Member Info for steph

We will get unaudited half yearly update shortly and the audited half yearly end of November. Last year we rose on both.

Al indications are that NAV/share will rise at least 100p (to 8.45) and we are on track for a 200p rise by year end. Smashing forecasts that thought we would never repeat the 200p 2020-21 fiscal year breakthrough for a long time.

We did not get any forward guidance on last year's October update so we might not jump until end of November. The question on all investors minds is is this a new trend or just the continuation of a one off covid related "fast nav/share Growth" that started last year but must end shortly.

The minute the investment community assesses we are increasing Nav/share at 20% plus sustainably for a few years at least due to the fundamentals of our seed to IPO UK/EU tech business model (and barriers to entry prevent other funds from duplication) there will be some sharp repricing upwards beyond our rises in NAV/share %.

For now depending on market sentiment there seems to be some confusion if we should trade at a premium at all of what is our approximate but unreported updated NAV/share. IN the long run it does not matter too much as we will rise in proportion to NAV/share increases regardless of the base premium (or lack of).

It does seem that entry to the FT250 has added rather than subtracted volatility. We seem to get labeled as small company tech and thus even more volatile than big US company tech. So for every sneeze in the global sector and we catch a cold. We seem to bounce back quickly though. Not fair but nothing is fair in investing, just a series of opportunities.

https://technation.io/news/uk-tech-extends-lead-over-europe/

There was an AI generated nonsense article yesterday somewhere that there had been no Director buys for 3 months and some sells 3 months ago. Gave the impression on the headline directors we selling.

Looking forward to the update. Seems to be no end to this level of volatility. Money to be made playing the swings but I’m a long term holder and just find them irritating. ON average it must hurt the SP. A stable stock is worth more than one bouncing about even if the monthly averages are identical. Even for me a big fan of GROW I have adjusted slightly downwards the maximum leverage I might have on my spread bet.

Be nice to get a director buy or two just to steady the market

Maybe they are not allowed so close to the update

That would be nice. I’d like GROW to exit all the post IPO shares I think these are partly the cause of the extra volatility we now have. Cazoo up today.

Probably a good time to top up but I feel jinked. Every time I top up these days it drops like a stone immediately afterwards.

Lookig forward to the update. I think we are volatile on silly misconceptions and the underlying news is all good and solid. IN the past we have always have a few minor downgrades of the core portfolio but this time I’m expecting a near full house in terms of decent sized upgrades. We shall see. Sector booming.

https://www.irishnews.com/business/2021/10/20/news/more-than-80-investors-gather-in-belfast-to-seek-deals-with-local-firms-2483564/

Thanks

Yes I think the update will surprise the market on the upside. It seems holding by holding to be great news all round.

I bought a few wetherspoons. If the market crashes maybe we wil all drink more at an inexpensive pub with cheap grub and beer.

Spoons shares have drifted down over the last few months but I think they will come out of covid stronger and buy a bunch of financially distressed independents at “covid” prices. Many years ago I had spoons at 3.50 but sold out.

If as sage wisely points out some traded tech stock is at unsustainable P/E’s and that market is “frothy” then there are two solutions.

1) get into a time machine and invest pre-froth
2) invest in a value chain that is pre IPO and not yet affected by the froth.

With GROW we get the chance on the whole to invest pre froth. Seed funds the same market. All valuations that are based on multiples of sales have the same multipliers applied as ever. Only later round funding rounds might be affected and then only some and not all. GROW’s business model is the next best thing to having a time machine.

If you imagine the GROW value chain as pre round A (seed) all the way to round e (never heard of an F either) and IPO it helps a lot that IPO and beyond are “frothy” to be sure. Makes for a steeper curve. Grow can of course exit earlier pre IPO if they are concerned the end part of the value chain is too frothy and might collapse shortly - or more likely just get out at IPO or shortly afterwards and recluse the funds in the early part of the value chain. I hesitate to buy a tech traded fund tracker or sometime like POLAR right now.

Have not looked at N26 but seems to be part of a solid pattern of fin tech flying. We will bank differently in 10 years and any company that can find the new niches will be very successful. Covid forced many to bank on line who were slowly moving in that direction anyway. The transition has massively sped up.

I am familiar with El Salvador and bitcoin. Fascinating experiment and a taste of the future. Does not need to be bitcoin in the wallet can be dollars, euros or pounds. the key thing is purchase, transfer and payment independent form normal bank and credit card fees and participation. If a stall holder on 50 dollars a day gross can do that effectively on a cheap smart phone why not everybody in the world?

these retail facing internet based businesses might be a bit boring and are not a ground breaking UiPath or Graphcore but they seem to have very fast growth rates if they are picked well. All good in the mix but I like the 4 sector mix. The deep tech sector which I love sometimes does take time to maturity but when they do -wow.

Worth remembering the German endorsement just last September 17 as the clock ticks down to half year results.

https://www.sharecast.com/news/broker-recommendations/berenberg-raises-target-price-on-draper-esprit--8111822.html

I'm not tempered to go vegan just yet either but it is a big market. Keto is my thing and massively "underserved".

https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/2021-us-vc-fundraising-exits-deal-flow-charts

https://www.verdict.co.uk/uk-tech-investment-startups/

Wait and see before hiking interest rates, Bank of England rate-setters say
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/oct/14/wait-and-see-before-hiking-interest-rates-bank-of-england-rate-setter-says?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Now we know. Bit like the water draining out before a large wave comes in

What the last leg of the dip from 9.80 to 8.80 and then an equally quick recovery means we will never know. All the classic patterns of being shorted and then the shorts closing out exaggerating natural volatility.

Still think we will get back into 11 to 12 range on half yearly results . Strange time to be invested to be sure.

Good economic news leads to fears of interest rates going up and bad economic news dampens those fears. Our sp is caught in these undercurrents like flotsam back and forth.

No idea what it means but we were 25 minutes on the main exchange with a 40pt spread (959-1002) on exactly the same pontes. Zero volume. Never see that before. It always narrows in the first couple of minutes. We are now back to a more normal 9.71-9.77 buy sell range.

I don't understand the quick dip to 882 and partial quick recovery either. Just too fast and not based on the market, news or fundamentals. Something is up. Maybe we are being manipulated when we were not before. Maybe we were too small before to bother.

Early interest rate rise? Why that increasingly looks out of the question
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/oct/13/early-interest-rate-rise-why-that-increasingly-looks-out-of-the-question-uk-economy?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Some bloggers are expecting a circa 100p upgrade int eh NAV per share to be reported shortly in the half yearly update.

If so our very fast growth that started in the covid period will be continuing.

I expect grow management will try to dampen expectations that we can repeat a circa 100p pace in the second half. Ditto for any forward guidance for next year. NAV/share calculations will depend on general market mood as much as individual sales growth success of the underlying portfolio so they will prefer not to be a hostage to fickle moods and err on the conservative side. It will all come good but how fast is the debate.

We have had a long debate on what premium to NAV if any is appropriate for GROW. We have in the past been at a modest premium on trailing NAV/share. If we can show that we grow NAV/share fast and consistently (and of course stay in 100% untraded shares) it might justify a higher premium than we have historically had. Investors buy forward growth potential as well as rear facing NAV/share calculations. Personally I think we are underpriced and a “value share” for this reason. I thought we were a value share when we were 11.82 never never mind at 9.27.

You can do it right there on the LSE, just click grow fundamentals and scroll down. 748 NAV per share I recall. Also do read the annual report for grow by going to their website.

We are going up when the market is down. First time for a while. Maybe indicates we are coming off the bottom of the dip.