Member Info for Stupmy

I can't help wondering whether it'll add up. Now hurricane Idala is hitting Florida. Lot's of little things with fires, volcanoes, heat waves, strikes, computer outages etc etc, not exactly plain sailing this holiday season, although I don't know how it compares to an average year.

At the moment price is rejecting 32 or lower. If it was to close below 31.9 then 29.7 or lower becomes probable. Depending how bad this gets (or how bad the press can make it look) it's not impossible that we see prices down to 25.9 or even 23.7 or lower, although there are areas of support before and between those levels. Interesing times particularly for me as I'm lucky enough to have taken my profits and am there for between trades for the moment here.

I think it's going to work fine, I also think we have to hit 470 before a sustained rise. I'm confused as to why all the air-traffic control problems didn't lead to further selling. That in itself might be a suggestion that those PI's still invested are holding tight. We still need some clarity ideally on what that fund is going to do going forward assuming it still has 1.7% or so of the shares. I'm still looking to buy another a few shares to bring my average further down, but despite all the turmoil I think we have a reasonable cushion of protection here. Time will tell.

Currently sat at 17.81, almost a palindrome of 18.71!

You couldn't make it up sometimes. I'd hoped the SP would fall back on the air-traffic control turmoil, but not it's gapped up. If the price drops to 470 ish, I might buy the last few shares I'm interested in here. The chaos in the skies being resolved (backlogs still in place?) doesn't seem likely to be good news. Maybe, the seller has stopped for the moment. Although IAG also up.

I was Stille, I was. Playing fast and loose with my hard earned cash by splashing your greenbacks with our competition!!

More bad news to add to the wildfires, volcanos, storms and floods. UK air-traffic control suffering a nationwide failure that could takes days to resolve (daily mail headline).

Stille, hope you're having fun with Riu, where are you? Mexico? Although I do have to say you should be propping TUI up with your dollar spend.

Bank holiday in the UK today, but not in Germany. I guess the Euro denominated shares might give us an idea to direction for the week. There is still room for a further drop if that fund continues to sell, but I still believe that the SP is attractive at the moment. Majorca had violent storms over the weekend to add to the weather related/natural phenomena headwinds, but I doubt that will significantly affect the bottom line when we report in Sept. The 'Election Variant' and the recent re-introduction of COVID control measures by some businesses (not airports as far as I know) might spook the market a bit, but I'm not reading anything that suggests a significant lockdown is even faintly likely.

Roadie, I still think CCL will drop back to those levels. I'm not exposed, my concern is what would cause such a fall back and would it impact TUI? We've seen TUI dropping out of step with the general market of late and now have a possible reason for that (selling down by that private fund). Be interesting to know the reasons for the selling. Could it be in some way linked to the Russian shareholding? I'm guessing the answer is no as they will still be covered by sanctions, but the reason for that selling could be interest to us all as share holders. Potentially they could have the same again to sell and from my understanding are under no obligation to tell the market if they are selling now that they are under 3%.

What's your rationale for 400p SP Shakin?

Bought again. Guessing my average entry is now 506. Right, that's me dark for the rest of the day as I've other stuff to do. Having said that, I doubt I'll be able to resist looking back in. I'd maybe consider another couple of buys before calling a day here.

We'll have to differ on it I guess. For my wife, she's back at work. Most of her colleagues aren't. New tax rules were brought in meaning that if you're not 100% on site (we're transfrontalier) then you cannot travel on company business for more than 10 days. She is clear that she's more benefit to her company WFH. So I agree some people are well suited to WFH and make it very efficient. States are already making laws to try to force people back to working on site, they are not working as you say as people are resisting and for example senior people in our situation are actually not travelling anymore and are sending their more junior team members to do all the travel. So there is a lot o resistance to moving back to the on-site model. I still think it'll happen. As you say some will not sign those new contracts. I just think that to keep our debt based financial system going, many will feel forced. It's more for interest than anything as I'm full time trading/investing, do what I want and am unaffected, but I really do find it interesting.

Bought again at 473ish. I think hindsight will view this as an opportunity rather than a trap.

And some more around 471. Should have an average around 510 now I guess.

I bought some more around 471. I'll not be around this afternoon, but am guessing the SP fall has stopped for the moment. That RNS has maybe calmed some nerves. We don't know the reason for the selling, but at least we have a reason for the drop in SP that is not necessarily related to problems with TUI. It's a risk, but this looks like a risk worth taking.

sk, you're making it work and some do. my wife is 100% professional with it and when she was here at home i rarely saw her. she agrees it's more efficient for her at home with video conferencing. sadly it's not the same for everyone, lot's of parents are working and looking after their kids. i have friends 'wfh' and from what they're saying from me it's more like they are taking the **** from home. personally, i think once we go through a bad patch of unemployment, new hires will sign contracts forcing them to work from the office. it wasn't mean to be a view on whether wfh is possible, it's a view that wfh doesn't work well for a lot those doing it and it doesn't serve the companies paying their salaries. if it continues, how will all the commercial real estate be repurposed? we've already lost most of retail from the high streets , turning many towns into the wild west where you buy drugs, coffee and beer, go to charity shops or poundland, but only when it's light! let's face it bobbies on the beat went years ago and what we have left won't respond to most of what they used to respond to. i think that we have radical changes to come, but it will have to be after the mother of all recessions.

Yes, in a thin market the selling could have had an amplified effect on the SP. Be interesting to see if the SP recovers quite quickly when the traders are back at their desks. St Ledger's day is Sept 16th (Sat). Maybe after that we'll see a pick-up in trading activity. Of course that could be further selling!.

I have total short positions in GER at 1.5% and at the moment they are not showing as having made a big profits (although at a stated 1.45 million profit it seems likely to be out of date). So, There are no active shorts in the UK. So TUI has not been viewed as a sitting duck for shorts, but some believe there's money to be made on the down-side.

There are many reasons that Union INvestment have dropped half of their holding could be anything and could be unrelated to TUI as a business. Also they had to notify because they dropped below 3%. Since they retain 1.79% they could continue to sell (if that data is up to date). If they continued to sell, no further notifications would need to be made so you simply won't know one way or another. This type of selling can take a long time to complete, particularly if it's not stressed selling as they will want the best possible price. Could be that PI's bailing has brought it off this far and this fund will continue selling if the price rises to whatever their threshold is.

No idea if this is the bottom.

It seems to be suggesting that they've sold approximately 5 million shares (half of their holding. I base that on 290 million shares outstanding and moving from 3.49% to 1.79% ownership. That could very well explain why the TUI SP has fallen out of line with the general market.

The important thing to understand would be the reasoning behind that rationalisation of their position. Be interesting also to know whether they made a loss/profit or broke even and whether it's finished or not.

There's plenty of risk here so, although I'm doing what I say I'm doing, I'm certain not advising anyone else to follow. You have to lead with your ideas and follow those. You'll be wrong or right in all likelihood. I've been offered loans from bank of wifey in the past. I have never once accepted. This is a risky game and it's best played with your own money.

I'm not convinced that central banks are in charge at all. They're just trying to make it seem as if they are. Money is being drawn out of the global economy after years of having it pumped in. That has to hit the man on the street at some point which has to hit demand. As demand goes down then inflation comes down. The central banks raising interest rates aimed to do that, but at a time when it was almost certainly going to happen without intervention. US/Europe are panicked about inflation, but China is exporting deflation and I doubt there is anything we can do about that now. Evergrande and Country garden are on the verge of collapse (property market in China), Commercial property on fire sale in the US (WFH culture after COVID), many of those WFH are actually walking the dog! There are very likely going to be a lot of job losses (probably necessary now to reset the mentality of the WFhomers). That's going to lead to less discretionary spending power. Eventually, new laws will force people back into office space to save the economy. What's the point paying for office space that youré employees aren't using. Very tough times. Likely to get worse, just the when that needs pinning down. These things have a tendency to take longer than expected to come about.

It was you SK I think who was making the point that 'this price is available to everyone'. Sorry if I was giving credit to OSG in your place. Was I correctly interpreting what you were saying/thinking?