Member Info for Stupmy

I agree with that. I'm watching the new COVID wave (hospitalisations doubled since June), but so far reports seem to suggest that it's not likely to be a big deal. I'd also suggest that if it was to increase hospitalisations a lot, we'd not lock down in the way we did for the first wave. I think that argument is likely to prove to be more fear than substance.

I've continued buying this morning. However I now have more than I had last time and would happily trade out of some of my position should we hit/exceed my b/e. Just to keep my entry price lowish and my exposure sensible.

I've been out for a while and waiting to see 200 or below to re-enter. After this mornings RNS I did think that was a pipe dream. Really not sure why the SP has dropped. Looked like good results to me? Anyone have any idea?

RD I agree, nothing is fixed, anything can change and there's a pretty reasonable chance that change in this instance could favour a move to the upside in the SP.

NAV, no idea what Taconic's rationale is as the ideas I put forward are more a 'safety net' than specific reason to short over 3% of the shares of a company this size.

NAV, always a niggling worry when there's a background shorting campaign going on. It's often the case that short positions lose money (often a lot) though so I'm trying not to fixate too much on that. I guess with the background idea that the world is heading into a global recession (feeding into reduced oil demand theories), stock markets are perhaps over-valued and sensitive to any force that might be viewed negatively then the short might have a good chance of allowing Taconic out without a loss or even with a profit. But the underlying story for HBR is strong for the next 20 years or so (guess) in the absence of the EPL or a Labour government. Might be a rough ride, but if HBR can diversify away from the UK, this could be a very good place to have money invested.

No-one can see into the future, this is just the way I view things.

Well, rightly or wrongly I've bought more. I'll back off and wait now, but it seems like a sensible price after a good set of results. Over time, I'm pretty confident that this company will do well and find a way to move away from the EPL restrictions or the fear of a labour government. I'd guess we have at least 20 years to make hay before the sun shining actually prevents us making hay if you see what I mean.

I've bought a 2nd tranche with a SP showing at 235 .5 (I got 236 point something). I do worry about the election, the move from oil (medium-long term) and the EPL, but naively or not, this looks like very good value at these prices and I'll continue to add as it slips.

I'm a bit confused. I though we'd set aside money for the EPL to 2028? In which case, how are we sat at an 8 million loss on the 2nd half here? On the bright side, I called it down to 235/237 and it looks possible that will give me my next entry. When I read the RNS, I became quite doubtful that I'd get that entry.

I don't much about that side of things but US markets rising, oil rising again (probably temporary) and I'd imagine we'll see a relief rally tomorrow on stocks listed in the UK. CCL rose a bit in the afternoon and TUI rejected 500 and below. Fingers crossed we'll see a good rise tomorrow. Often get a fall back (could be to 500 or so) before a rally sets in so I'll be watching carefully for a buying opportunity.

It does look as the market is 'méfiant' about the results tomorrow. Just have to wait and see. From a TA point of view I wouldn't be surprised if there was a drop in SP however temporary that is.

Well OSG, to the brave the spoils and long may that hold true.

Looks like were not alone around the 500p mark

I used to watch HAT and others. You might be timely, there. Or late, but it's a business already showing signs of a good pickup

My limit buy should trigger this afternoon at this rate (easily). It'll be obvious as I telegraphed this and most my other buys.

Brent dropping and from a TA perspective it looks like HBR needs to hit the 240 mark again and probably 235/236. I closed out at 248/249 this morning and have set what I think to be a reasonable limit buy around the levels I've mentioned. I'd like to accumulate a larger position, but for the moment trading the swings appears to be working pretty well.

For whatever reason (maybe lot's of small reasons) the SP is not being well supported. I've continued buying and have another limit buy not far below the current price. That would get me back to my previous holding if it triggered (but with a lower mean entry price). I'd be happy to buy more if it dropped further as I believe it's undervalued. However, as previously stated I think the SP could face headwinds if the general economy turns to the negative side (which I think it will).

I feared that was the case, but sometimes feel a bit foggy over some of these statements. I know that you are not in the slightest bit 'foggy' so thought I'd ask the question.

So essentially the rate of change has been somewhat over egged by post-covid staffing complications (as I remember security vetting staff was a bottle neck that left airports and related business short-handed) if you exclude the one off costs, but if you include them it strengthens the apparent trend toward profitability by giving YoY postivie EBIT for the 3rd Q.

It does seem to leave TUI vulnerable to further downside impacts whether that be weather/natural disaster related or man made (I guess some would argue they can be the same).

We need a solid period of strong EBIT to allow us to pay down the interest on debt. Still looks fragile at the moment to me so I agree with your caution on a previous discussion you were having with respect to EBIT.

Hexam/anyone that understands these things! The following line confused me a little. Could someone clarify it in a crystal clear fashion. Obviously since the weather related incidents mentioned in the Q3 results, weather related fires/volcanoes have continued into the 4th Q.

This line seemed vague to me:

"Q3 Group underlying EBIT at €169.4m, improved strongly by €196.5m and €122m excluding the impact of €75m flight disruption costs in the prior year (Q3 2022: €-27.0m loss) and is the first profitable Q3 since the pandemic"

What were the flight disruption costs in 2022 and does that mean that if they were included then that 196 million EBIT improvement would have been 318 million? Or am I being optimistic there and it means that the improvement in EBIT was in fact 122 (when you take account of flight disruptions). Sorry if that's dumb.

Trying to get a feel for how the continuing weather/nature related problems in key holiday destinations might impact this years figures. TUI can't absorb everything without it showing up on the accounts.

Yeah, a rationale on that might be interesting. for me wider market (particularly the Chinese economy) makes everything more risky than normal. I think the SP will make a decision around 538 and probably move up to and beyond 550 in the near future, but it could turn fast if we get bad news on the general economic front or even the travel sector (more hot spells and fires in central Europe, more fires in Greece).

Sorry, wrong board for that post. Ignore it please. I've dropped part of my FRES holding at almost 519 in the hope the price drops back to 507/508 where I'll buy it back. Just rationalising my entries in a difficult environment. I think gold could fall further.

Yeah, a rationale on that might be interesting. for me wider market (particularly the Chinese economy) makes everything more risky than normal. I think the SP will make a decision around 538 and probably move up to and beyond 550 in the near future, but it could turn fast if we get bad news on the general economic front or even the travel sector (more hot spells and fires in central Europe, more fires in Greece).