Member Info for stevemocal

cyberiachas - In the RNS dated 2nd December 2020 it states... "Upon completion of drilling the Phase 1 and Phase 2 drill holes, it is anticipated that the Racecourse mineral resource will be re-estimated under JORC (2012)."

The JORC will be the trigger for the AA negotiations (assuming it estimates > 2mt Cu Eq) but they have left some wiggle room with the use of the word 'anticipated'. If the Geophysics and phase 2 drill indicates more untested resource, then I think we'd see a phase 3 before any re-estimating of the JORC. After all, the objective is surely to maximise profit and not get a quick sale? Just MHO.

The buy back negotiations would be triggered by proving up 2mt Cu Eq (i.e. a new JORC following the phase 2 drilling) OR a decision to mine. So if it is less than 2mt and XTR decide to mine, then they still have to go to AA and give them the option to buy back. It is a one time only clause and once trigger, and a decision taken, then that's it.

Building on the points made by Shorn, some ballpark figures below to show the potential scale of the discovery and the massive amount of wiggle room we have (in terms of hitting the magic 2mt of Cu) even if the average grade ends up lower, it isn't quite as big, or cut-offs are eventually applied.

1,000 x 1,000 x 1,000 = 1 billion square meters

1 billion x 2.7 (tonnes per square meter) = 2.7 billion tonnes of mineralised rock.

2.7 billion tonnes x 0.33% (average contained Cu Eq as per hole 1) = 8.9mt Cu Eq

And that is just Racecourse.

Even if we end up with just a quarter of the above, the SP will be knocking on the door of 40p. If it is anything like the above numbers... ?!?

If the assay results from hole 2 show consistent economic Cu Eq grades, then it is hard to imagine a scenario where this goes wrong and doesn't end up with at least 2mt Cu Eq and a very profitable sale. Bring on the assay results.

Just MHO. DYOR. GLA

jwoz - If hole 6 ends up anywhere near those numbers then the target 2mt of Cu will look like a very low bar. Remember as well that mineralisation was hit at just 45m.

I can't believe the market hasn't woken up yet to what is going on here. It needs a TR1 to make people sit up, take notice and properly look at the numbers. IMO, we can't be far away from this rocketing.

GLA

I think CE made the point that the RNS means something to the researched XTR investors but news of a junior mining company planning an IP survey isn't going to ignite the market because the market doesn't have the context to understand the significance.

Good assay results for hole 2, a whopping hole 6 and a TR1 is the sort of news that will bring in new blood and get the SP seriously moving.

I note that there was no mention of assay results for hole 2... no 'imminent' or even a 'shortly'. Could it be that there is no need to give an update because they'll be a second RNS later today on that?!?

Doog - I hadn't picked up on that re testing beyond 1,000m... good point. You could be right about the depth because the early reports each gave a depth more than I was expecting an indicating that they are cutting through the stuff very quickly.

Doog - Hole 6 could even be knocking on 900m now and important to remember we hit mineralisation from just 45m! That's a big chunk of juice rock.

I'm not sure this RNS will set the market alight this morning but it should at least give the SP a nudge in the right direction pending bigger news. It obviously also helps to steady twitchy investor nerves.

Good news that they are going to carefully plan phase 2. Every drill needs to (literally) count in terms of understanding the scale of the find in order to maximise the return when/if a buy back is negotiated.

Good news that the drill for hole 6 is still spinning, which must be getting on for 900m now. Another update when completed will mean another good news RNS to build momentum.

Looking forward to the assay results later today or tomorrow. I don't really want to have to endure another (long) weekend in suspense!

A TR1 RNS would be the icing on the Easter egg.

And let's not forget the mineralisation started at 45m!

CB - I'd really appreciate a 2pm RNS with assay results for hole 2 and progress report on hole 6. I'd really like to be sitting in the garden soaking up the sun and celebrating with a few beers at 4.30 this afternoon... we've not had many sunny days of late. Thanks in advance.

This morning there has been the following 'trades' at 5.5p:

13 shares
150 shares
13 shares
460 shares
50 shares
77 shares

Does anyone believe these are real trades?

Time for me to go for a long walk.

Last trade last night was 100k shares at 5.9p. This morning they open up with a 5.3-5.8 spread and an SP of 5.55... yep, no manipulation going on here.

HOLD!!

This has occurred multiple time over recent weeks and then after hours large buys appear. Cannot believe people handing over their shares when the company is on the brink of proving up a large discovery. Anyone who has done their research knows this is massively undervalued and a rock solid HOLD... I have zero sympathy for those who will now miss out.

In the RNS of 19th March, it states that hole 6 was "at 75m depth, with initial pyrite/chalcopyrite mineralisation of porphyry style seen at 45m". Then, in the RNS dated 23rd March, it states that hole 6 "had advanced to 297m depth having encountered veining with pyrite, pyrrhotite and traces of chalcopyrite over the last 10m, typical of the outer margin of the Racecourse porphyry system." Now I may be reading too much into it but this is my take...

Mineralisation starts from 45m and at 288m it becomes TYPICAL of the outer margin of the Racecourse porphyry system i.e. the mineralisation from 45-288m is of a "porphyry style' but not TYPICAL of the Racecourse porphyry system. In other words, I think the implication is that the mineralisation initially encountered is the outer margin of another porphyry.

Other evidence to support this includes statements about this potentially being a multi porphyry system like Cadia and that hole 5 encounter mineralisation much sooner than expected.

I'm no expert though and I'm more than happy for people to challenge my reasoning!

Another suspicious UT to drag the SP down a bit... where does a 5.7p come from when people can sell at 5.9p?

As DC26 says, a TR1 will kick the SP north again and I believe we do have an investor building a significant position (won't repeat why) and they must be getting close to the 3% threshold where a TR1 is required. Presuming thy want to take a bigger position than 3%, I'd expect them to place a number of very large orders (which won't show until filled) as they approach 23 million shares to leap them beyond 3% before having to show their hand to the market and the SP going up. Just a theory. We'll see.

Good hole 2 assay results, news of a lonnnnnnnnnnng, mineralised hole 6 (possibly also confirming that second porphyry?) and a TR1 are all possible this week. What a happy Easter that would make!

GLA

Did this just open with an ask of 5.60 and bid of 5.70? Despite the value of the last buys AND sells?

MM's selling to each other to try and give the impression people are selling and spook people into parting with their shares? Don't do it people. Thieves.

Jrlomax - There are so many variables it is very difficult to calculate. However, you could take a look at the following article written by the well respected John Cornford, which is often referred to on here. Bear in mind that his calculation is based on an 80% buyback and CB has already said he'd be looking for 100% (and probably so too would AA) and the price of copper is now higher.

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/johns-mining-journal-where-next-for-xtract-resources/

Doog... exactly! I don't think the SP will take a hit on Monday because of this RNS... it's all about Bushranger.

I've probably spent 100+ hours researching this opportunity, the copper exploration/mining section in general and the geology that underpins it. I even have a 5 x 3ft whiteboard dedicated to XTR/Bushranger which is covered in calculations, estimates and drawings based on the data/info currently available. I've done my due diligence and whilst it is still impossible to say just how big/valuable the find is, I am very confident that it is plenty big enough! Whether this investment is likely to be a 3 bagger or 30 bagger from here, the decision is the same... HOLD! Just a little more patience required before this flies.

DYOR GLA

Two 500k buys also appeared after hours at 6.08 and 6.16... and whoever it is, isn't buying in for a slice of Manica. BR is the only show in town.