Member Info for Stupmy

US markets continuing to fall at the moment. That's likely to weigh on the FTSE/DAX tomorrow. Also Friday often gives some falls as traders try to limit risk for weekends when the markets are edge. I suspect we'll see the 517 level tomorrow on TUI unless there's a US recovery into their close.

I've been saying it for a while Roadie and I've been very wrong. I trade it but am not interested in holding it at the moment. Purely from a TA perspective I think it needs to drop. I don't know what will trigger the drop, but the current SP is already falling. That could be related to US discretionary spend (paying down debt rather than using cash for leisure), elevated auto-loan and credit card delinquencies, increasing systemic risk to the US banking system, Chinese exports and imports dropping month on month, china exporting deflation to the US, initial claims increasing etc etc. SP could also be hurt should cruises be cancelled or cruisers be put off by weather related phenomen (excess heat, wildfires that are currently causing problems in some regions), natural disasters such as volcanic erruptions. Many possible risk factors, but eventually the fact that they are paying out for increased capacity on long lead times, at a time when there is a belief that pent up demand will last forever, is I think likely to leave them with excess capacity when the idea of pent-up demand is proved to be short lived. I think the SP has got ahead of itself and will come back down. I'm not exposed so it currently doesn't matter to me, but if it came back to 650 I'd be looking a lot more closely. I have previously called this come back down and been laughed at, they're laughing at me now again. But some on this board thought it was unlikely the SP on TUI would come back and it has. Don't forget also that people laughed at Bob Monkhouse when he said that he wanted to become a comedian, at the peak of his career they weren't laughing anymore! No-one can see into the future, but I think CCL comes off to 990 and later to 650.

It was a limit and to be honest, I'd nodded off so wasn't even watching when it triggered. I'm not sure what price I got but the limit was set at 535. I personally think you're right to wait and that you'll see some better prices, but none of us can see into the future so I've started. The fact it's at or better than my previous average is good enough reason for me to start, but I'll try to build into that at better prices if I see them. My intention is to buy back all of what I sold, possibly more.

It is only one for the moment and that 4999 is the telegraphed trade. The next limit is at 5001.

Shave, it's not a top-up as I closed out completely my previous positions. Looks good now, but it wouldn't have had the SP moved to 760 first! Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. For various reasons I believed I had a good chance of success on this one.

Shave, not sure about the all hail. There was no rocket science involved, but it has worked and I have started to buy. Buying is speculative as closure of gaps often doesn't represent a support. It could fall further and there's another gap to 517 ish (from memory). They usually fill, doesn't mean this one will, but until the SP reverses any buying here is entirely speculative.

Omah Khayyam splits men into 4 groups. "Men are four: He who knows not and knows not he knows not; he is a fool - shun him"

Mike discussion of gaps appears to have had value and perhaps you should show a little more humility in future. I have taken Omah's advice on this matter. I have started buying again (I telegraphed it so it's visible at least for now) at 535. That is possibly slightly below the average price of my previous holding so I've taken somewhere between 70-75p profit and have started to buy back my shares. I think (but don't know) that the SP will fall further and I will continue to buy back my holdings.

The other 3 groups of men described by Omah are as follows: He who knows not and knows he knows not; he is simple - teach him; He who knows and knows not he knows, he is asleep - wake him; He who knows and knows he knows; he is wise - follow him,"

Personaly I am simple and like to learn so thanks to everyone on this that has taught me. I wonder whether anyone can get beyond simple when it comes to trading/investing as this world appears to be constantly evolving and doesn't tolerate hubris well.

Silver looks to have bottomed for now, that might stabilise the SP. There is 'expert' comment in the press etc suggesting silver is oversold. Gold may have a fair bit further to fall. Only time will tell. For the moment I've held my long positions.

Steve/appleby I was having some doubts and moving towards agreeing with you that it could be a daft move. As you say, trending up and lots of press support. But I've stuck with it and still hope that the price will drop to 3362 or below.

I don't know why it's dropping. Extreme weather, fires, volcanoes, industrial action etc could play a part. Also the summer often has traders leaving for a holiday that leads to some drift. According to some, CTA's are maxed out on the bullish side and looking for reasons to take profit. Then the economic backdrop i.e. arguments about discretionary spending. No idea what's most important. GER in recession. They have pretty serious problems there but I don't know how that impacts their discretionary spend.

For me, I actually want it to fall back as I've made clear here. I think it's looking good and am keen to buy back.

Oh dear, SP probing downside. 549 at the moment. Buyers had been trying to hold 552 area, but they are looking to as if they'll be overwhelmed by sellers for the moment.

I should also say that I think TUI is probably good value SP wise and I'm looking to buy back should the price drop below 535. I'm watching closely. I still think CCL will drop hard and come back off to the 990 and then 650 levels. Obviously very wrong on that so far. I think the extra capacity that they're ordering on long lead times will end up being spare capacity in the medium term.

Maybe, but I think inflation will come down, Chinese exports/imports will continue to fall or at least remain weak, US import/export is strongly linked to the rest of ther world so China (and Germany which is in recession and it's figures are looking grim) US data will likely show falls. As the summer season moves forward the service sector employment (that some are predicting to lead industrial employment; despite that historically being nonesense) is likely to show considerable weakness. Already totat compensation the US is falling and initial claims are rising. I just don't think it is 'different this time'. I understand that pent up demand and the cash accumulated during COVID argument, but I can't help wondering whether people will use it to pay down debt and cover inflation and brexit related costs at some point in favour of going on holiday. Of course only time will tell. Mostly though, when we think 'it's different this time', it's not.

SP still showing weakness. If the price closes below around 552 (let's call that 550 for a boost on confidence on the call), then the chances of 535 increase a lot. That's just a decision point (2 different things current converge there; gap closure and a rising TL support from May 4th and May 31st. Currently only two points on that line, a drop to 535 would make it 3 and that's a point at which traders/investors/CTA's will be making a decision. In my view it's likely to be driven below that level to 517 (Mike, there's me on about gaps again. Suck it up).

I think that currently the market is underestimating the chances of global recession and I think that travel will suffer just like other areas, maybe more as it's discretionary. Only time will tell, but we're close to 552. I sold between 600 and 610 (from memory/more or less). So currently sit on an advange of 50-60 p. If price drops back to 535 I'll be able to buy back at or below the average price of my previous holdings.

Well Seen-it-done-it the following comment from this morning has not aged well so far

"I think we should see £6 again sometime this week"

Looks increasingly likely that we'll see 535 in the near future. How do you like them onions Mike? Watch the gap!

Not sure Carvey on the banks. Another US bank went (or at least was forced into a merger), from memory PacWest merged with California ... something or other. It had spent a lot of time and effort selling assets to increase liquidity and stabilise deposit bleed. It obviously didn't work very well. I personally think there is more to come.

Thanks Rick, but I have the bit. The thing I want to understand more clearly is the inversion of the yield of short vs long term bonds (debt). Normally you get more interest (yield) from longer term debt. When interest rates go up, then the short term yield on bonds goes up and there is an inversion of yield for bonds. I.e. the shorter yield exceeds the longer term yield. I have a vague idea that banks borrow on the basis of the longer term treasuries and theoretically lend on the basis of the short term yields. Where there is no inversion, they make a profit. Where there is an inversion, then if they were to lend at the rates dictated by short term yields, they'd make a loss. So, normally they curtail lending (less money supply and more chance of recession). At the moment the 'too big to fail' banks are not lending according to the short term yields as they don't have to. Retail and even commercial money is afraid of being invested in small/midsize banks and is moving to larger banks even though interest paid is lower than CPI (i.e. there will be a loss). Despite understanding the general principle, I'm struggling to crystalise it (very much like the TERP that Hexam and others helped me to get a better grip on).

SR, I get the general concept that the yield inversion on bonds is bad, but I'm not sure I really understand clearly what it means. Is it a case of the government having to pay out higher interest rates on short term debt (bonds) in order to sell them (i.e. generate revenue from investors)? I'd like to understand this in a clearer manor. Hexam, you've got a clear view of this type of maths/fiscal policy. Or anyone really, just be good to have a firmer grasp of it.

I'm still short here and added to that short this morning. Currently down a little on the trade, but after todays falls I'm not far down.

I've just checked that and you're right. Just goes to show that you should never trust what's posted on the bb's. I'm more comfortable knowing it's already published as I don't like holding over out of hours scheduled news. Thanks for that madm0nk and sorry for having restated what I'd read from this board assuming it was correct.

I'm also hoping you're right on the short side and am building shorts into the US500.