George Frangeskides, Exec-Chair at Alba Mineral Resources, discusses grades at the Clogau Gold Mine. Watch the full video here.
DavidHos,
"I suspect it’s a couple of buys for the same buyer worked over the previous 2-3 trading days"
Exactly. Churning by the same group. I've seen it several times on various shares.
The hundreds of small trades to move the sp.
It was really obvious at TLY, where there were hundreds of small trades to push the sp lower. Yet there's only a handful of PIs.
GeordieChris,
"Surely few people are selling now that the stock has momentum and sentiment is firmly back....Anyone any ideas?"
It's been talked up. There hasn't been any TU to justify such a rise, just lots of media tips. Why the sudden interest this year? The CEO's huge 7m options are exercisable in a year.
The sp is at around previous year's year end closing price, hence why some are selling. Look at last year, in Feb the sp was 21.5p before it fell during the year, only to end the end at similar sp.
Previous closing sp:
Dec 2020 22p
Dec 2021 24p
Dec 2022 10.20p
Feb 2023 21.5p
Dec 2023 23.75p
Thordon,
Good summary.
"its the mix that is attractive with 5 clients in UK & Northern Ireland & Southern Ireland."
They don't have 5 clients. They have 5 Nations that they provide their services in. In fact, they have dozens of clients and potential clients for Urgent Care division.
The 5 Nations - all 4 UK Nations plus Republic of Ireland.
Each of the 4 UK Nations have their own NHS.
Each of the 4 UK Nations has lots of 'local health bodies'. NHS England has 42 ICBs as follows:
https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/find-your-local-integrated-care-board/
Each ICB has it's own funds, which it uses for the services they require. This is after they have paid for mandatory services, as required by the government.
Each of the UK Nations has similar 'local NHS Bodies'
There are over 60 such 'local NHS Bodies' across all 4 UK Nations. That's over 60 client/potential clients.
TLY also provide services to HMP. There are over 100 HMPs in UK.
TLY also provide services for Elective Care, higher margin business. Here they have dozens of clients/potential clients, including Republic of Ireland.
TLY also provide services to Company Wellness Services. The number of clients/potential clients can be in the 100s.
This is the power of their diversified business model.
UK house prices rise again but Halifax forecasts up to 4% drop in 2024
Growth rates driven by shortage of properties on market, says mortgage lender, with typical home worth £287,105
"However, Halifax said that the monthly, quarterly and annual growth rates were driven by a shortage of properties on the market rather than strong buyer demand."
"However, analysts at Goldman Sachs have estimated that UK homeowners are facing a £19bn increase in mortgage costs by the end of next year as millions more fixed-rate deals expire, putting additional strain on household finances.
Halifax still expects house prices to fall by up to 4% this year as high interest rates and inflation stretch mortgage affordability.
The lender said that the price of an average UK property would fall by between 2% and 4% this year, despite a new year mortgage rate-cutting spree by major lenders."
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/05/uk-house-prices-rise-for-third-month-in-row-but-are-forecast-to-drop-this-year
UK house prices rise again but Halifax forecasts up to 4% drop in 2024
Growth rates driven by shortage of properties on market, says mortgage lender, with typical home worth £287,105
"However, Halifax said that the monthly, quarterly and annual growth rates were driven by a shortage of properties on the market rather than strong buyer demand."
"However, analysts at Goldman Sachs have estimated that UK homeowners are facing a £19bn increase in mortgage costs by the end of next year as millions more fixed-rate deals expire, putting additional strain on household finances.
Halifax still expects house prices to fall by up to 4% this year as high interest rates and inflation stretch mortgage affordability.
The lender said that the price of an average UK property would fall by between 2% and 4% this year, despite a new year mortgage rate-cutting spree by major lenders."
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/05/uk-house-prices-rise-for-third-month-in-row-but-are-forecast-to-drop-this-year
Hallsworthy
"Nice to see River and Mercantile have taken an opening position of 2.53% or 6.6m shares."
Really?
2.53% with 6.6m shares?? How do you work that out given there are around 680m shares in issue?
The CEO has 7m options. So, according to your calculation, does his options equal 2.5% off the company?
The CEO's 7m options are more than R&M shareholding. That says a lot.
The LTIP has been designed to reward, incentivise and retainMr Khan to deliver sustainable growth for shareholders. The deemed date of award is 24 February 2022, which is the date Mr Khan was appointed CEO. Under the LTIP,Mr Khan has been awarded 7,227,273 nominal cost long term incentive options ("LTIP Options " ) over ordinary shares of £0.001 each in the
Company.
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/x21q5mw/export
StrinctlyZinc
"maybe this is where meaningful II ownership takes off."
Backs up my opinion that this is being talked up.
The CEO's has huge 7m options which are exercisable in a year.
Lack of strong revenue growth.
Declining cash.
No evidence of significant holdings by institutions.
No evidence of significant buying by institutions.
Kilman
"On the share register on hVivo(updated 13th December) it lists Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management as having 3.19% ownership"
You mentioned Canaccord Wealth Management.
Canaccord is TLY's Nomad.
Canaccord also own over 3% of TLY.
Canaccord had a 30p target on TLY, compared to HVO Nomad's target of 29p.
The Nomads are closer to the business than media and PIs.
"if you anonymised the financial accounts of hVivo and TLY and provided them to 100 investors and asked them where they would put there money. "
Investors look for potential.
The vast majority of potential in HVO is already factored into the price. The Nomad target price is 29p.
With TLY, the vast majority of downside is already factored into the price. The potential is not.
Investors look for shares where there's best potential.
TLY's Nomad, Canaccord had a 30p target price on TLY.
HVO's Nomad, Liberum a 29p target price on HVO.
Using the Nomad target prices:
HVO's upside is majority factored in the price.
TLY's upside is around 500%
Kilman,
Thanks for the II holding figures.
It proves my point, there is no evidence of significant buying or holdings by institutions.
The number held are mainly 1-2%, which is hardly significant.
Now my other point about the huge options held by the CEO:
The CEO's was granted huge options of 7m, around 1%, exercisable in a year, so his options are around the same number held by institutions!!!
If posters say the CEO's options are not huge then the number held by institutions aren't either, are they?.
If posters say the number held by institutions is huge then the number of options held by CEO must also be considered huge.
The shares on loan were around 1.5%. Therefore, the same posters must believe the number of shares is huge as well.
The posters can't have it both ways.
BTW, Liontrust also increased their holding in TLY, post H1.
They own 5.25% of TLY.
For holdings declared > 3%, around 40% of TLY is held by institutionS, holding > 3% each.
Hallsworthy,
Kilman posted his opinions in reply to my bear points.
You don't have an answer and are incapable of answering, which is why you answer with questions.
Try countering the bear points.
CEO has huge 7m options, exercisable in a year. CF bought some at 26p 2.5 years. I'm saying the company is being talked up so the CEO can exercise the huge options.
What's your opinion?
There's no evidence of significant buying by institutions during 2021, 2022, 2023.
Can you provide evidence, TR1s, to counter this?
There's no evidence of institutionS holding > 3%
Can you provide evidence of institutionS holding > 3%?
Cash declined since fy2023, despite money coming in from Polb since Sept and the selling by warrant holders.
Can you provide evidence that cash has increased?
Huge number of shares on Loan.
Can you provide evidence that there hasn't been a huge number of shares on loan?
Lack of strong revenue growth. Despite the company supposedly growing strongly, there's a lack of strong revenue growth.
Can you provide evidence of strong revenue growth expectation for fy2024, compared to 2022, 2023?
That's a start.
"It's long understood that this is the exit strategy for CF. You can find videos on this from 2 or 3 years ago. So there is no surprise here. So PIs expect(fingers crossed) that at some point this will happen."
During the past 2-3 yrs of expectation of a sale of the company.
The sp action has been as follows:
Dec 2020 22p
Dec 2021 24p
Dec 2022 10.20p
Feb 2023 21.5p
Dec 2023 23.75p
With the Company Nomad current target of 29p.
What is the target of the other broker, Cavendish (ex-Finncap)?
They've retained at 35p target price for years. Used to be mid 40's, didn't it?
Why did Cavendish (ex-Finncap) drop the target price? Wasn't it because DiM has failed and so was put on the back burner because it's failed to meet the company's expectations due to the investing environment?
How much of HVO's revenue has come from DiM over the past 3 years?
Kilman
Thanks for your opinions.
"Fair enough that there are currently no 3%+ II. "
Thanks for confirming it's a bear point. 3 yrs and no significant buying by institutions. It may change but so far no evidence in 3 yrs.
Around 40% of IIs hold TLY and some were increasing recently.
"FFS on these boards all shares get ramped, including you on TLY! Sure we might aswell shut down the forum then. "
Exactly my point, if bear points can be countered then it makes the bull case stronger. If the bull points can be countered then it makes the bear case stronger. All the information should be there for investors to make an informed decision.
eg I countered, with evidence, on TLY thread, Hallsworthy's misconception has only 1 client. Pharmas use 1 or 2 companies for testing their potential drugs/vaccines. It isn't thousands of of clients nor hundreds of contracts.
"No a red flag, is dropping contracts, dropping revenues, disintegrating cash balance, chairman changes, dropping multi year paid interim dividend.. None of which has happened to hVivo."
Companies win/lose contracts, just like HVO had cancelled contracts. What happened to DiM, which was supposed to be the jewel in the crown? No contracts attached to it and cancelled. Missed expectations/spin offs. Red flag.
Chairman changes!!! Companies do change directors, it's not unsual.
You've forgotten HVO changed their CEO < 2 yrs ago and then the BoD granted him huge options to entice him to stay!!
How many shares has HVO's CEO bought in 2yrs, since he was appointed? TLY new chairman was appointed just 6 weeks ago, he's already bought 1.5m.
"Announced first dividend last year and a regular one starting this year."
Hasn't happened, so again jam tomorrow. They INTEND to pay a NOMINAL dividend later this year, just happens to be before the CEO's options are exercisable. Backs up my point, this is being talked up.
"I still believe that this is a timing issue but we shall see in the update for January"
Again, it's all about timing. Might happen in time for the huge options exercisable. Again, backs my point this is being talked up.
"It's long understood that this is the exit strategy for CF. You can find videos on this from 2 or 3 years ago. So there is no surprise here. So PIs expect(fingers crossed) that at some point this will happen."
Exactly my point. It is being talked up because they want to sell the business.
Crucially, the company Nomad, who advise the BoD, have a 29p target price. Any offers around that price and they will advice the BoD it's a fair offer.
So I can't see anything which changes my opinion about the bear points.
Hallsworthy,
To help you understand how the NHS operates and to show there's not just the 1 client, as I've shown previously.
The UK govn collects taxes and allocates funds to the NHS. Each of the 4 UK Nations is allocated funds for their use. So 4 separate NHS organisations.
The way those resources are allocated is down to each of the NHS organisations, ie per UK Nation.
There are over 60 'local health bodies' within the 4 UK Nations.
Each of the local health bodies decides the best way to allocate their funding, giving priority to mandatory services.
Republic of Ireland has it's own Health Service. RoI became an independent sovereign nation 100years ago!!
So, that's over 70 clients and potential clients already.
Then there's the other growing businesses, with higher margins, within TLY's diversified business model. Hundreds of clients/potential clients.
The fact you quote 1 says everything about your lack of knowledge.
NHS allocation of resources was made independent of the govn in 2012.
Keep up, it might help you post facts rather than misleading comments.
NHS resource allocation is controlled by the NHS not the govn
"Structure. The English NHS is controlled by the UK government through the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC), which takes political responsibility for the service. Resource allocation and oversight was delegated to NHS England, an arms-length body, by the Health and Social Care Act 2012."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Health_Service_(England)#:~:text=Structure,-Main%20article%3A%20Health&text=The%20English%20NHS%20is%20controlled,and%20Social%20Care%20Act%202012.
With NHS England:
What are integrated care systems?
Integrated care systems (ICSs) are partnerships that bring together NHS organisations, local authorities and others to take collective responsibility for planning services, improving health and reducing inequalities across geographical areas.
There are 42 ICSs across England, covering populations of around 500,000 to 3 million people.
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/integrated-care-systems-explained
Hallsworthy,
Bear point.
There's no evidence of significant buying by Institutions...2021, 2022, 2023.
There's no evidence of institutionS holding > 3%.
Why no interest by institutions?. PIs yest but why lack of interest from institutionS.
Look what happened to a lot of covid shares which were ramped on PI sentiment?
That is a red flag.
Discuss
Hallsworthy,
Despite receiving money due to exercise of warrants and revenues from Polb as of Q3, the expected cash is declining. You would expect cash to be increasing and not declining.
It might explain why they don't pay regular, normal, dividends.
Might also explain why this is being talked up and they wanting to sell it.
30th June 2023 £31.3m
Expected cash Dec 31st: £28m
July TU:
"Net cash of £31.3 million as at 30 June 2023 (H1 2022: £15.9 million)"
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/rno86jw/export
Discuss
Hallsworthy,
Feel free to counter the fact that the CEO has huge 7m options and CF bought some shares at 26p.
The CEO bought £50k worth in Sept 2022.
Directors make small buys in an attempt to get the price up ready for a big sell.
The company is being talked up as the huge options granted to the CEO will become exercisable in a year.
Discuss.
Hallsworthy,
"Super dangerous to invest in a company with effectively a single client. If the government look elsewhere, then the entire company could become worthless overnight"
They don't have 1 client.
In what way will the government, whoever is in power, look elsewhere?
So you saying the UK government will change the law and disband the Scottish, Welsh, NI executives?
The UK govn will invade Republic of Ireland and implement UK laws there? The UN and EU will just sit by and let that happen?
That's a bit of a longshot, isn't it?
Magoo,
"I can see why you are bitter and twisted"
I posting company newsflow, contrarian opinions but there's a distinct lack of analysis or countering the bear points.
I'm not bitter at all. I've seen all this before several times. Confirmation bias because the sp has risen just before a TU.
Look at previous sp reaction. The sp was around these levels before, only to fall back.
In Sept 2021, when I 1st looked at these, the sp was 27p. That was following a newspaper tip as well.
Dec 2020 22p
Dec 2021 24p
Dec 2022 10.20p
Feb 2023 21.5p
Dec 2023 23.75p
Kilman,
"If it was PI's ramping here that was causing the sp rise then it would be a lot higher and on a lot of other stocks too including TLY."
The Nomad's fair value here is 29p. Why would the gang push the sp a lot higher. The current sp has settled around 26p, around 10% within the Nomad's target.
The ramping, coupled with hundreds of small trades to push the sp higher.
Yet there's no evidence of significant buying by institutions. No evidence of institutions owning > 3%
so it's PIs.
With TLY, it's the opposite:
Hundreds of small sell trades, coupled with a surge in deramping to push the sp lower.
TLY's shares on loan surged in Jan 2023.
2022:
Dec 297157 0.16%
2023
Jan 4650990 2.54%
Feb 5528394 3%
Aug 7026432 3.81%
Look at the posts on TLY by Hallsworthy, moniman and Twogood2die...the success of the companies they ramp is dependent on TLY's sp falling. Why?
Similar reactions at trmr, nano, byot etc etc when they were being ramped with lots of small trades and BS ramps..I warned of the red flags. Instead of countering the red flags, they attacked TLY.
Why TLY? because it's illiquid and easy to manipulate the sp.
No point in the rampers discussing the company business because their points always fail