Member Info for Stupmy

From a TA standpoint, I had 522 yesterday as a possible support from March 2020, but that could be viewed as a band of support from 522 down to 460. On speculative basis I have been buying around 522-528. Far from a risk free trade and with results tomorrow I may regret this in the very near future. Time will tell, no-one can see into the future.

There's also a nice irony in the data. Just as holiday season is getting into full swing, trading volumes are dropping. It might be that whether the SP ends up rising or falling first, we have a period of treading water or slow declines while those with the real money are sat with Daqueri's on their cruise liners or on the beach. Looking back on my own data from trading the first half of the year as almost always been where I took most of my profit and this year I actually came into the year aiming to exploit that. I managed to move to about 60% cash last week when I sold out of TUI, HBR, HTG and others. I still believe each of them represent good longer term investments. Just hoping that the end of the year will see better entry prices.

I really think that it's a tough balancing act. Probably one that the FED/BoE and others can't win one way or another. It's probable whatever they do now, there will be negative consequences that follow and it'll all be blamed on them. Lloyds results were interesting this morning in that they showed an increase in delinquency rates for private mortgage holders impacting their bottom line. If that's just the start of it (and it will be if interest rates stay high or rise further), then what many are assuming is a US problem, might well be manifesting itself here in Europe. Having said that we're in results season and tech seems to be continuing to drive up the US markets. In my view it'll all end in tears sooner or later and there was a famous quote along the lines of 'when the stables burn down, the pretty horses come running out along with the nags', the idea being that well run, profitable companies are also sold down. TUI could be argued to be well run, with some tough decisions (3 RI's and a consolidation) putting them back on a sustainable footing post COVID, but TUI isn't yet profitable. Further degredation to the leisure sector or the wider economy will bring the SP of TUI down. For the sake of clarity I have no exposure now and would like to see the price drop to 517 or below (thought I'd state that again for you Mike so you can get your knickers all twisted once again over not being in control of what others have to say). After 517 I'll feel more comfortable that an obvious downside risk has been removed and I can re-assess an entry. My view at the moment would be that if I got an opportunity to re-invest at that level, I'd jump at it, that's below my mean prior entry.

Mike you are being now and have been for some time, unbearably patronising. It's never likely to end well. Moderate you're own posts not those of others.

You should maybe pass that by Mike before posting SK, he's now the father of the board and would prefer to moderate any posts that don't toe his line.

I'm a couple of days behind on the news (largely), but even with CPI in the US dropping to around 4%? they're still threatening further rises. We're some way behind that states and our inflation appears to be more complicated following Brexit (added tax levies on goods from Europe). In my view it's entirely possible we will see more rises. The US will be really interesting, with their commercial real estate problems reaching quite critical levels with owners of debt trying to hand back commercial properties to the banks and the banks not wanting to take them (but having no choice when pushed due to the nature of the contracts on the debt, linked with the mantra that commercial real estate never drops in value). This is leading to lenders (the banks having to renegotiate the payments on debt. When you see fire sales of real estate (60-70% off their assumed values) going through, you can see the banks have a problem here. They have to drop the rates they are collecting on the debt or take posession of buildings that are worth less than their loans. If they drop the rates on the debt for one or two, the others are going to want it as well. The banks are about to hit with some big write downs. The FED may very well have to drop interest rates back to zero in the nearish future. But for the moment, they are still threatening 1-2 0.25% hikes. This is not all about inflation. The inflation is the headline being chased by the FED/BoE etc. The only tool they seem to have to deal with it is to raise interest rates. Raising interest rates is making other parts of the economy creak badly. Very interesting times. It's almost a game of chicken based on how far you can go with the interest rates before have back peddle to save the banks.

Mike, let's agree to disagree, I will post as I see appropriate and will not bow to your wishes. You post what you see, I'll post what I see.

'I still think we'll see 760-800, but I also think we'll see 588 and maybe 535ish and 517ish. '

I wrote the above on July 19th. We hit the 588 level (actually 581ish) today and have been hovering about it since. A close on any 2h period below 580 would favour further falls and from the chart I'm looking at it's a bit tricky to identify levels likely to act as support. Possibly 576 would be a support, after that it looks like the 555 area. A close below 551ish on any 2h period significantly increases the liklihood of the gaps to 535 and 517 areas closing. I see some are arguing that the weather related problems around spain/Italy/Greece will be short lived and easily contained, but it might be worth thinking about it from a different angle. Those problems will affect peoples perceptions of mediteranean holidays or perceptions of likely SP performacne itself. That in itself is exploitable by traders/CTA's to move price. It's going to be an interesting period and only time will tell what is going to happen. I can. A lot of people say that no-one can see into the future.

I hope it was obvious that I was being ironic.

NewK: 'HBR have the right idea for sure thanks to Linda, diversify away from UK as much as possible ..... 2028 is a long, long way off for this punitive tax to be reversed, if it ever will. My guess it will either be extended or re-named by whoever is in gov then'

Why would they ever even tinker with it, look at this link, it describes some of the things labour will get done using money from the EPL. Since this was published on or befor Apr 17th, I'd imagine there are other things they'll be funding with it as well by now. I mean, if you can get all of this done with this one simple 'NS giant slaying' tax, then why not increase it and take some more?

https://screenrec.com/share/2bGZtWCPaT

Indeed Bhants, no-one can see into the future and anyone who says that they can, as Turkish might say 'is not to be trusted'. We'll have to wait and see what happens. Wouldn't it be ace to know in advance though!!

The odd thing is, that on the chart (I work a lot with TA), it could be setting itself up for what's called a hidden divergence. If that were to happen, you'd be getting a good upside move in the near future. It does seem that I'm alone in my view that we will soon see some downside. I should say that this is not necessarily specifically to do with CCL or the travel sector (I closed out all of my TUI position at around 610 yesterday or the day before). I think that we are heading into a recession and I am not in the 'soft-landing' camp. I also think that although interest rates might go up in the next couple of months, it won't be long after that they're brought right back down in a panic to try to control/repair that damage that is being done to the economy.

Bhants July 18th: "I think we have all believed for quite a time that CCL would recover to a high that properly reflects the company’s true worth and also taking into account management reporting. "

You seem to be a very reasonable person Bhants so this is most certainly not any form perjoritive comment wrt to yourself, but I seem to be a lone voice in the wilderness here and I still suggest that there is a strong liklihood that the SP will retrace. Initially I believe we'll see 1075, but I also believe it's entirely feasible we will see 990ish. If that level did not hold, 880 area becomes very possible. I previously stated I thought the 650 area might be a decision point but looking in more detail at that (it's a downside gap in the data), it has closed on the daily chart but has not closed on the 2h chart. I'm not clear on how to interpret that, but I will consider it to remain an active risk, although obviously with the SP currently at 1232 it would seem to require something pretty dramatic to bring the price off that far.

Of course any of the potential levels I mention would be even fantasticker than the 'fantastic entry point' of 1225 that topofthecharts threw out there and refused to justify with a rationale. Fordy, I assume you won't be asking me for a rationale as you called me an idiot for requesting a rationale from topofthecharts! Isn't it wonderful to live in a consequence free world where we can say what we like with no risk of ever having to explain ourselves. Makes me feel as if I'm a parliamentarian!!

It's never that bright to put times on this type of thing, but then I'm not very bright. I agree the US markets are overbought and I think we could see a correction begin by the end of July. I'm hoping for that and will be short given the right signals. US retail demand is poor, US production is dropping, US open positions are falling, US initial claims are just starting to rise. I really think that we are on the verge of seeing initial claims increase and that despite the obvious data showing their CPI is dropping (and could move back to 2% or lower), I think it will be too late to stimulate the economy and we'll see a downturn over there. China is looking for 5% GDP but has plenty of difficulties in their commercial and private property sectors and with US demand waning they're going to struggle to do anything particularly impressive. I'm expecting the 2nd half of this year to see a turnover in the US economy, that'll have a big knock on effect on china and Europe will not be immune. That's clearly not the official line coming out of the US though. Over there it seems there is an increasing belief that the US will has employment under control and they will avoid a recession. If it's the case the US markets might well move further to the upside. I don't believe that rhetoric. But I'm not an expert.

If there's a good profit OTCD, then it might very well accelerate this rise in SP. Up to now, most results have been jam tomorrow 'record demand', high revenues and losses. If you can't make a profit with record demand and high revenues during your peak period, it's not that great a picture going into the winter season. I'm on the fence for what we'll see there and I'm also no longer invested . I'm hoping to see some large drops here (as previous stated 517 would be great), in CCL (from memory I was hoping for 650 although that seems a big ask in the near future) and on HBR, HTG and interesting my recent interests BT and Voda which I've been in and out of. I'd be interested in building more strongly into both under the rigth conditions. For the moment, personal circumstances mean I won't be able to pay the attention to the markets that I normally do so I've pulled a lot out as a portfolio management move.

I agree SK, too big a reaction to the inflation data suggests to me that there is too much optimism out there. I'm firmly in the pessimistic camp that believes a recession is on it's way. Also at the beginning of the year, my overall plan was to drop all or as much as I could by end of June, that didn't work out, but July has given me the chance to rationalise my holdings. Traditionally I do worse in the 2nd half of the year compared to the first half so I'm trying to work that into my years work.

7 x 5000 this morning. I still think we'll see 760-800, but I also think we'll see 588 and maybe 535ish and 517ish. I'll also find it difficult to be around my screens over the next 3 weeks or so.

I also dropped all HBR at around 252 and almost all HTG at around 262. We'll see where we are when I have more time to focus on things

GLA in all you're doing

We're about to make a 4th attempt at the 610 area. Each time, the rise starts from a higher low suggesting that buyers are getting bolder. But each time so far, the sellers have beaten it down from the 607-610 area. Maybe this time it will break free for the next leg up? I'm skeptical about the reduction in inflation being enough to sustain this rise though. Maybe there is something else at play here? EZJ results?

Interesting rise in SP yesterday/today. Logically you'd assume that it's related to the possibility of getting more control over the Tuna offshore block. Worth noting though that many shares are up due to a fall in inflation. Many of those will fall back later today (sell the news), be interesting to see whether HBR does. I've sold 25% of my shares and will sell a few more in the hope that I can buy them back in the near future at or below 241. In my view there is a pretty good chance we'll see 251 today and if we were super fortunate and the americans started buying later it could be 260.

Mas, we need to see profits, not just 'record demand'. Best not to forget that we have to service our debt and get fat before winter.