Member Info for steph

https://www.plansponsor.com/new-normal-interest-rates-embraced-federal-reserve/

Basically says for fundamentals factors neutral central bank rates have dropped from 4.5% to 2.5%.

I suspect is dropping further for the same reasons.

So it is not that central bank rates are too low right now in general (of course .1% Uk rates must ris e a bit) but that they were at 4.5% probably too high for too long.

The impact on long term asset prices is profound. If the risk free return has permanently halved on money then stocks will permanently rise in the normal historic price earnings ratios. This is happening. It is more advanced in US than UK EU but it is coming.

In many ways not equitable between capitalized and uncapitalized citizens. If you have enough surplus capital that you can invest and accept risk for doing so you will get richer. If you do not have surplus capital you will need to take low risk and get a poor return. the big trend towards equality of income and assets that occurred between 1945 and 19981 is over. It was a blip driven by temporary skills shortages in a newly efficient global rules based trading structure.

High volume today which for me helps clear our seller whoever that is.

Trading got suspended for a few minutes unusual for us.

Cazoo and uipath recovered to ipo price and trust pilot still above. No bad news there .

Is is probably a fund coming out or a hidden placing creating arbitrage opportunities. It will clear. Can’t remain this volatile

Beyond me . Up one day on no news down the next on no news.

Still say volatility will settle soon and above 11 quid.

a roller coster to be sure and we never had this in the past always moved with the market or company news.

Strange 2m pound buy at 13.37pm at exactly 1000.00 in the middle of low volume trades before and after well below that. I think the big boys are just playing with us on the SP. never seen that before. Buys exceed sells by 10 to 1 yet we are down. Weird.

w13 thanks for your postings.

Is interesting Molten is branding itself as "the only stock market tech VC listed firm. It does highlight the upstream part of the business -that some other funds tha do prvate tech simly do not have. Not easy to get into those VC funds so high barriers to entry bit of the business and part of the justification for trading above trailing NAV/share. Two big benefits of the VC side. One it make profit on it's own. Two it gives GROW first pick of round A private tech equity funding. Indeed GRWO increasingly lead on that so front seat at the table.

I acknoweldge SAGE"s assessment that our current premium over tialignNAV/SHARE about right for the marekt (in other words the jump up to 11.88 an overshoot and the dip to 8.888 an undershoot) but for my money I disagree. I think 11.88 is where we should be right now given the market and the update. Something is holding us back. Maybe a fundraising that we don't know about yet or maybe a fund selling down in light volume every time we pick up a bit.

Either was it will clear. I hope in time for Christmas and we can feast on 12 quid.

https://tech.eu/brief/draper-esprit-aims-to-make-more-possible-rebrands-to-molten-ventures/

https://www.***************************/draper-esprit-change-name-to-molten-ventures-plc/4121032257

Now we are a rocket ship. Thing about rocket ships is they do come down to earth at some point.

Anyhow right now branding publicity is good publicity. We were too much a hidden gem

The name change does not do much for me but the marketing as part of any rebranding that should start today may have a positive impact on our SP which I think is underpriced quite a bit following shush stellar results. The more marketing and publicity we get the higher the SP. We have a good news story to tell not BS.

Phil

Let’s try this.

The internet of data and objects is a massive area worth 100’s of trillions. There is an unresolved pinch point for things for the last mile.

Within upper income homes and offices in Victorian London was an iintercomectivity of both mail and objects over a geographic area that is yet to be surpassed. Even Royal Mail could achieve same day service (often supported cross river by pneumonic post office to post office delivery) and there was plenty of private delivery services to deliver mail and objects door to door within the hour. Why did London then the global HK of some many key companies develop this “internet of things” well it was good for business.

Today the same thing but with global instantaneous exchange for mail and quicker and quicker delivery of objects even from remote regions in China is developing fast. I am impressed with MANNA achieving a last mile secure drop in 3 minutes for objects. The market is huge. Glad GROW is in on it. There will be many more niches to exploit with ambitions start ups.

Yes I suppose getting a bag of cement delivered rather than your burgers might irritate those less tolerant of the occasional hick up of new technology. :) Anyway no fears we (Sheffield U, Arups and the old regional develop the agencies) failed in the then called technology development grant so UK never led on this.

Whole area of last mile impressive. I’m very glad GROW management recognize this crucial link in the “internet of objects”. Amazon and ALibaba just the slow beginning.

Thing holding it up was last mile delivery. About 40% of attempted delivery back in 2010 that required a legal hand over was aborted hugely increasing costs. Manna by being nearly instantaneous to the order timing eliminates the problems as well as being able to drop within your fence line unlike parcel force, etc.

Just very very impressed with the breadth of sectors of interest to grow management. From what little I know of that broad sector they are picking very very intelligently. really impressed.

w13 great company. Huge future. already has EU license.

I did look at last mile delivery for UK government briefly in 2010. We were looking at using a pipe (small pipe buried along with all utilities) and a self propelled capsule that went through it all the way from store to inside the house if needed. BI like the phunmatic tubes you see in a hospital and some stores but able to share communal pipe and to thus gate itself.

The advantage is cost and the weight limit. We calculated the operational cost as 10 p per delivery. Manna charges 3 to 5 euros. We were looking at a 40mm to 60mm pipe so capsule could carry a grocery bag or even a bag of cement.

The downside and why you have not had one yet is jurisdictional organization. Putting a pipe under the roads and sidewalk requires government collaboration and has high capital costs -unless you do it in a brand new community and lay it in the utility corridors that will be created anyway for sewage pipes.

Manna avoids that problem. It needs a small office on the roof of a mall with multiple food providers able to carry goods to it and drops strait in the home of the customer. Neat. Can even link micro businesses to customers if they can store the drones in a safe launch site. I'd imagine great for small towns but works well for suburbs.

I've noticed cottage prices soaring in Canada as people reprise them due to the ability to work form home. This is one more support for that "live anywhere" have the same service level as apartment living in a major conurbation.

The more I look at it them move likely I think the odd retrace from 11.88 all the way to 8.88 in such a short time with nothing but unusually good company news about to be announced (and no general market retrace) is due to fundraising in the background. Only when that is over will this volitilaity end.

Last time GROW promised I think a way us retail investor can participate in any future fundraising. ???

Anyway if we are about to get fundraising announced I am guessing the offer price will be our new trailing NAV/share of 885 or thereabouts (as last time) and thus the dip to 8.88 as liquidity was drained.

We shall see.

BOth Sage and I are in full agreement that this will rise in proportion to NAV/share increases. It is just the natural starting point of premium (or lack of) we debate. SO even if you consider the current modest premium of 14.6% as the norm going forward it is still a cracking great share if it can increase NAV/Share and thus SP by 15% to 20% consistently. Personally I think we will be 20% plus for some years to come and the “natural” premium of NAV/sage is closer to the (11.88-8.88)/8.88 or 33.8% and will slowly rise to 70% as the market adjusts to the ability to grow consistently at a fast pace in different market condition due to our ecosystem and that there are barriers to entry for other funds to really duplicate.

We have had a long debate on the premium, or lack of over NAV/share.

History is a good guide. Roughly we have bounced about between NAV/Share and 50% premium since we entered the market in 2016. There was a brief dip below NAV/share in the height of the Covid panic on fears the underlying companies would retrace in sales which they did not at all. SO our 10% right now is less than historical averages at this stage and in relation to the % increases of NAV per share I think an outlier on the low side. The faster our NAV/share increase the higher the premium should be.

My view is that historical averages are not a good guide to the future. If we can maintain 20% plus NAV/share increases year on year (looking increasingly the baseline) and there are sufficient barriers to entry that other funds can’t easily replicate the whole ecosystem including the feeders and Round A fundraising (where other funds don’t have a chance to understand the quality without a lot of boots on the ground, or persons on the video conference call these days) than the premium should rise over time as the market prices in our steady and predictable growth.

We now know the dip from a peak of 11.82 to 8.88 in a short space of time was not due to some hidden bad news. Seems like too much volatility. .

ALso we know from yesterday that volume was low for such a dramatic announcement and oddly buys balanced sells. NO big moves.

We also know we will have a name change next week.

We know GROW have an ambition to reach the FTSE 100 in a few years. They can get there with organic growth but will be faster with periodic capital raising.

I suspect there has been some capital raising again and the price is set in relation to NAV/share. IF so this would drain liquidity out of the market as the big boys could wait to take shares at say NAV and thus in light trading we went down to the potential price in the capital raising.

For us to get back to 11.82 or beyond the capital raising (is there is some going on) will need to be completed and the big boys go back onto the regular market to top up.

We have been 11.80 twice recently without the support of this amazing update

Must be days or weeks away to get back there and beyond

https://www.cityam.com/draper-espirit-anticipate-1-3bn-vc-portfolio/

We shot up less than we will over the next few hours/days/weeks

Thus I topped up substantially, on open. Good luck all.

Absolutely insanely good update.

We get 885 NAV share already at half year results which means a 26% upgrade to fair value.

Predicted 35% fair value increase by year end. Insane pace. Policy is 15% per annum and for 2 years running we are way way above that. Must mean we can up the 15% target. It is too conservative fo the business model and sector.

Just insane rate of growth and no warnings it will slow down -as we had on year end (which have turned out to be 100% wrong).

How much we will jump today and the next 4 weeks is hard to say. I think we must be heading for above 12 quid by Christmas. This update is better than my most hopeful predictions.

Must congratulate GROW staff for keeping these stellar results so secret. There was no hint of a quite normal drift up which indicates nobody was inadvertently tipped off.

Fantastic

bit of economic WW2 era history

" much to the consternation of Vichy and German (Nazi) authorities this low interest policy (2% n Vichy France) produced a boom in the stock market" .

This Vichy French stock market boom was in spite of a sharp contraction in the French economy due to war reparations of 20% initially rising to 40% of GDP and paid out immediately without recourse to smoothing by borrowing. IN other words stock markets (assets) can boom even during the most horrific contraction of the economy so long as interest rates are very low. Weird but true.

To have all G7 with central bank interest rates below 2% for over a decade and most printing money to boot (which Vichy France did not) is unprecedented. I think the rise in asset values has only started. There was a delay because markets thought the interest rate rises were temporary. Once the market accepts 2% or lower is more or less permanent asset prices probably have a way to go.

Of course volatility along the way but so long as you have a 5 + year view a very good time to be in stocks -especially tech which has other advantages in the shifting economy.