Member Info for stevemocal

Steve - I was thinking more about the large buys at the end of last week. Seems to me that someone has been slowly buying up in fairly large volume but not large enough to push the SP up or make PI hands sticky. Started about a month ago with a single £300k buy and at that time someone posted a link to a video where Willem Middelkoop talked about his investment strategy for his Commodity Discovery Fund. Seemed like he might have been talking about XTR and I seem to remember someone emailed him to say 'welcome' to XTR and got a positive response back (I'll try and find the post later). A link to the video below... skip to about 1:26:00 in and see what you think.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7wUIq1Twe4

Clearly a major investor trying to take a position and people just hand over their shares cheaply. Nowt as queer as folk!

Andrew - I think it is 7 weeks ago on Monday that the core samples went off for the assays (Feb was a short month). It is also worth noting that H2 won't have as many core samples to process and we may see a slightly quicker turn around time? Either way, I am hopeful for a run of good news over the next couple of weeks, including a TR-1 at some point, assays results for H1 and 2 and completion of H6.

For me, if the assay results for H1 and H2 confirm we have the grade (and size), then the risk that the discovery won't be economical to mine will plummet and it starts to become a question of how we earn from it and not IF we earn from it... I am very keen to get into that position asap!!

My only minor gripe (excuse the pun) is the lack of clarity in terms of the drill plan. We were given the outline plan (in terms of the number of phases and drills per phase) at the start but the plans have understandably changed and an update would be appreciated so we can track progress.

Exciting times.
GLA

Thanks for the reply Iceberg... educational as always. I'll hang in there for the assay results and that 15p!

Thanks Iceberg... I'd missed that bit about the 3 readings per one metre interval in the RNS. Maybe that does result in indicative results but it seems like too small a sample to me and it has dented my confidence a little. I think they have done the right thing dropping XRF results from the RNS's... we need to see the assays results for hole 1 asap.

Iceberg - If they only test 5% of a core sample with XRF then why would they risk reporting grades for hole 1? Seems like a good way to set false expectations and risk slightly lower (but still good enough) grades (determined by assays) being regarded negatively once reported.

I don't know whether this is routine practice but I found the following video (whilst research the use of XFR readers) which looks to me that they can be used to test a lot more than 5% of a core sample. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hq0GNmTezeM

I am genuinely struggling to understand why CB would talk about 'better than 0.4%' being a win if he didn't have some evidence that that's what we have here. If he wasn't using XRF results as the basis for his assertion then what is it based on? Do you think he has had a heads up re the assays?

The way I read the XRF numbers is we have an average of 0.3% Cu throughout the mineralisation (from 110m in) and it 'highlights' a few sweet spots along the way. Only a relatively small amount of Au is needed to take the Cu Eq above 0.4%.

My crude calculations already take us beyond the 2mt of Cu required to trigger an AA buyback negotiation and I think the total will end up significantly more based on the clues provided by drill hole 5. The current SP seems like outstanding value to me and I think it will more than double within the next few weeks and then go from strength to strength as more assay results and drill news comes in. Last chance to buy in at value.

All IMHO. DYOR. GLA

SiriusB - you make them out to be a very blunt tool which is not the impression I got when reading up about then. I guess we’ll find out soon enough.

I can’t find my calc for hole 1 (thought it was near 0.4) but will redo it in the morning when I’m less tired and the gin has left the system!

I tried to find some data re accuracy of the handheld machines but didn’t have much luck. Guess we’ll be able to compare for ourselves when the assays come back.

The XRF readings indicated an average of around 0.4% Cu. I guess CB is factoring in that there will also be Au in there (which the XRF reader won't pick up) and that will comfortably take us to at least 0.4% Cu Eq for hole 1.

I agree though that less than 0.4% (after setting that as an expectation) would be seen as bad news and won't help the SP. We'll know soon enough.

JDAU - I catch your drift but interchanging language causes confusion... it should be a lot easier to identify and follow the plan.

In my mind this should be a straightforward programme of drills with the objective of re-estimating the JORC. Splitting the programme into 2 phases makes sense, with the first phase being a limited number of drills to test volume and grades before committing to the expense of completing the entire programme i.e. phase 2.

Of course, the phase 2 plan (number of holes, locations, direction etc) was always going to be subject to change based on the findings from phase 1, and even as phase 2 itself progresses. I've no problem with plans flexing but I'd like to be kept better informed of the changes so I can follow it.

I am also a little confused that we have an RNS back in October saying they have applied for governmental approvals to proceed with a Phase 1 drilling programme (3 drill holes) and this was followed up by a further RNS in December to confirm approval had been given. We then had an RNS on 4th February referring to phase 1 as up to 6 drill holes? So, which is it and what's been approved? And how many drills are planned for phase 2 and do they need to seek approvals for that before it can commence? It has all become a bit confusing and, I for one, would appreciate a plan update so I can keep track.

You think investors will bail out because we've found 800m of additional mineralisation? I don't understand the logic.

If it goes back down anywhere near 5p I'll be re-morgaging and buying everything I can.

Well it would appear that not only has the plan changed but also the language. The RNS quoted by JDAU talks about a follow-up 'programme'... what happened to the phases?!? Very confusing.

0.4% is also (roughly) the average grade recorded by the handheld XFR reader for hole 1.

Ella - According to the RNS on 2nd December, the 1st phase consisted of three holes and that 'A successful Phase One drilling programme will potentially be followed up with the drilling of a further six diamond drill holes.'

So I presume we have concluded phase 1, immediately launched phase 2 (because phase 1 was clearly successful) and are one hole down (if we discount the abandoned hole 4) into a series of six drills that make up Phase 2. At the end of Phase 2 they will then re-estimated the JORC.

That's my take anyway.

Joeman1 - Yes, that would make sense.

They seem pretty confident that this is going to turn into a double porphyry find... night take a few more holes to prove but it looks incredibly promising. I will be holding my shares tightly to my chest and will enjoy the ride over the next month or two.

Sounded like... getting a handle on single 'sect', double porphyry.

Not sure about the 'sect' bit/word.

Brian - Turns out you not being anywhere near optimistic enough!

Ella - the last RNS (at the start of the drill) said they'd hit mineralisation after 45m.

I've been thinking along similar lines but keep asking myself if it is too good to be true?

If it is a dual porphyry, which seems possible having hit mineralisation so soon, then it means we'll need diabolical grades not to have the Cu Eq tonnage required for the majors to come knocking... and that seems unlikely. Plus, we now have mineralisation beginning much closer to the surface.

Let's also no forget we have a fund that appears to be taking a position and may at some point have to declare their stake... this will also boost investor confidence and generate some FOMO.

So much potential for good news just around the corner... the anticipation is wearing out my F5 key.