RE: OK - Back of *** packet. Comments welcome!9 Dec 2022 19:00
Trendz ref 17.43 post my comments are as follows:
In your post you said '6. Debt of £30m in interims but let’s assume £60m after Riverstone facility fully drawn.' This facility is being replaced by the Astra Asset Loan which originally is a £75m facility with the parties wrking towards increasing this to a £100m facility. As Astra are sittiing on a significant paper profit on the 15m warrants which they get as part of the deal for the facility I do not forsee any problems with the facility being raised to £100m.
In relation to the FSS contract it is questionable if the blended gross margin of circa 24% will be achieved as where gross margins for defence have been found they have been under 10%. This might have the effect of lowering the blended rate. Apart from the FSS contract the known contracted revenues are the Cory barges contract of £15m and the M55 contract which is another £25m. There is also the Athelstone conversion no details have been given as to what the Athelstone will be converted to and what the contracted revenue on this project is.
Revenues for FY23 and FY24 are subject to a certain degree of uncertainty as in these years uder current plans pre construction works will be going on in relation to the FSS ontract with construction works due to start in FY25.
The real issue with regards to predicting revenues in FY23 or FY24 is that we do not know what, if any, fabrication contracts HARL will get in the renewables area, On this basis I would agree that your figures might prove on the conseervative side.