Member Info for Stupmy

Really unimportant. I just appreciate being able to have a discussion with you guys (and gals). Another interesting point though, often we see what we expect (want) to see rather than what is actually there. I certainly hope that what I'm seeing here with TUI is an opportunity rather than a trap. I'm as vulnerable to the seeing what you want to see problem as most I'd imagine. That really is risky behaviour.

Apologies, the bit I was refering to in the first bit of the last post was the following from Masai. Must have seemed a bit confusing.

Ps --- typo ---- should be Stupmy not Stumpy , no disrespect intended.

Stumpy----Totally agree with the last paragraph of your post at 18.49. Sums the situation up well.

Please don't ever worry about trivia like that. No disrespect taken.

Someone, perhaps OSG has made the comment maybe twice or more that these prices 'are available to everyone'. That's an interesting thought if I'm reading it correctly and I've considered it often in the past. At a Placing for example PI's often moan that they were not able to buy shares at the placing price. Then when the open market actually offers those shares below the placing price, the same people won't buy them as it's clear in their minds that 'something smells off'. This is human nature and from an evolutionary point of view this type of behaviour must have some value. In the markets it most likely doesn't have a great deal of value.

To back that up, I've bought more this morning around 474. I don't believe that there is a fundamental problem here. I'm either right or wrong and I most certainly cannot see into the future. At least now TUI has come into line with almost all other RI situations, in that the Shares have been available in the market belowt he RI price (to everyone!).

I'm not sure what happened to bring the US markets off, but it continued after the UK close. There's little chance of a recovery so tomorrow might not be pretty for the UK markets. Fingers crossed TUI has dropped enough for the time being and will be stable.

Good luck at the offy Mike!

The latest data on European manufacturing and service sector shows both falling (same in US). That's 2 consecutive months I believe. The big problem there is the rhetoric that 'this time it's different' in that strength in the service sector was supposed to pull us through the slump in the manufacturing sector. Most frequently (always?) it actually happens the other way round i.e. where the manufacturing sector goes, the service sector (leisure/travel forms part of that) follows. So there is now an expectation of a recession in France, German (already in a technical recession) and the UK, then also the US to follow. That could explain the drop in TUI. Obviously banks tightening lending standards will hit companies with revolving debt hardest.

You know, it really would be something to worry about if there was nothing to worry about and the thought (from the deepest darkest recesses of our subconscious) that there's something coming that we're not aware of is a natural and normal one. It can lead to capitulation which could provide an opportunity in itself (it could be true, but is not necessarily true as things from the dark feed on fear; anyone remember Michael Howard?). My guess is that there is nothing particularly dramatic happening apart from wildfires/volcanoes, bank tightening, revolving debt, COVID and a sinking faith in the future of the discretionary pound/Euro in our dirty little pockets. Nothing to worry about, simples.

It did come over as sketchy so I did find it funny in an ironic way that you call the history of TUI as sketchy. Someone (maybe you asked earlier about history) I did take a look e.g. main listing on LSE in 2014, merger between Thomson and Firstgroup (from memory) and spinning off what they owned of Thomas cook. But at the time the question was asked, it seemed lazy, why not (might not have been you so it's not a dig) go and check. I had to in response to the post. It was a lazy post from someone and it took me a few minutes to find what I needed. So I hold my view that your post seemed sketcy and 'lazy' i.e. lacked the detail it needed. It wasn't meant to start a spat, but these often do. I love alternative views and very much listen to the thoughts of others before dismissing them (that's a joke right there; although I know I'm sometimes prone to confirmation bias amongst many other faults).

Apologies if I came across in a rude manner. Not my intention. Sometimes what I write comes across in a way I don't intend it to.

I didn't ever comment on TUI's history. My interest is here and now and in whether or not I can make a profit by buying 'low' and selling higher.

Your point regarding the drop in SP over time is a good one and I'm very pleased not to have held share for a long period of time. Fingers crossed, I'll not be holding here long enough to see it drop further! Only time will tell.

Pretty sketchy history this company...

Haha, sketchy research! Maybe that was just being lazy, but it seemed almost as if you jumped on a falling share and tried to make it fall a bit more. Funny. As SK says, there have been some 'lazy' posts recently, that don't obvously relate to TUI.

I've taken a few more around 484. That's the price pretty well sat on the zerolag 200MA. That could be viewed as a back test of the break up (Jun 29th). Bit speculative I know, I just believe that the value of the company is higher than suggested by the SP. Time will tell. I have more than I should have and as previously stated will rationalise if given the chance at b/e or above.

It's not just HBR Mike, this isn't to do with the divi or even HBR. It could be linked to UK taxation obviously, but also wider macro-economic factors. US markets dropping again. POO looking shaky again. Lot's of stocks being taken down today. It just feels a bit different HBR because we've just had a good set of results.

Well, close to going below the RI price now. I have that at 5.55 euros or around 4.88 pounds

No change in Shorts on Shorteurope Mike

https://shorteurope.com/details_company.php?company=HARBOUR%20ENERGY%20PLC&land=united_kingdom

Thanks Bonker, you went beyond my pay grade there. I do think though that US discretionary spend is on the back foot and going to get worse. Banks are tightening and have been for some time, so less money is being created. The consumer is paying down debt where possible so that money is actually being destroyed (is that enough to support the dollar?). Do you really think POO can rise materially when demand for goods is down. Imports and exports to and from China are dropping significantly relfecting in part manufacturing and consumption in the US. At the moment as far as I can tell, although demand is down in the US and Europe (also China),for the moment employment is just about holding up. That's going to change now that the nonsesnse about the service sector pulling the manufacturing sector out of it's slump is falling apart. We're very close to seeing increased significant unemployment in key manufacturing (and less key Service sector) roles. That's going to cycle into the lack of demand as discretionary spending most certainly won't be stimualted by that. I think inflation will come down (it's already 4-5% in the US) and could hit the 2%. The impact of that, was beyond what I understood to be honest (hence the 'above my pay grade' comment). To me it looks irreversible at the moment and almost as if we're about to 'reset' the world order (again).

Explain your rationale bonker

If it doesn't close above 235 today, then 221 looks pretty likely. For the moment I'm happy about this (my entries started today at around 236 from memory)and view it as an opportunity. When is Ex-divi date? The run up to that could have the price back on the front foot (before the fall on ex-divi)

Inflation is very likely to fall Bonker, even the BoE is backing off on it's rate rises. As unemployment rises and discretionary spending starts to dry up, inflation will look after itself. What's coming seems to me to go well beyond state banks trying to control inflation. They're fighting to stop the banking system collapsing in the US. Despite the fact we're told all is well, banks are fine etc, in the US banks are drawing down on emergency FED funding lifelines faster, they are not backing off. Not only will interest rate rises stop in the very near future, I think the state of the world economy (driven by China and the US; somewhat also Germany) will actually have state banks bringing interest back down very soon and I don't think inflation will rise as a result.

Https://screenrec.com/share/v0ayZeuP8S

That's how I see it so a close below 235 would seem to increase the risk of further falls. At a certain point I think you have to take a view on the company as well as the TA and I am not currently planning on dropping my holding on a fall back. That could change quickly depending upon circumstances though.

Sorry 'I'm with SK...."

The first wave caused such enormous financial turmoil that states will be very reticent to follow the same pattern of response. Sweden did nothing, taking a herd immunity approach and came bout better than most with respect to health outcomes (and I assume financially). It would have to be an extra-ordinary new viral situation in my view to trigger new restrictions resembling those of the first wave. I'm with SR and don't see it personally.