Member Info for StrummerJones

Hi Viking.
Yep GGP been great, likely will be more so agree, with H update and S to come. No arguments there. But must always keep eyes open is my only point. As John L sang..."blind acceptance is a sign, of stupid fools who stand in line'... so believe yep, but dont get to comfortable, question everything your told. Cheers.

Good post Christophe.
There are a lot of other interesting AIM shares out there. GGP has had a tremendous run & if Scally hits the mark in likely a week or twos time, will probably again. But at the moment this share sits waiting that news rather in high expectation but becalmed. I am no de-ramper. Hold 2.725 Mill here at Avg now 4.3. So well in the game. But... as all sensible investors do, always considering options too. Cheers.

Hi Troajan, plus a couple of others. A few days back with SP at 31p I posted some analysis I did that indicated that whilst a mid to longer term potential good play RE its Copper. You responded very kindly with knowing nods...This company short term was likely to underperform. Its turnaround will take time etc.
There seems a high degree of froth here today on the back of a rise 31 to 37ish. But can I ask what fundamentally in the mid term turnaround plan has changed. This SP has been far higher. So is this more of the usual AIM P&D crew hovering over a, yes good prospect, but no, not a sustainable increase, just a current traders play ground.... Or has the recovery overnight accelerated...?
Just interested, as certainly see this as an investment for 8 months hence. But no interest in being caught in a standard P&D right now...

It's interesting. You could normally put these progressive sell offs down to a distressed PI or II I guess? However this repeated drip drip 100k, 200k, 300k of sells have been going on for what seems weeks now... It's not even peak selling, as it was happening when we were at 6p and at 10p, and seems like all stops both up and down that line in between.

Curious strategy if it is one party only and not distressed... personally not too bothered as the underlying business case hasn't changed as far as I am aware. As said a few times though we do need more consistent buying pressure and this will I am sure lift off into finance news. In meantime if funds available then buying ops here for sure very soon. Maybe Wasa will get his post house sale top up op in Feb after all?

Hi Lethal.
OK my view:
Let's assume the world markets dont hit chaos. Which with FIAT money now being printed at a rate of knots is a real possibility... Then its likely that commodity metals like Nickel, Copper, Lithium and the like will be good investments I agree. Aside from a gold interest (GGP), I am long on Nickel already (HZM). Both of which hold large proven Tier 1/2 resources.

As regards Copper. I like it. EVs, wind farms etc. If we dont melt down next 6 months then yes if I had more funds would actively pursue it. So to ans question. If Rock can actually prove a high grade & minable (commercial) graded resourse (big ask) then yes. Very good. Its Oz, so a good jurisdiction also. At the moment I have been analysing RMM. Hold no shares there. But that's also a good pitch - Canada. So a similarly good locale. Strong grades, but to date a poorly run company. Now with new management.

That would be my pick, not now, but for 8-12 months hence? It will take that turnaround. So wrt Rock I would say, cut the too n frow flannel and prove to me, before RMM do that the Copper projects you have are at least as good. You have another 1-2 Quarters to convince before they turn round. If not then no. I would look elsewhere. Just my opinion. HTH.

Hope you are right Beardozer.... no axe to grind. But let's see. No one happier than me if this one finally proves up something worthwhile after all the swiss cheese rinse n repeat drilling. I'll see you mid Feb and as have said. Our friend Mr Market will out the truth for sure. If it ever holds even 2 - 2.3p without being butchered by our trading chums will be happy as a start. Just dont believe all you read by a few new accounts that login just prior to JORC n post 40 "boom" messages.... "History Repeats.... Has To, No One Listens !"....

To my mind Swest, it's almost harder to know when to slice than when to invest. So do agree.
I worked out the other day if I hadn't sliced my GGP and simply held till the recent 38p peak... I would have ended up with 2.9 Million quid... that was off about a £270k investment over the last 18 months. But I did. Partly as I liked the story here. Partly as I wanted funds for my kids etc. So that's the other side of the coin. Pretty good investors say "let your winners ride". Its the hardest call of all in my book as said. As it stands I still had a reasonable amount in GGP and want to see the 2 latest drill results upcoming before considering position there. I also (world economy withstanding) always saw HZM as a potential multiple upside investment. Still do. But yeah take your point. Has to he a time to move on. Just not yet here for me. Cheers.

Hi Swest.
Your approach sounds like a pragmatic way to trade these volatile AIM shares to me?
So hold the majority, but play the unsustainable bubbles. Understand.
Of course if our CEO drops the big one unexpectedly and your out then the trading pot will have to find another home.
My issue currently & as mentioned before is that I have two core AIM holds. But at least 3 or 4 other really interesting options after some research time in past months. Currently for now no new funds though. So openly been mulling over my options. For now sitting on hands. But as one of my potential picks has already done about 150% since I listed it as a future candidate a couple of months ago I can ready see how people get tempted! Too many distractions about with market offerings available at the moment.
Mind you, with all the issues in the world right now it's no hard luck story and a nice problem to have of course.
Cheers.

Duncan/Daz.
I have been reading this board and a few others I am interested in since first investing in AIM mid 2019. Your right this one has a handful of real SMEs (Subject Matter Experts). I dont go with the view held by some here that everything one of them says is gospel. But you know what they say is worthwhile input to your own decision making. IMO reflect on Paddy, TakingMyTime, Bamps and Hydrogen here. Other boards have similar quality posters with in depth too. Say AimToDeath, Bwana, Wasa on HZM, Troajan on RMM etc. Seem to be more here true, but a bigger posting base. The herd hasn't arrived so much on the lesser profile alternative market shares. There is good opinions here outside of the SMEs that also warrant careful consideration. But also a few "BB defender Rotwirllers" who arnt always exactly objective as have a real zeal for this share. So like everywhere, make your own mind up as you go along on who to regard & who to be wary of.
Just my view as an experienced mainstream investor, but a relative newby to the wild west of AIM. Cheers.

Hi 600.
Yeah nit to be taken too seriously, just musing. But that point about buying pressure stalking or not really justifying rise is the semi serious one I have noted on a few AIM shares as they top out.... perhaps a clue to the trader types... cheers.

Saw Bwanas post about buying more at 9.1ish, then of course falls to 8.6 etc. Got me thinking. Have always been an investor. 35 years on main markets etc. Only last 2 years on AIM I admit. But gradually been thinking on the very common "Trader" types that frequent this wild west saloon...Mussed on how they do it. So here's me semi serious theory to date....

So... a couple of days ago here we peaked up at 10p.. check. A few of us testing that they would buy off us..750k+ for 9.96 etc, check. Also I mentioned at time that had noticed the welcome rise 6.5 to 10... whilst logically justified on assets, was in no way supported by actual sustainable buy volumes. Buy rates fairly unimpressive etc. Now with hind sight it was as feared rather overbought n perhaps the clue... Check?

So... if one is a sharp trader is that not the clue then, and time to sell. Since all say, nowt up in a straight line etc.. The big difference to the flurred increases on GGP over its last years big rise. Was that it went up fast in bursts. But... but... then sat for several days even weeks. Buying was still strong. Continued strongish, even when it stalled at 5p, 12p, 24p .. But it rested. The only real time it fell back was either Covid related (March 2020), or again when it really went frothy and rose with news rumour, but again NO strong supporting buying pressure. Most recent was rise to 38p from 30 odd... not supported really by buys, so temporarily at least back to sold 33-34p range awaiting proper news and real buys as of now...

So strikes me on AIM then, to trade, as the likes of Mr Notready etc do..., track the frothy gains that dont have the buying backup. A big backup. My experience limited as is says that when this peaks and starts to slow... Sell, sell big time. As the back track is coming. Then (sorry Bwana ;-) ). Only buy in after full buying pressure returns & not on way down. As it's got a little way to fall perhaps? Theoretically (I know its hindsight) My own concerns raised on buy volumes to back us up 2 days ago could have made me another 118,000 shares (sell 750k at 9.96 - best test price I got... buy back now at 8.6p say). Extrapolate to my whole holding I could have another 1.85 million today...

This isnt serious (well it's a half ar*ed fun analysis with maybe a grain of truth..). As of course you have to judge everything well. But starting to see how pro traders do it maybe? Look at fast risers. Review sentiment v actual sustained and ongoing buying pressure (or more critically a lack of it), then look to exploite the stuttering top... this of course dont include the seeming AIM market staples of BB P&D crowds to catch the vulnerable etc. Nor the news that lands after you sell unexpectedly... But is just one thread on me evolving understanding of how da amateur traders make it work.
Just fiddling about n finking on stuff waiting for our proper finance news rise... ;-)
Cheers all.

Yeah sure understand AIM. But fact remains could sell 750k+ only less than 24hrs ago for appreciably more. Maybe some traders not too bright.... ho hum.

I do wonder about some people sometimes.
Do individuals wake up, ignore the recent past, see the MMs making a market and reacting to a lack of buy pressure by dropping a price.... So decide to sell. Really?

Here we know nothing has changed company wise since yesterday. If anything a day closer to good news. Yet some people who could have sold at near 10p yesterday now decide to off load reasonable numbers in the lower 9s ?

I guess they panic as the MMs take it down. But logically this is the time to buy and take advantage surely.... shakes head, exits stage left and accepts doesnt really understand the world....

I agree Nobby.
Generally only check this one about every 3 weeks, as in 15 months invested here have a fairly well documented view of how this always pans out. Only checked in yesterday as curious to see what happened to our 50 post guys round the RNS... fairly predictable though it was. Will probably next check early Feb to see if this much touted JORC has any sustained impact. As said very much in the hope so, but not as yet convinced camp. Cheers.

I have been reading up on, and watching this one for a while. Please correct me if wrong, but it seems mid to longer term a potentially very strong play? Assuming copper prices hold, which seems quite plausible given that generally commodities have a positive outlook - EVs, Green etc

But the general feeling on balance I get is that the company needs re focusing and turning round. That short term results from the Canadian operation will likely be unspectacular, and that value will only start to out on the strong propects in H2 (all being well). So there is likely room for the price here to drop some more before it starts to climb, or at the least there will be no short term big leg ups?

Those with funds coming in the new financial year may therefore still have a good entry point, reading between the lines seems to be the company message, but dont leave it much later.

Fair summary or not?
Cheers.

Hi Lethal.
Just thought would have a look how this was doing after the last RNS. Presently surprised that even though its dropped back it's not totally bombed (as was the pattern last year when the traders hit it for six repeatedly). Looks like it rose off its 0.7p floor up to 1.25p odd and is only now gradually slipping back a bit? Assume this is partly as more are holding on for that promised JORC update his time isnt it due when (?) End of month / start of Feb if I recall?

I also note that the smattering of new accounts posting 30, 40 or 50 posts in a few days to ramp the price I warned about a few weeks ago have funnily enough now melted away... odd that ;-)... so did the job for their pay masters and allowed them to take there 30% out of the rise one assumes.... Looks more now like recognisable posters who genuinely believe there is long term prospects here now. I guess the proof of that will be if the SP can take a genuine sustainable leg up after that end of month update and not succumb to the trading whims of the P&D accounts as it always has in the past.. We shall see. As I still have a decent holding here I am hoping so... cheers.

Yes they were doing that the other day too. My point was more that daily volumes during the recent mini rise have not / are still not that great including any after hours stuff. Once they start to motor then I agree this can take off hopefully. Just would prefer the buying to really support next big leg up, and like the GGP rise be unstoppable by the inevitable day traders we will suffer. Cheers.

...but personally quite happy with the share consolidating (or so it seems) about this 9.7 - 9.9ish level. My thought is that its had good leg ups from the recent dips into the 6s. But still important to note on low volumes interestingly. E.G today so far only about 6 mill changing hands thus far, about even buy to sell (if you belive the stats). But no great jump or plunge. Obviously all waiting for finance news, offtakes etc. But in meantime seems preferable to slow climb and not out sprint the support. These buy volumes, as much as we would like it, dont yet support a faster rise, and would only precipitate then a trading sell off one suspects? Just my view. Cheers.

Fyi.
Few mins ago bid/ask was 9.8 to 9.9.
They would take 300k shares off me at 9.91. So above the ask... but NT'd me on a buy for only £77 ! So assume that their cupboard is bare and that again must be decent background buy pressure, as normal run of the mill liquidity here is the other way round.... interesting?

On current value in AIM market:
53% HZM
44% GGP
3% in a couple of other recovery stocks (that may or may not ?).

I really like the look of a couple of other prospects and would very much like to set up positions there. But no more funds at the moment, unless I slice the big two above. Which I am not inclined too as IMO strong prospects and news on the way for both.
Cheers.