Member Info for stokey12

HeresHopin ref 13.29 post that was £100m-£115m. Also just a typo that should be significant revenues from 2026/27.

Ant1986 ref 13.27 post what the Admiral said was that the contract would be signed by the end of the year. While some assumed that this would be followed be a formal announcement as BBN pointed out this may not be case. It certainly was not the case with I believe he said the Type 26. We will know tomorrow if thee is going to be a formal announcement.

As the year comes to a close what are everyone's predictions for next year and beyond. If possible soething more than the share price will reach £1. I will start. HARL has three potentialmain income streams developing and as I see it 2023 will be a development year for all three. The three are:

FSS - 2023 will be the start of the pre construction enablement work. How much HARL will make from the pre construction enablement work is to be determined. We should also see as far as it is not part of the pre construction enablement work the start of the upgrade work. I am monitoring the Northern Ireland Planning Portal for the planning applications mentined in the RNS. This will give an indication of the extent of the works at Belfast.

IslandMagee - We have the JR scheduled for May. Assuming that there is no appeal which for an environmental JR would be rare construction work should start. I understand that the construction of the caverns will take 2 - 3 years.

Renewbles - We should see work on the windfarm both offshore and floating wind being given to HARL, Of particular note would be demonstrator units in realtion to floating windfarms.

I am not making any predictions on share price as there are too many unknowns. Current guidance in relation to revenues is £100 - £1115m. This guidance was given before preferred bidder status on FSS was awarded. Assuming that this guidance did not include anything in relation to FSS I wouldexpect this guidance to be met if not exceeded.

Looking ahead I would expect the three income streams to deliver significant revenues from 2016/7 and going forward.

LSE03 ref 08.41 post thanks for this. If the MoD moves to a competition by default model then HARL.Team Resolute may have a shout on some of the vessels mentioned in the article like the MRSS. Looking ahead Cammell Laird holds the current contract to maintain the RFA. When that comes up for renewal in around seven years time I would expect a two way fight between Cammell Laird and HARL.

Carltt ref 23.34 post Thanks for the history lesson. Unfortunately you over looked something. One of the last ships built by HARL for the MoD was the RFA Fort Victoria. As you will see from this Wiki article https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RFA_Fort_Victoria_(A387) it was built in 1990 and commissioned in 1994. It is due to go out of service in 2028 34 years after being commissioned. As it happens the RFA Fort Victoria is one of the ships being replaced under the FSS contract so HARL will be building her replacement. So since the Titanic HARL has been building vessels that can do more than one voyage and last for decades.

SidTheMan ref 18.02 post I would point out that three years ago HARL (Belfast) was bought out of bankruptcy so to go from nil in revenues to an estimated £70m in revenues, (see my 18.01 post), is not easy especially when you consider the state of the yard when it was taken over.

Si_Derman ref 17.32 post current guidance is revenues between £65m - £75m. From the figure you need to make an adjustment for the majority of the Cory Contracts as if I recall correctly £15m of the Cory Contract has been booked against 2023 revenues. Likewise only £25m of the HMS Quorn contract has been booked against 2022 revenues. The interim results had £15m booked in so known revenues so far would seem to be around £58m. This does not include contracts where we do not have amounts like almost all the Arnish contracts and ship repair contracts. It would seem that HARL will have revenues at the top end of the guidance.

NigelHaemoglobin ref 13.01 post I do not see a T/O as a realistic possibility in the immediate future. There are potential regulatory issues which would make it not worth the bother in my opinion.

Bubble2021 ref 12.55 post Actually I was not going to say that. I appreciate purely factual comments which are not positive are considered deramping even if they were not meant as such. I was going to say the lack ofvisibility on what contracts other than FSS HARL has makes it hard to know its total funding requirements are. We know that the total funding that has been secured is £147m rising to £177m. What we do not know is the total cost of the upgrades and what the capex on other contracts is. Also we need to deduct the costs of repaying off the loans to RCP. It is because of these unknowns that while there appears to be no need for a placing one cannot be ruled out.

roly12 ref 12.03 post thanks sounnds like I had a quieter Christmas than you. I do not think we are in disagreement over the question of a placing. The issue is why was Liberenium bought on if not for a placing? One thought I had was that HARL may be going for a dual listing. What do you think?

Gheko ref 11.17 post this subject was broached last week when the RNS about the new broker ws issued. The accepted wisdom is that when a new joint broker is added this means that a placing will follow soon. In this case while based on past experience I would not rule it out I am not sure that it will happen. The main reason I say that is if you look at the title of the RNS it said appointment of a new adviser. Libernium would not have taken on HARL if they did not see a way of making fees.

A placing at a discount to the current share price would not be viewed favourably and I am therefore leaning towards the view that any placing if there was one would have to be at a premium to the current share price.

aimgambler123 ref 10.38 post As his aim the share price is being mainly driven by sentiment and news so in the absence of news it will drift down. It is also worth noting that most people are likely to still be on their Christmas break. Also as many people on this board seem to be more concerned about the share price than the company's prospects judging by the posts it might be the case that people are being scared off investing.

Just seen this article from the Irish News. https://www.irishnews.com/business/2022/12/28/news/business_review_of_the_year_june-2955637/. You need to scroll down to the end of the article for the story about Cory Barges. Since that contract a further contract was awarded by Cory Barges bringing the total value of contracts to circa £15m. From what the article says there may be more work to come from there.

As we have not had a business or trading update since the 16 August update does anyone expect a trading update before the end of the year on Friday?

I have just seen this article which provides a warning about the possible consequences of using emails in a legal context. https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=66efcd72-b9c8-436d-af7b-24f7f8fae668&utm_source=Lexology+Daily+Newsfeed&utm_medium=HTML+email+-+Body+-+General+section&utm_campaign=Lexology+subscriber+daily+feed&utm_content=Lexology+Daily+Newsfeed+2022-12-27&utm_term=

Kaeren ref 12.42 post Please do not on my account I prefer a proper discussion about HARL and there are a number of things that can be discussed. The problem is that there are some on here who only tolerate positive posts.

Pokerchips ref 09.37 post I agree with everything you say. I was in fact referring to the bonus being front loaded and the criticism the Board received for this. I note that most of the criticism seemed to be coming from those shareholders who did not agree with the purchase of the shipyards and felt all energy should be on getting IslandMagee up and running. This time the bonus and the criteria for earning it is clear.

Pokerchips ref 08.42 post I wonder if the terms are so demanding to compensate for the previous over generous bonus.

James2k66 ref In my case any difference in treatment is caused by the fact that derampers are expressing an opinion which they are entitled to. I would normally therefore just filter them. With rampers they on ocassion post information or comments which are misleading or insulting like yesterday's comment calling people morons for selling. It is worth noting that there can be a number of valid reasons for selling bearing in mind the time it wolld take to reach £1.

aimgambler123 ref 21.43 post Si_Derman has never come across to me as sanctimonious to me just as someone like me who has a weird sense of humour. I agree with Avyererdowt's 21.43 post just because he mildly criticised people for ramping does not make him sanctimonious.