Member Info for Stupmy

Still no addtional shorts on TUI Ger. Nothing at all reported on TUI LSE. The wider market doesn't view it as a sitting duck.

I've been waiting for an entry here for a little while and wonder if today is the day! Here's a chart to show why I've entered a long position around 185 (spread is over 2p). The lower arrows show a downside gap and a support. Below that I'll probably drop out. The down facing arrows above show a potential resistance (a close above might be a buy signal; although in a down trend it's value must be questioned) and an upside gap to around 200. Speculative trade.

https://screenrec.com/share/76oSN98HzT

Stille, I'd have argued that there have been better times to buy and S&P tracker, having said that I'm wrong on my short for the moment!!

I think it's finished and that the bottom is in. I'm adding on the leveraged longs. I see a rise back to 480-490 this afternoon.

SK, it seems (by my S&P short) that you're not alone with those thoughts! Bu g ger! Still, on the face of it, if you're right it should help TUI going into and through the winter season. Let's hope we get lots of snow on the mountains, sun on the beaches and vaccines at our primary care outlets!!

Sorry SK, the reason for the post is that I think we're heading into recession and that the state banks can't do anything to stop it now. If that's the case, POO should come down in the nearish future.

SK, it's interesting that the poor jobs news from the US led investors/traders to believe that inflation was under control and would fall back so I guess they've taken the position that there will be more discretionary spending power which will lead to a pause/reversal in FED interest rate hikes (feeding again into discretionary spending) and lead to increase in numbers employed again feeding into increased discretionary spending. I don't believe this (and am on the wrong side of that idea as I'm short US500). I think that people are prioritising paying down debt, paying essentials and where they can even saving. Credit card and motor loan defaults are increasing. China's Evergrande and Country Garden are pretty well insolvent and that market is very unlikely to respond positively whatever the government do (unless they wipe the debt clean and build the houses that had been promised to the people who paid for them). Is NFP's this afternoon? I suspect we'll see further weakness if it is. Will that make the market nervous? I hope so

It's pretty well the way I saw it Hexam, but you never know so I asked in case there was a rationale. I couldn't see any value in any single post from this person and will treat him/her as someone that knows not that he knows not and follow Omar Khayyam's advice to shun him (unless of course he answers in a rational way).

400 is nothing for that holding Stille, fingers crossed it will quickly seem like a history. I can't easily significantly lower my entry price now, so instead of adding to my share holding, I'm openeing leveraged positions to try to take advantage of any rise we see. Just quick trades really to make some pocket money (or lose some!). Good luck.

I hope this works Stille, I'm currently down slightly more (or about the same) as my overall profit from previous trades. I don't really want to give it all up. I'm hoping to tripple my previous profit

Hash, the reason I consdiered the 463, but did not state it) was that I felt the SP was under pressure with PI's losing faith, a fund selling down with potentially 1.7% of TUI's shares still to sell and a gap to just under 470 on the 2h chart). As gaps often do not represent supports/resistances, I looked for what might be the next trigger for buying. The SP is currently below the RI price and there's very little to go on for me TA wise on where this would stop. If we were to see stops hit then I considered the lower bollinger band on the 2h chart as a potential start to the buying (that was the 463). After that I moved to a 15 min chart and watched for the 1433 and 622 stochs to perk up. The crossing the 20 line represented a buy for me (although I started buying before that happened).

Much of it's gains should have read 'much of it's losses'. Apologies.

i didn't, i said 470 (expecting in fact 469.5/470). in the back of my mind i considered 463 as very possible, but did not state that. often in this kind of trade, a large fall on open is followed by the sp clawing back much of it's gains once the us opens in the afternoon. after lunch is the time to watch now, at that time the market participants will try to put a value on the company before the weekend. fridays can be a bit of **** day for that as many don't like to hold over weekends, which might be especially true if the us has a bank holiday on monday.

I asked you once before Shakin and got no answer. What is your rationale for your 450 and now 425 idea? Looking back at your history, you appear to simply throw a number out, then reduce it when the SP drops. Is there more to your approach?

Thanks Stille, currently sat on a whopping loss mind. My mean entry is just under 502 and I'm holding more than had been my intention.

Market is struggling to value the company on an emotional basis. My guess is that lots of PI's are now rattled and the fall is feeding on itself. Fingers crossed this is the darkest hour before dawn.

Just bought more on that rapid fall to 461. Be interesting to see whether this is the capitulation event that marks the bottom (or a sign of deep rooted troubles in the company!). Fingers crossed I'm being brave rather than stupid

From a TA perspective the SP has now done what it needed to do (my comment on it having to get to 470/actually slightly below). It's currently at 468.8. There is no guarantee that it won't drop further, but I'm watching very closely now for what I'm hoping will be my final entries.

I think it's consolidating. I think we will see 470, possibly lower. It's not possible to say the bottome is in until the SP turns and starts to rise. Following a consolidation period the price will leave that consolidation zone either to the upside or to the downside. Common sense suggests it'll move to the upside, but I don't see any evidence of that yet. If there was some renewed selling from that fund, then we could see a capitulation event where PI's drop out and the SP falls a fair bit, it's not impossible. I haven't bought more yet.

I added yesterday and also today at around 18. Fingers crossed it's bottomed and will soon rise from here.

Well, for the moment the price has well and truly rejected the downside, so those saying it wouldn't have a serious impact seem to have nailed it. I wasn't able to exploit the move so I'll watch and see whether the bears can push it down again over time.