Member Info for stevemocal

I believe it was said that the lab doing the assaying has stopped taking new business in order to catch-up (presumably as per the contract) with the XTR work. In which case, I'm hoping to see the effect of that very soon, with assay results coming in thick and fast. Note, we are currently waiting on assays for 8 drill holes that completed more than 6 weeks ago (the original target for turning around assay results).

I'm actually surprised the SP has been holding up so well. given the MM's are normally quick to drag it down on low volume. Maybe some big buy orders behind the scenes?

Jeez... this thing has got to pop soon.

Stretch targets are always used to counter Parkinson's Law and, as such, the delivery of milestone will sometimes slip. Besides, it isn't XTR coming up with the milestone dates or managing delivery... they can only report to shareholders what is reported to them.

Feels like the project has real momentum though and will soon be over the line.

It does look like some of the ProsectOre shares are being sold, which we knew was a possibility but is still a bit surprising... you'd think they have a good understanding of the opportunity here.

Personally I wouldn't even be top slicing any but people have different appetites when it comes to risk and who know what personal circumstances might make it necessary for someone to sell. I can't see all 50m hitting the market, so must be about done now.

You're not going mad... I noticed it too. I was going to post something but got distracted and then forgot! It should say ENE.

There has been good demand from buyers recently but there has also been someone providing the MM's with millions of shares and causing a drag. When they have finished donating a future fortune to others, we'll start moving north again.

It would be a terrible shame to see either News or Iceberg leave these boards. It is good to have diversity of opinion, to challenge one another and avoid the delusional echo chamber that so many boards become. Sometimes things get a bit heated and a bit too personal but, gentlemen, please just let it go and let's return to business as usual.

Aeris - It was reported but not much detail. Basically, a high chargeability anomaly approximately 1km long and 500m deep. Another beast to explore.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/XTR/bushranger-project-footrot-prospect-update/15055805

At one point he was more specific and referred to 2.2 instead of 2mt. 500mt of ore at 0.44% would give you 2.2mt of cu eq within the conceptual open pit.... just saying.

And now we know that the first SE anomaly isn't going to be a jaffa and that what sit's with the conceptual open pit could be just the tip of the iceberg. Who'd have thunk it... looks like we get two icebergs for the price of one.

If you ignore the UT from last night, the SP is moving north. No major movement north though until more news. Assays results due and hole 25 must be about done... not long to wait.

Re the Valmin Code - I would make a few points that need to be considered:

1. The code is only binding to a professional providing an independent valuation. Nothing stops two companies from borrowing from the code, cherry picking what they think will best provide a fair valuation, as part of a negotiation process.

2. The code states that at least two valuation methods 'should' be used but goes on to say "If it is impractical to use two Valuation Approaches, the Practitioner must clearly and unambiguously outline the reasons for not doing so."

3. A range of values must be determined (high, most likely, low) to "reflect any uncertainties in the data and the interaction of the various assumptions made; however, the range should not be so wide as to render the conclusion of the Public Report meaningless."

Based on those points, I would suggest that the 5p valuation by iceberg using the cost based method has produced an outlier result i.e. clearly seems too low given the inground value, open pit, jurisdiction etc. On that basis, I think that valuation method should be ignored (at least for now) as per the above.

That leaves us with iceberg's 18p valuation using the market based method. If we were to apply a range to that to reflect any uncertainties in the data (worth noting that CB and the team have access to a lot more data than us), then we are not a million mikes away from the 25+p that others are talking about, including CB.

News - For clarification, I did not attend the CB/Zac event and therefore did not hear from the horses mouth CB estimating a 25-30p value. I have repeated though what others have reported who did attend. In the thread called 'Calm before the storm' on 20th October, both Andrew444 and CaveatEmptor state that CB talked of 25-30p.

Continued....

"If I started believing that, I'd believe anything. I've never heard anything like that!" and "If they walked in with 10p we'd tell them where to put it" and "we need some realism here." "This is a Tier 1 ore body and still growing." "This really is not a 10p ore body."

News - CB interview notes 08/11/21

Resource model coming "not too far from now" to tell us how many tonnes of ore (mentions 500m). Can't tell us hoy tonnes of copper though until assays all back. Ore body getting thicker in all directions. Pit less conceptual by the day.

Much debate on boards re valuation over weekend. Said Rosemount and GGP - valuations bode well for XTR... "we'll be able to produce when important date comes."

Share holder risk needs to be factored into price.

DCF model can be used - not regulatory model, XTR hypothesis reported to AA (this is what we estimate the Capital to be, this is estimated operating costs, NPV etc). "one thing I am sure on is that 2mt of copper will come from this conceptual open pit."

The quantity of information we are having to assimilate is huge. We are flat out. In summary "It could not be better".

Debate re 5p valuation on the boards.

Most upbeat interview re Bushranger to date... by far.

It is also worth noting that CB's valuation is based on what he believes is within the conceptual open pit because that is currently the only area where there are drill results and assays on which to base a valuation.

However, we are now going to sink at least 8 drill holes (one already going) into one of two large anomalies to the SE (and there is Footrot to), which fall outside of the conceptual open pit at Racecourse. The value of any resource within these anomalies will have to be factored into any fair market valuation, even if they are heavily discounted to reflect uncertainty due to limited drilling. It can't just be thrown in as a sweetener to the buyer... that would be criminal.

News from hole 25 is not far away now. Hopefully it will confirm a long stretch of high(er) grade copper/gold mineralisation, settles nerves and there will be less talk of selling out cheaply.

Hole 25 has been going for over a week and must be 500+m. I don't think they'd still be drilling if all they were pulling up in those cores was iron pyrite. It is going straight through the huge, low resistivity anomaly that sits to the SE of Racecourse and, if it comes up trumps, must be a game changer.

So only 21% of the resource is measured, so lets go with a 33% discount instead of the full 50%. We're down to £400m.

Adjust for difference in resource size (let's use 3.3mt and 2.2mt to make the maths easy) and we are down to £266m.

Knock off £66m for FS (keeping maths simple again!) and we are down to £200m.

Then make an adjusted based on capex. Their site is currently only accessible by helicopter and they are estimating a capex of $1,128m (-15% +25%) which is considerably higher than what I would estimate at Bushranger. I would therefore expect Bushranger to attract a premium for that... let's go with £50m.

So I am at £250m based on 2.2mt of contain Cu. Or 25p per share. And for every tonne over and above, I'd be looking for 15p. I'd be happy with a margin of error of -15% +25%!

prickly - It will be worth at least 25p per share with just 2mt of contain copper within the conceptual open pit... and CB has said he is certain we've got at least that. So why are we bothering to drill the SE anomalies if we are not going to demand a fair price for what is contained there too and simply do a deal with the first company to offer 25p?

25p for the first 2mt and then 15p per 1mt over that would seem more like it. 15p is still only 2% of the inground value of 1mt of Cu at $10k per tonne and at $7k it is still only 3%.

The (80%) AA buy back clause specifically relates to the tenement EL5574. Both Racecourse and Footrot lie within this tenement.

XTR also own 3 other exploration tenements in the surrounding area, which are not covered by the buy back clause i.e. EL8305, EL8306 and EL8585.

Source: https://xtractresources.com/wp-content/uploads/Bushranger-Summary-Presentation_April-2020.pdf

ZeroMatrix - Doing their housekeeping out of hours has an impact on market sentiment during the day and is deliberate IMO. Take your scenario, a buy order for 1m shares comes in, The MMs want to fill it as cheaply as possible, so it is to their advantage to only be reporting the sells (them buying to fill the order) and spooking more into selling. And not only spooking PI's into selling but bringing the SP down whilst they do it, further creating an illusion there is no demand and people are bailing. You have more faith in the system than me.

At the very least, it is worth flagging bigger buys being reported out of hours to other PI's who may have missed it. It is reassuring to know the company is attracting investors with deeper pockets.