benefit from the fall back, I'm also amazed we're sat at 221/222 as I type. Just waiting to buy back. I'm making a profit on my sales, but at this level the rump of my holding is not in profit. Each cycle I catch, I take a profit and reduce my average entry. At some point, surely this has got to move up.

Rishi is stating out loud, that the reason UK inflation is responding very slowly to rising interest rates is because of fixed mortgages. That's fascinating, because what he's actually saying is that the government are trying to hit debt holders to reduce discretionary spending to bring down inflation (obvious I know). But that's a pretty strong statement of intent that the government is aiming to hit the housing sector and that there might be some dips coming for related stocks and some opportunities coming for those looking to buy a house. Sellers will be hit with bigger and bigger discrepencies between asking prices and actual selling prices. It's all hotting up.

If you look at the data from China and the US (and Germany), then exports and imports are down, signifying a reduction in production of final products for sale. If the demand for final products is really falling, then there will inevitably be job losses. No point employing people if they have nothing to make/do. Common sense tells us that people liked working from home during COVID and feel so entitled that they don't want to go back to working on site. For a large proportion, they are not working to their full potential and they are not benefitting their employers the way they should be. Some are juggling looking after kids with a full time job. They are admitting it, this is not fantasy. We actually need a big reset in the economy to get people to understand that being paid for doing a job is a privilige, not a right. 'Our' work ethic has gone out of the window. It's all me, me, me. It has to come crashing down. Be careful about assuming that we will not see a fall in employment (a big one). AI sitting on the sidelines is already, making jobs obsolete. Writers, photographers, artists. Also, go to a burger bar and try to order a burger from a person! Not easy, it'll be the same in bars, Spoons let you sit at a table and order your beer on the phone. It's all changing. If you have a job, then do it to the best of your ability because you might not have it for very long.

I also think that with China's

If the SP was to close below 3325, I can't help wondering whether we'd see the 3135 area. After that there would have to be a battle between bulls and bears, if it closed below that level, the risk of seeing 2900 and below would seem reasonably high.

MSM, I fear we'll head back to 201 or lower. I dropped 40% of my leveraged positions at a reasonable profit and that was not easy. It's an illiquid share. I did in fact open this morning hoping to sneak in before the SP rose, no luck there of course. I'll wait now and if we get a retrace I'll be looking to add back.

IP, be patient, or learn a bit about TA to take advantages of the moves. Over time it has to settle into a place where the value of the company comes through. In the short term, it can be pushed all over the place by CTA's (computer trading algorithms).

I can't help thinking that you're tongue in cheek when you post iP. I'm guessing that you're expressing your sense of humour rather than being serious?

RNS this morning. You'd imagine that it would cause a rerate in the SP, but I guess we'll have to wait and see on that one.

Here's a chart (2h) of where we are. Might be of interest to some of you. There's a short term rising tl at the end that is worth watching. If the price closes below it, then filling the gaps below becomes much more likely. As we previously discussed, don't ignore the upside. You never really know which gaps will fill when. But my guess is the downside gaps will fill fairly soon but that we'll also close that upside gap over time. GLA

https://screenrec.com/share/zFCfw3Xc7M

That one already closed. The one that remains from my original posts would close around 517. There's a 2nd that has opened up now that would close around 536/537. I closed another 5000 at around 605. It's very difficult to guess at the future, good rises today and I dropped the 5000 on the basis that we were challenging the previous high. That often results in some selling so I sold a few. Only time will tell whether it was a good or bad decision, but it was a good profit (almost 70p).

OPEC have changed their stance substantially over the last few years. They've moved from trying to crush the US fraccing industry by dropping prices, to now wanting/needing prices at 80 dollars a barrel. Has anyone looked at their infrastructure plans? Absolutely amazing story there and in my view, it's why they absolutely need 80+

Don't forget the cuts start on July first and have to work through, that normally takes 4-6 weeks. So it's not impossible that we're about to see a rise in prices.

Price is getting interesting as 240.75 ish would close the first upside gap. It's a very nice bottoming pattern and a good recovery (buyers are there) suggesting it's not out of the question that we close the 2nd upside gap to 251 ish.

It's getting difficult for Russia, they're actually probably not making enough profit to justify producing their oil at the moment. They're at a 20 dollar discount to international spot prices.

Interesting strong rise for ENQ/HBR today. Is this the Saudi cut feeding through (starts first of July) or do we need a month to see it's impact? I don't know so genuine question. We're rising which is good. We closed the gap to 14 which is re-assuring and might mark the bottom (the fundamentals would support that as we're in a much better position now than we were a couple of years ago). I have added, but would recommend caution as we could very plausibly drop back to 14.7 or below.

Mike, so we're looking at gaps and I said I was surprised no-one has asked about the upside gaps. I said the money from TUI was used elsewhere and that I'm a bit overstretched in a previous post. That money went to HBR, it's now moving and there are 2 upside gaps that look likely to close quite quickly the highest of the 2 is around 251. I'm sat on a profit and that will get bigger if the gap closes. There's another one up to around 260. I think the price will move up to at least close the one around 250/251

One thing no-one has asked is about upside gaps. That interests me. I do favour conservation of capital, so I personally probably put more weight to downside gaps than upside, but over time, upside gaps normally close just as do the downside gaps. Personally, I'd prefer to see the downside gaps close as it almost feels like business is finished in that direction, then watch the upside ones close. There's an upside gap to about 760, which is below the TERP. In my view, we will see that close.

Mike it did, the 525 gap closed, the 517 gap did not, but another one openend above the 517 gap. I don't have my chart software open and can't remember the details of that gap. In a way it doesn't matter as for the 517 gap to close it would also mean the higher one has to as well.

The gap filling side of TA is unappealing to many as they/we base so much of our investing/trading on fundamental beliefs (that's actually just another way of guessing at the future because no matter how much we believe we know, we most certainly don't know everything and no-one can see into the future). The CCL gap is an interesting one, the price almost double now so that's a big missed opportunity at a trade based on the belief that gaps usually close. It'll be interesting to see whether it closes with time. Obviously that would require a big drop and most would view that now as very unlikely. I still think it will close, but have no idea how long that will take.

OK, a few things.

Savage, your post deserves more time than I can give it for the moment. I did think at least one of your points could argue in favour of good profits or against. I'll try to remember to come back to you on it.

Stille, thanks for that, but please don't put too much weight on anything I say. I read a fair bit and some parts of what I read resonate with me (that will have a bias towards my personality so is at risk of being unbalanced if you like). So what I'm saying is based on the work/thoughts of others, I'm just thinking out loud about the things that seem to make some sense to me. I'm no analyst that's for sure.

OTCD the rationale is very simple and will not appeal to most. It's facile and silly in so many ways. But, take the TUI chart and mark up every gap for as long back as you have the time to do. Now, check how many remain open. We have 2 gaps now, the lower of the two is to 517. Gaps almost always close, that means that statistically there is a much higher chance of a gap closing than not closing. Timing that closure is very difficult, could be next week or nex year or longer. Also if you're in a bull phase, it's not unlikely the price will move away from the gap for a period before coming back to close it. The general markets are not really bullish, they're sideways, toppy or showing a slight bullish tendency. That suits the prices of stocks bobbing up and down. I simply have a rule that I mostly keep that I won't buy back if there's a downside gap.

Savage, how convinced are you about that? With interest rates rising, debt (finance plans on cars/mortgages) is getting more expensive (quite a lot more expensive). Pawn businesses are doing well at the moment, housebuyers are getting bigger and bigger discounts as distressed mortgage holders come off their fixed term low interest rates. Food prices in the UK particularly (but not only) still high (due to tariffs imposed by Europe post-brexit), fuel costs still high (despite O&G prices coming right back off their highs). UK government increasing their tax revenues (got to be hitting some of us), credit card rates at 22% plus (and people using them more recently). Somewhere along the line, something has to give and hit discretionary spending. I can't help thinking TUI has been very smart in the RI to avoid what's coming (or mitigate it). What's coming, seems to me to be a squeeze on discretionary spending. If you look at lead times for liners and planes they are high due to current demand outstripping supply. To me that suggests that leisure companies cannot exploit the current 'pent-up' demand effectively and putting resources into expanding their offers. If discretionary spending is hit hard, if demand comes down. Then some cruise companies, airline companies and holiday companies are going to find it difficult to service debt at a time where their capacity has increased, while their revenues are falling. I'm cautious over the medium term. I still think (this might simply be confirmation bias) that TUI will do better than many of the others.