Member Info for stokey12

Xenor ref 21.58 post Assuming I am the he in your post I got my information from the answer to a Parliamentary Question. The Question and Answer are as follows.

'John Healey
Labour
Wentworth and Dearne
Commons

To ask the Secretary of State for Defence, when he expects the final contract for the Fleet Solid Support Ships programme to be signed.
Answer

Alex Chalk
Conservative
Cheltenham
Commons

Answered on
22 November 2022
It is planned that the manufacture contract for the Fleet Solid Support Ships will be signed within two years of competition launch in May 2021.'

The problem is that officials and ministers appear to have given different answers.

lsetown ref 13.54 post The answer to the question you pose is dependent on how you want to value HARL. If you go by the value of the land then yes. If you go by the Net Asset Value probably not. If you go by the value of the contracts then again you get a yes. I am inclined to the view that HARL is undervalued going by short to medium term earnings potential.

roly12 ref 13.48 post If HARL can get 100% government funding or a loan from the National Infrastructure Bank my view which is a minority view is that HARL should retain 100% ownership of IM. If not as near to 100% as possible. My reasoning is that this will give them a 40 year recurring revenue with little overhead so it could fund the operating costs of HARL.

wyndrum ref 13.38 post no problem.

wyndrum ref 11.58 post What argument there is none from me I agree with you.

alamo55 ref 11.22 post I would add meaningless ramping as well as deramping. I tend to the view that both are ineffective. They only serve to put people off a share. If someone goes on a board and sees nothing about a company just endless posts about the share price I do not see how that encourages people to invest as it tells them nothing about the company.

LSE03 ref 10.36 post Thanks so a pointless post from alamo55

alamo55 ref 10.00 post I amunable to follow this post as the context in which the comments were made is missing. Can you say when and at what event these comments were made.

Bubble2021 ref 07.12 post Arguably it could be said that the spreading of naval shipbuilding around other shipyards would increase shipbuilding skills to allow for more shipbuilding in the UK. If BAe needs more shipyards then they could probably be able to get the Pallion in Sunderland I know there have been suggestions that HARL buys it. This is normally met by questions about why should it as no case seems to be made for doing it.

I can think of three reasons to question the validity of this rumour BAe are planning to make a takeover bid for HARL and they are:

Firstly a takeover of HARL would leave BAe with a number of non core assets which they will either have to manage or dispose of. It is not immediately clear to me that there is anyone who would be willing to purchase these assets with the possible exception of IslandMagee. In any event it seems to me a very ineffcientway to obtain the two assets they would want, Belfast and Appledore. It would make more sense to buy just these two assets in a trade sale if HARL was willing to dispose of them which I doubt as they are needed for the FSS contract as well as others.

Secondly as HARL is now opening up Naval Shipbuilding to increased competition any attempt to purchase HARL by BAe is likely to be met with a referral to the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA). If the CMA was to determine that the bid was anti competitive then they can either block the bid altogether or require that either Belfast or Appledore be sold to a third party.

Third, as a takeover of HARL would amount to a material change the MoD might decide to pull the FSS contract which would bring the merits of the takeover into question.

Si_Derman ref 19.23 post I agree that is how i read it having had a look again at it. The rumour was started as far as I can see it with limited knnowledge of competition law or the political reality of the situation.

pacman27 ref 18.21 that was the rumour back in November after the preferred bidder announcement I do notbelieve there is anything in it.

Trendz ref 14.03 post I am not sure if it is possible at this stage to do a proper valuation of HARL. As things stand I am in the 50p or under share price camp. I do not think that the share price will react in the way somepeople are expecting. This is based on what has happened before. What I am expecting is that the share price will gradually go up as things progress and not just in relation to FSS. I may be wrong and there is a spike but based on past performance I do not think I am.

Trendzref 13.13 post I was just wondering why you are not assuming that the market is assuming that not all the deferred 2022 income will be recovered in 2023. I mean after all not all of the deferred contracts affected by the Coronavirus pandemic has come back as I recall from statements made at the time. You should be careful about making assumptions on limited facts.

Trendz ref 12.21 post I would be interested to know your reasoning for saying that the market has priced in that the FSS contract or the financing will not complete. I do not see either happening?

Just seen this https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2023/01/04/trading-update-harland-wolff-hit-by-deferrals/ a balanced commentary

Si_Derman ref 09.11 post Being converted into a private vessel would seem about right as at the time it was said that it was going to be used for non military use. Also it would not make sense to acquire the vessel from the MoD only to sell it back to the MoD.

Chrisatrdg ref 08.58 post across check with the Belfast Harbour website shows that it is now scheduled to depart on the 22 January which is 11 days longer than originally planned. I note that this change in the scheduled date of departure was made before its arrival in port.

Chrisatrdg ref 08.43 post In relation to the assets HMS Atherstone was acquired around 1 June 2022 which was the date of the RNS. This is an asset that was being held for sale. Assuming that it has now been sold on and is now being converted how would this affect the asset position?

bonzob ref 08.30 post I would think that it is unlikely to be today as the focus will be on Keir Starmer's speech and I do not see the signing of the FSS contract being sufficiently newsworthy to move the main headlines off Keir Starmer's speech. As the MoD has until May to complete the contract I would suggest stop worrying about when the contract will be signed.