Member Info for stokey12

Looks like I may have to go back on written statement watch again for when we get confirmation of the signing of the contract.

Avyererdowt ref the calculator does have its limitation and the figure was meant as a guide. With this government I amnot sure that it would be targetted. I would observe that thee are between 18 - 24 months of pre construction works will they be included in the contract price. In which case the relevant year for calculating inflation would surely be 2023 when the pre construction work starts. In any case the inflation adjustment will increase the contract value significantly.

Trish63 ref 10.42 post if you are referring to the FSS contract then the answer everything. We know that the order is for three FSS ships to be built for £1.6bn before inflation. We also know that £77m will be invested into the HARL shipyards in Belfast and Appledore. What we do not know is whether payments will be periodic or milestone payments. Also we do not know how the payments under the contract will be shared between the parties. On this last point FormerFD did suggest that HARL would get 70%. My view is that it would probably be nearer 60%.

The price of the contract will be adjusted for inflation we do not know how or when this will be done. I have used the Bank of England calculator what the effect of inflation would be on the contract. Please note this figure may not be accurate as it did not allow me to input a month in 2021. The calculator gave an inflation adjusted figure for the contract of £1,889,299,734.20. The link to the inflation calculator if you wish to check is https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/inflation-calculator

mcadder ref 08.41 when I put in my complaint about him I did not say which company the problem was with so it looks like the moderation team arelooking at all his posts. I will let you know if I hear anything.

Ant1986 ref your 07.36 post the late reported trades cannot all be sales from warrants. The reason for this is that only 877,193 warrants were exercised and shares to that amount issued. This means that only 877,193 warrrant shares have been exercised and the vast bulk of warrants have NOT been exercised so cannot be sold. While the warrants may have been traded the underlying shares cannot be sold as they have not been exercised.

I would suggest you google share warrants.

Si_Derman ref 21.17 post this raises the question are there any cons against HARL retaining IM left. The only con left is the Capex needed to build the facility. Even this would not be insurmountable.

roly12 ref 13.36 post as I do not want to unfilter himjust to report himI have emailed info@lse.co.k to ask for a review of all his posts. I provided examples of some examples to indicate repeated breaches of rule 4 of the posting rules. Afew more complaints might if we are lucky lead to some action beyond just removing posts.

roly12 ref 13.17 post I was aware that you could report aparticular post. I did not realise there was a way of reporting a user. Is it just a question of sending an email.

LSE03 ref 12.04 post You actually triggrered a memory when you mentioned about who HARL can partner with. If I recall the National Security and Investment Act correctly a mandatory referral may be required if a foreign national individual or company sought to purchase an interest above 25% in a UK company carrying out certain types of business. If I recall energy companies or certain energy companies were covered by these provisions. I wonder if they are going to extend the range of energy companies caught by the need for a manddatory referral. If that is the case that would reduce the options for partners, or ensure HARL keeps at least 75% of IMEL.

Jabido thanks for your 11.45 post. Hopefully we will get a decision on IMduring H1 2023 and it is not appealed.

We have had a couple of threads suggesting that HARL should dispose of the IslandMagee project but what are the pros and cons of doing this.

Pros

First It would give HARL a guaranteed minimum forty year income stream. I arrived at forty years by looking at the Marine License terms. The marine license is for a minimum of 25 years. It is also determinable on 25 years notice but the 25 years notice cannot be given in the first 25 years. That gives us an effective 50 years license. From this I took off years for legal wrangling and to build the facility. The 2019 term sheet RNS calculated that the annual storage charge would be £50m. Adjusted for inflation using figures from https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/inflation-calculator you get £58,523,544.09. However that is based on the assumption that the annual charge would remain the same and does not allow for any increase in the storage charge.

Second If the cost of building the facility is funded at the project level i.e. by loans or equity in IMEL then the value of IslandMagee would impact favourably on the value of HARL. If we value IslandMagee on a P/E ratio of 8 due to the guaranteed this would value Island Magee at £400m. I arrived at that figure based on the assumption that the running costs for IslandMagee would be £8.5m. Jabido doyouagree that a P/E ratio of 8 would be the right figure.

Cons

First the construction costs would need to be met. I saw a capex figure of £300m mentioned. The question is how will this be met. It will probably have to be met by a mixture of debt and equity which will probably impact on the second point under pros.

Second HARL does not have the relevant experience as far as I know in operating a facility of this kind. This would dictate bringing in the necessary expertise. This would have to be either by sub contract or direct employment.

I will not be able to listen to it as I have training to attend to but on Wednesday 7 December there is a debate in Westminster Hall on • 09:30- Government support for marine renewables- Mr Alistair Carmichael (Liberal Democrat, Orkney and Shetland) No further details available so not entirely sure how relevant it will be.

dannyboy198 ref 10.27 post anyone who has been invested in this share for more than six months will say never say never. Your question is unfortunately vague in that it does not say anything about the time span you are thinking about. Also it does not say what you mean by substantial. Taking all known definite information into account I would be surprised if there was a placing before Q3 2023. I am not prepared to comment either way beyond that.

LSE03 ref 17.09 post An interesting development the US Military Industrial complex must have choked on their breakfast at the suggestion that Saudi Arabia might build their own military equipment. I do not think BAe and BAb would be too happy either.

LSE03 ref 12.34 post Thanks for this. It wouldseem to be the prospect of some significant sub cotracting work. The article implies that one of the Navantia Shipyards will be given over to windfarm jacket production that leaves a couple option one of which is the sub contracting of the work on vessels that would have gone into that yard to another yard.

Bubble2021 ref 17.35 post Is there any reason to believe that the contract would be re let?

The Right Honourable Member forNorth Durham asked the Honourable and Learned Member for Cheltenham the following question, '

To ask the Secretary of State for Defence, whether (a) Ministers and (b) officials in his Department have met with representatives of Astra Asset Management UK in the last two years.
Answer
Alex Chalk
Conservative
Cheltenham
Commons
Answered on

30 November 2022

No records have been located of any meetings between officials and representatives of Harland & Wolff since 1 January 2020 in connection with the Fleet Solid Support ship competition.

No meetings have been held with representatives of Astra Asset Management UK in the last two years.'

I wonder what caused him to ask about Astra Asset Management.

Pokerchips ref 10.58 post if he is one of those who have joined recently he probably does not know what the current position is with regards to the marine license.

alanos ref 10.46 post But surely you are going to lobby someone it would be someone who could influence the decision. I cannot see how lobbying a UK Minister on a matter within the remit of the Northern Ireland Executive gets anyway. The exception would be the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland.

Si_Derman ref 10.35 post Simple mistake that a person who has failed to do even the basic research would make. How are they supposed to know that the decision was made by the Northern Ireland Minister for DAERA and not the UK Defence Minister.