Member Info for stokey12

Bubble2021 ref 08.20 post it was an unconfirmed doing the rounds on the internet and no I did not start it. Personally I doubt that JW will sell because of his personal connection with HARL.

Bubble2021 ref 07.58 post the last valuation I saw was £50m do you know if this is still the valuation. Also can you recall anything about earnings once operational?

I think it would be useful to clarify a few things about the IslandMagee Gas Storage Project (IM) for those of you who are new to HARL. IM is a project to develop a series of salt caverns to store initially gas and then hydrogen. The development is being done by a wholly owned subsidiary of HARL. How the project will be funded has not been confirmed. There is at least one funding option that would leave HARL with 100% control. There are other options which would reduce the amount of the control that HARL has this includes a totally sale of the project. Last year the final license that was needed to advance the project was granted by DAERA in Northern Ireland. This license is now subject to a Judicial Review that will be heard in January next year.

If HARL was able as I hope to retain full ownership of IM then due to the way the license is worded it will give HARL a guaranteed revenue stream for at least 40 years. Some other members on this board can explain the amount of this revenue but I believe it should be sufficient to cover the entire running costs of HARL.

In relation to the Judicial Review while it would be heard in January I am not entirely convinced that we would see a judgement in January. The reason for this is that as there is a risk of an appeal the Judge might take extra care with the Judgement causing a delay. If there is an appeal which cannot be ruled out this might cause a further delay.

From what is said above it is wrong to refer to a IM contract in the sense of the FSS contract as HARL would probably be contracting for someone to run IM.

Labour MPs have found a way of getting back on the MoD for not giving an oral statement about the Fleet Solid Support Ships Tender. They have tabled a number of questions for written answer. All the questions can be found here https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions?SearchTerm=Fleet+Solid+Support&DateFrom=10%2F05%2F2022&DateTo=28%2F04%2F2023&AnsweredFrom=&AnsweredTo=&House=Commons&Answered=Any&Expanded=True The new questions are at the bottom of page 2 and on page 3.

Kn0wles ref 11.39 post you missed the point I was making. If the MoD wanted to break up the duopoly between BAB and BAe I do not see them approving a buyout. Also there is no guarantee that the other Team Resolute members would necessarily agree. This leads to the question what would happen to the FSS contract as there would be a change of parties.

Another issue is whether the BoD would agree to a takeover bid. If the value of the contracts apart from the FSS is greater than what BAe offers the BoD may say no thanks.

ConGGPOMI ref 11.26 post I am not sure if it is true but there are likely to be regulatory hurdles to overcome. The principal one is whether the CMA would intervene on competition grounds. The views of the MoD will also need to be taken it account. As my shares are in my SIPP they would need to offer about 5 times the current price before I would consider it.

mazik ref 10.47 post if the contract you mention in your post is the FSS contract it has not been signed read yesterday's and today's RNSs again.

lisaisconsuela ref 10.09 I think he is trying to figure out how he can carry on calling the four yards White Elephants after yesterday's news.

RichardMcV Are wec talking about the same thing? I was referring to where the shares are listed for trading. This is separate from where the company is registered. A British company can have a New York listing.

When is Cenkos going to issue a broker's note? With an updated broker's note and valuation we might see some really serious investment coming in.

Does anyone know what happens if demand for shares outstrips supply? The equivalent of over a third of the shares in issue were traded yesterday.

For me the key parts are:

'Planning applications for the Belfast shipyard upgrades will be issued in the next few months with full scale production due to commence in 2025. Prior to 2025, several revenue-generating pre-fabrication, engineering and design workstreams will be undertaken by Team Resolute during the next 18-24 months in preparation for full scale fabrication. The quantum and value of these workstreams attributable to each consortium member will be determined at the point of executing formal contracts.;

The reference to planning permission is interesting as this would indicate that new buildings will be going up. Hopefully the Belfast City Council will fast track the applications.

'We now look forward to very material portion of this £1.6bn contract which - alongside existing projects - provides significant revenue visibility over the short to medium term and substantiates the Group Business Update and outlook that we issued on 16 August 2022 ' This is key for the market especially as the forecast revenues were in nine figures so should give support to the much awaited rerate.

Hopefully a good day.

I was thinking that Astra Asset Management are among other things a Hedge Fund. This made me think would they advise HARL to go for a New York listing. Stocks tend to be valued higher in the US compared to London. Weighed against this is the regulatory compliance costs which may be lower in the UK. Thoughts.

For a perspective from a member of the Defence Select Committee here is a link to twitter thread from Mr Kevan Jones MP. https://twitter.com/KevanJonesMP/status/1592864454395715585

We have this from Naval Technology not one I normally read https://www.naval-technology.com/analysis/uk-commits-to-naval-splurge-before-autumn-statement/. There is some interesting analysis.

Lottie123 I am not sure how much you have been following today's news. Having read the full statement it would seem that construction is not due to start until 2025. On that basis subject to any other large contracts being announced it seems to me the 23 and 24 guidance should remain as is. Do you agree.

Bladey ref 17.41 post the exercise n the Astra Asset Management warrants is 6.2385p

Useless fact anyone who bought their shares last week Wednesday would have doubled their money today at the price at close. I suspect most of those sold earlier in the day.

4unme ref 16.49 post Do you know anything about the circumstances surrounding why the warrants were issued? As I said to Iamsailing earlier today with the profits they are making from the warrants it might be possible to negotiate a lower interest rate. I should add I do not know why the warrants were issued but it is likely that they were additional security.

By the close of trading today the volume of shares traded will equal a third of the total shares in issue.

Jabido/Chrisatrdg I am not sure if either of you know the value of the FSS Contract is £1.67bn. Crucially it says plus inflation. Do either of you know how the inflation would be calculated.