Member Info for stokey12

Si_Derman ref 11.16 post Please stop singing and I thought I was bad.

AimMaster2018 ref 11.08 post you mean like the way you went from negative to positive on the morning of the announcement of preferred bidder status? I would observe that a number of people on this board seem to look for a simple explanation as opposed to a more nuanced view. As I said in one of my earlier post I do not accept that the only reason that the share price has gone down is because of Kave and Killik selling. I am sure if the share price keeps dropping you will go negative again.

The press coverage on the visit of RFA Tidesurge first off this from the Royal Navy https://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/news-and-latest-activity/news/2023/february/10/20230210-tanker-tidesurge-pays-rare-visit-by-royal-fleet-auxiliary-to-northern-ireland. We have confirmation that she will be leaving this weekend.

Then you have this from Yahoo News https://uk.news.yahoo.com/royal-fleet-auxiliary-ship-visits-145510805.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAKf6xga76ML5DP02G8aQoMBzxQ2bI_PBtxVuJ8lwBOJOUpBH-cDj34tryvRJxz-a6-Tp_A7TUP3U8SZqszM4F_sSv3MG-H2I59Hw4r3mo06T4PCG9Ml-cpiAWgijPD0Gx1rdwQ7fwHihblyN2j8bQqgRgHYsxw-LxYlUiF6xmz96.

Finally there is this from the Belfast Newsletter https://www.newsletter.co.uk/business/royal-fleet-auxiliary-ship-visits-belfast-ahead-of-support-vessels-contract-work-at-harland-and-wolff-shipyard-4022961 I think this may have been posted before.

Xenor ref 09.48 post when I said that it will keep drifting down I was not only looking at the reaction to the FSS announcement. Since I first invested in HARL in 2020 it has been noted that despite how good the news is after a day or two the share starts going down. I note what JW said in the pastin relation to cruise and ferries about multi year contracts and about the value of the contracts none of which have come true so I will wait to see news about actual contracts. As you may have noticed I prefer to go on facts and the only firm data points are the FY22 accounts which will not come until May/June. Also there are the 2023 interims in September which will hopefully confirm that the work carried over has indeed been rebooked for 2023.

Si_Derman Ref 09.11 post What are talking about me going for the populist vote you must have me mistaken for somebody else. The May date you saw would be the FY22 results which we already know will not be great. I am expecting the interims end of September as HARL seems to like taking things to the wire.

AimMaster2018 ref 09.06 My opinion is based on the medium to long term view not the short term. This is definitely a medium/long term share. If the forecast to start paying dividends from 2024 proves correct then I would expect an appreciable increase in the SP.

AimMaster2018 ref 08.59 post I was giving my view and I am not confused. My opinion is based on what has happened before and is consistent with the market response to the FSS announcement.

HarChris ref 08.51 post I have not ruled out anything it is just that on past performance after any contract news the share price will go up for a day or so before drifting down on no news. I am therefore relying on the interims to show that there are other long term income streams which will secure a continuous revenue stream. I will keep this view under review in case we get a multi year contract.

While Killik and Kave have been selling off the bulk of the shares they had I do not believe that this is the whole story as to why there has been a drop in the share price. The PR from HARL shows that there will be no significant income until 2025 when both IM and FSS start producing revenues. This is not the kind of investment story to convince people to invest today when they can wait until 2025. I fear that regardless of what any shareholder both II and PI does this will drift down until the interim results in September.

smithfields ref 18.10 post it was the aircraft carrier alliance made up of BAe, BAB and Thales (UK). I believe Appledore got a subcontract to do the bow blocks. Everyone is now blaming each other.

Si_Derman ref 17.37 post not before 2028 as Cammell Laird have a ten year maintenance contract for all the Tide Class RFA ships.

LSE03 Thanks for these posts somebody in the MoD has actually done something sensible. Getting people who will man these ships to advise on the design is in my view essential.

Kaeren ref my 11.38 post got myself confused as the mesuremnets are in metres and the difference means that there is only about 10 metres difference in the width.

Kaeren ref 11.25 post I think the issue is with the width. Converting from metres to feet shows that there is only about 7 feet of room spare.

Ragnar_Lothbrok ref 11.12 post First point this share is not one for a quick profit. On the question of whether there would be a equity raise the consensus is that an equity raise is unlikely in the near future. HARL at present appears to be using debt facilities rather than equity. In addition the non FSS revenue flows would seem to be sufficient to cover expenses for this year.

I think that at some stage Stena Line are oing to have to dock the Stena Embla for a complete overhaul as the patch jobs were she is in drydock for a day must be getting expensive.

Garone ref 09.55 post Going by the ages of Samson and Goliath I suspect they may be coming to the end of their lives and will need tobe replaced within the next 5 - 10 years. On your general point I agree with you Appledore is a freehold so on its own must be worth more than the MCap.

ForrestGump ref 06.57 post As to were the share price go today we will have an indication in about an hour. As to your theory that Killik and Kave are working in concert to destroy HARL I do not believe they are. If you remmeber yesterday Kaeren posted the article about the problem with underperformance at BG causing them to pull out of growth stocks. I think the fact that growth stocks are out of fashion is the reason for the sell off.

Xenor ref 20.23 post I have only one quibble with this. You did not mention that HARL started FY23 with contractual revenues for FY23 of £40m. This was made up from £25m from M55 and £15m from Cory Barges so to meet the stated revenue forecasts HARL will need to generate between £60m and £75m in revenues this year. We have as you said £30m in carried over revenues from FY22. When calculating revenues I have done this on the basis that the £25m from the FSS contract was not included in the revenue forecast. This meand that HARL should easily make the original FY23 revenue guidance. We do need an update on the revenue guidance.

Kaeren ref 18.11 post Thanks for that. It might explain both Kave and Killik's selling down in that they are both reducing their exposure to growth stocks. As HARL's share price did not recover post the preferred bidder announcement they reduced their holding. It would be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.