Member Info for Stupmy

This is sometimes a better source of short info than shorttracker

https://screenrec.com/share/HqzVaCcOpZ

Proctor, despite having put money aside for the EPL up until 2028, we're still currently odds on to get a Labour government who have promised to up the EPL to 78 and remove the 91% credit against the tax for inesting in the NS. HBR and ENQ are in a tough space for the moment. We need clarity on the current EPL and whether meaningful changes are being considered and also clarity on what's going to happen at the next GE and if the conservatives hold power what will they change about the EPL and if Labour get into power will they flip flop around and come up with something acceptible to us or will they follow through on their promises and fund all of their socially responsible and envrionmentally responsible policies through winfall tax that wouldn't pay for free milk for primary school kids in Fife.

Isn't it seductive, all of this 'to infinity and beyond' talk!

'Fantastic entry point' (1215.5). No rationale given despite being asked twice. Fordy, very happy to have people saying whatever they like without any thought for a rationale.

Current price 1179. I guess that's a 'Fantasticker entry point', go Tops go and go Fordy, go. Keep up the nonesense.

I've added again just over 31. Not sure how this can't be viewed as a good news. If it does fall back to the 29.5 area, I'll start buying shares. For the moment I'm just buying SB's.

I don't normally do this but I bought some on open, I have 30.76 showing as the price, but bought around 31.5ish. Seemed like it was very good news to me.

Fordy, I absolutely believe that if you make a bold 'orphan' statement like that, you should be prepared to defend it. I will not hold back from asking for an explanation on a bulletin board. If tops doesn't have an answer I think it's important that we know it.

I absolutely dispute your point that he has not reason to explain such an 'orphan' statement. I think it's a very important part of any discussion and will make no apology for asking for an explanation. I don't think I said 9.50, I think it was 6.50 (but I could be wrong), what I was happy to do was explain my rationale. Like anyone else I cannot see into the future, but at least I have the integrity to have a rationale and to share it. It seems Fordy that we're not likely to get along.

Only time will tell, but I'm on the pessimistic side of the argument for the moment and think that the US banking problems are in the early stages.

JPM are in a priviliged position. I don't think it does tell us the US economy is a good position. REITs are handing back commercial properties to the banks, commercial properties are very difficult to sell now (that's the reason they're being handed back). Someone (the banks) are going to have to take the hits on this. When sold some are going for 60-70% below buying prices (not asking prices). The employment data is skewed to the low paid temporary job sector that normally rises in during the summer season. When the summer season is over I'd be expecting the joblessness numbers to increase. If employment fell before that it would be an even worse sign. I think the US is heading into recession and apparently China (despite not being in recession is not able to pull them out). In china their property market is rocking their economy. Their system for the private sector was that an individual got a loan from the bank, that money went into escrow (in theory untouchable by the developer or the debt holder) and subsequently the property was built, the money went to the developer and all was well. Sadly the developers took the money, didn't build the properties and the debt holders have been left paying the bank for loans on houses that were never build. The debts in the Chinese development system are monumental. Evergrand is the classic example. I really don't think the US economy is in good shape, I think we're close to the last gasp before the whole world more or less moves into recession.

My understanding is that the money for the EPL has been set aside (thus wiping out our profits for 2022), so that should not affect the content of the August TU. POO has dipped but is rising again, therefore we should be expecting a pretty upbeat statement in August. I'd assume it's why, despite the EPL, Barclays has a 450 price target. We've already taken that hit. Any sensible ammendment to the EPL would give us back some of the written down profits? I'm maybe missing the point or some detail of the point, but I'm expecting the next few years to look very pretty for us.

I agree Ronnie that TUI is a better bet currently than CCL and that that difference is likely to increase in size of the coming years as the increased capacity they're ordering, comes on line at a time when demand is dropping.

I don't see the coiled spring in the charts and would be interested in a clear explanation. I do however believe that the SP here will increase to 760-800 in the relatively near future (barring a large drop in the wider stock markets or negative company specific news or a recession). If we don't get any of those, I think the SP will move up reasonably soon, but with enough 'ifs' you could put Paris in a bottle.

Top, I have no interest in you controlling any my decisions. I do have an interest your reason for stating it's a fantastic entry price. You've refused twice to respond. My guess is that you don't have the faintest idea. That is not attractive. It is however very common on bb's for people to talk off the top of their heads with no idea whatsoever. I'm not impressed.

By the way I don't think that it was Benjamin Franklin who said 'nurses'.

There's a little bit of buying hold the price up here around 1200-1205 based on the low around June 29th (2h chart). In my view that is those with a bullish bent seeing value. Also in my view that will not hold and the price will come down to a more significant support around 1145-1150. At that point I think that bulls and bears will fight it out to decide where next. The rationale is purely based on what is happening now and the obvservation that money doesn't flow into the market randomly (except from some PI's). My guess is that at the moment, some PI's blinded by the bull case are seeing value. I could be just as wrong as anyone else. Just guessing at what's happening now and what is most likely to happen in the near future. News changes everything.

There has to be a rationale behind a statement as strong as 'Fantastic entry point', I'm just asking what it is? I'd have thought you'd be able to give me a clear answer when you hold such a clear and strong view on 1215.50 (at the time of your statement), being a 'Fantastic entry point'. Bhants clearly got a very good entry point in the 750's from memory. You're saying 2 or 3 weeks later that 1215.50 is a 'Fantastic entry point'. There simply has to be a rationale behind what you've stated, unless of course you're just regurgitating the bull case you're reading here? It's just a question.

And in my day nurses

Having said that I did sell 10,000 shares to capture the risk of downside to the 202/203 area.

I made a right mess of calling the bottom here and am happy to say I'm now within a whisker of b/e. You can't always call the bottom, but if you get an entry that's low enough, most often you can get out without a loss!

If that industrial action isn't quickly resolved, it might be the reason behind the weakness being shown currently in CCL and possibly threatened in TUI..

That would be even better. I have a large shareholding that I'm not really trading and am happy will pay off in time (especially with divis), but the beta on the share has also been paying nicely for trading on leverage, so my hope for more falls is based on that swing trading side of things.