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Still, even epidemiologists who have been the most outspoken in urging protection from the virus urged calm on Friday, noting that little is known about the variant and that several seemingly threatening variants have come and gone in recent months.

“Substantively NOTHING is known about the new variant,” Roberto Burioni, a leading Italian virologist, wrote on Twitter, adding that people should not panic.

Stocks tumbled around the world on Friday as the news of the variant spooked

For my money I think stocks will recover much lost ground Monday when panic over. No evidence is more deadly or less vulnerable to existing vaccines. Might be more easy to spread amongst unvaccinated but that is increasingly an Africa only problem and a decreasing problem in developed countries. Topped up Rolls rolls Royce as well as Molten. If I was really brave I’d buy IAG (BA) but maybe a step too far even for me.

Thanks for the link

Interesting what she said about premium over nav/share

I’m even more bullish than her as I think there are substantial barriers to entry for what molten holds and does so it is a bit of a hybrid between a traditional trust (sp = nav per share but with maybe a bit of where it will be in 12 months thrown in) and a individual fast growing firm with a unique strategy you can’t buy in any other way (and this many times nav/share on occasion).

This dip based on minor news of a new strain just show how Covid can really move the markets

Also topped up on rolls Royce

Yes but in the past the formal NAV has been very close to the estimate. Difference is unaudited vs audited.

Half yearly updates are normally 70 page affairs with a lot of information. I am hoping that will give us a lift as does the podcasts and interviews that normally accompany it. Also news on sales of IPO’d shares might be forthcoming. That would help especially if we sold some UIPath when it was way above IPO. IPO’d at 265, went up to 450 and is now 300. So any disposals wil be above IPO and give our NAV/share a boost.

Thanks for th free trade update.

Every update on funding rounds seems to have a doubling of our stake or tripling . In the past 5 years a new funding round did not always have a big nav increase involved but all the rounds since covid have had big ones. I think there is more to come. I take sage’s point this can not continue forever but it is only affecting the circ 40% to 60% of our core portfolio that has last round valuations. The calculated nav’s of the remainder are at a lower than last time (and lower than benchmarks on my research for such large private tech firms) multiple of sales . Also while can not last forever there is a permanent shift in our start up to IPO path. It is now steeper than it has been and thus more profit to be made if one gets in at the early stages as we do. Let’s assume the “frothy IPO or close to IPO valuations flat line. We still make higher than normal ports for many years (and in theory forever) as our early stage investments mature and get to that late stage. It is a bit like having a crystal ball to have the full pathway in our portfolio. It is only if the prices paid for early stage investments get frothy does our business model get compromised. o sign of that in UK EU. Tech start ups still short of cash and offering a lot of equity for very little cash. A lot of UK EU start up costs are given free from EU universities and government. So arbitrage and leverage. They need the cash and the opportunities are there.

Generally quite low volumes. As if liquidity has been drained and we drift down on relatively small sells.

I’m hoping we are made up of institutions in for the long haul and just going through a bit of a transition that Weil sort itself in the not distant future. Maybe Draper is coming out due to projects elsewhere that need funding and has permission (directly or his allies) to sell which he may not have had in the past. Maybe another fund coming out due to internal policies.

At just over trailing NAV/share we are at a relative low historically and at a time of faster than average growth in NAV/share (which should in theory aid the premium paid).

we dipped well below NAV/share for a short period in the middle of the covid scare March 2000 but normally trade above NAV/share and sometimes substantially so. Can’t see anything in our results or general market to suggest otherwise so a rise of 20% or so to our historical average premium of NAV/share surely on the cards in the not distant future.

Personally I think the stellar results for the last three half years points to us shifting a gear in terms of NAV/share growth for some time to come. With that should come a record breaking premium of NAV/share for us. Sadly no sign of that yet. I’d be glad right now just to get back to our average premium.

Made 11 quid on my morning top up. THe first of many to come I hope. Bit of a game for me to make at least one top up on the absolute bottom of any big dip (and then conveniently forget all the other top ups that were well off the bottom).

https://www.eu-startups.com/2021/11/crowdcube-looks-to-continue-european-expansion-after-e11-8-million-boost-from-us-unicorn-circle/

Geopolitics will bring this long bull market to a close, not interest rates
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/11/24/geopolitics-will-bring-long-bull-market-close-not-interest-rates/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_iosshare_AyHHptb6hyHZ

I agree that ipo and maybe some last round last stage fundraising are a bit frothy but Molten is partially vaccinated against that froth in 4 key ways the rest of the tech index is not.

Over half of the Molten NAV is much earlier feeder funds, fund administration fees and early stage UK EU start ups yet to benefit form the late stage frothy valuations. As long as the froth towards the tail end of the start up to IPO process holds roughly steady we will get a great boost for years to come.

Secondly the EU tech is still at much lower multiples than US tech. SO American money coming on over and will continue until parity is reached. Just less money chasing private tech in the EU than USA so better value.

Thirdly the froth is caused by low interest rates. It is only froth if one thinks the rates will go back up to “normal” in the foreseeable future. FOr my money I think not. We will have sub 2% central bank rates into the foreseeable future. Money seeking a positive return above the nominal inflation rate will seek out tech shares even at terrible P/E ratios. It is better than nothing.

Fourthly I think tech in general has a way to run. FOr decades there was no measurable increase in productivity in offices due to computers. I do think we have reached a tipping point accelerated by covid lockdowns. SO decades of catch up may be experienced in a few golden years for tech (bad years for run of the mill accountants, architects, bankers, tellers, engineers and lawyers) and we are only at the beginning of that paradigm shift. Some of the most vulnerable jobs and professions still in a skills shortage so very early days. . Trillions of value shift to be had shortly and tech will get a good slice of that. A P/E of 50 is not ridiculous if the tech firm can grow 20% per year consistently over the next 10 years. Many will do that. Maybe even the UK/EU private sector as a whole will do that and any decent stock picker trust (with early intelligence through feeder funds) within that much better. I think Molten will average NAV upgrades per share in excess of 25 to 30% for many years and our current sp will look like a amusing footnote in history in 10 years.

With compounding (and without any premium of trailing NAV/share -ridiculous I think but Sage might be OK with this assumption) we reach 109 quid in 10 years if 25% growth. It all depends on the growth rate. For the last year and a half we have had a NAV/share growth rate well above this in spite of some headwinds like a 50 m currency adjustment and a dilution due to fundraising -dilutions bring down the NAV/share in the short run as earnings from the original shares are amortized over a larger share base ). Valuations based on multiples of sales are very conservative still and do not take into account the much higher valuations achieved at IPO and last round. There is lot of gas still in the tank on valuations.

I wonder if part of our name change Draper and his allies are s

Getting there

I just topped up. I think Monday will be a good day. Not so much the NAV confirmation but the publicity that normally goes on with formal results. UI path down 7% today, cazoo holding steady and at IPO, trustpilot steady but only a small amount above IPO. We are neither being helped or hurt by the 3 traded holdings. I am hoping we will announce some disposals of these. I think they are holding back our SP premium over NAV/share.

We track most closely the US tech index which is up a bit since we hit 11.80. We had stellar interim results exceeding any published expectations.

So why this drift substantially below 10 and how long will it take to get back to 11.8?

I still say we might have a fundraising that we don’t know about but the big holders do and thus liquidity has been drained. Maybe a bit of arbitrage if big funds are allowed to sell down and rebuy in the offering at a known price.

Failing that I have to accept this is the volatility we have. Wide range to be sure. 11.88 to 9.88 on little change in news or background market. More like a penny stock than the largest EU VC traded fund. We have always been sensitive as us tech has been to perceptions of interest rates going up but no reason to be mor volition e than us tech index and a lot of reason to be less volatile. Our underlying portfolio is valued at an average of sales (and profits on those sales) much less than the US traded big boys.

We shall see if Monday brings us the start of a quick SP recovery to what I think should be closer to 12 quid than 9 or 10. Good luck all.

Interesting how much this dip has affected our confidence. I’m the only one above 10.8 even though we were well above 10.8 recently and had a great preliminary result and the market (benchmarked against the US tech index) is holding quite well.

Just shows excessive volatility affects the average sp, which in turn affects fundraising when needed so a real incentive to use communication to smooth it out a bit. Spooky such a wide range when little news to drive it up or down.

So far facts seem to be on your side.

Any others want to put a friendly prediction for closing price dec24? I’m all alone above 11 quid.

Let’s all for fun predict the sp market close 24th of December

I say 12.00

Wish me luck

Maybe we will not move until 29th November half year results. There was very little publicity given to spectacular preliminary RNS. I was surprised we did not go up more and hold gains. The two spikes to 11.80 before update could not have fully been aware of the spectacular update upgrade. So we now have a more solid base to do the same.

We seem to have a big seller or two who sell as soon as we start to go up a bit. Volumes up so might clear soon. Volatility frustrating but for my money I think we will get back to 11.80 by Christmas, maybe beyond.

General market holding nicely. Jitters over the first tiny interest rate rise seem to be just that.

Future of money, interest rates and sustainable P/E ratios for shares.
Normally (pre-printing money) central banks don’t directly create money supply. They did and do so indirectly by regulation of ratios that private banks use when they lend out more than they have on deposit. If requests to borrow are down the money supply contacts and inflation goes down. This is the problem post crash. Not enough wiling borrowers even at these low interest rates. The Japanization of the G7.
IN our new world this is being upended. Central banks are expanding the money supply directly through printing. Private banks have become more conservative post 2009 crash on lending. This has made banks less profitable (see share prices have not recovered for pre financial crash levels). Why this did not happen sooner I don’t know. Why let the private banks have all the profit from creating money supply? .
Also there is a mega trend on non-bank and even non formal currency transactions. This decreases demand for cash and is in itself deflationary as there is no authorized surplus of lending over deposits. Peer to peer lending (of which Molten have a stake) is fiscally neutral. Cryptos decrease the flow of cash through traditional currencies and banks and thus decrease liquidity needed to expand the money supply. I also suspect that tax avoidance is creating global companies who move money about without converting it to taxable cash. Basically internally planned private economies moving resources (staff hours) about without the full value being booked in each country or business process.
So while peer to peer and crypto are tiny they are rapidly growing sectors that push down inflation -which encourages lower real interest rates. More interesting and unstudied from what I can see is the ability of the service sector in general and global tech in particular to move money about without fully passing it through national or global currency systems. This “new economy” decreases money supply and is anti-inflationary as a result. Global manufacturing was unable to do this as physical goods needed to be declared as they passed a border. Not so with services and the value of time. There can be a near perfect match between salary paid (cash) and sale achieved (cash) no matter where in the world they two occur. Manufacturing has multiple points when the value added uses cash as the value chains needed cross national boundaries.

https://www.economist.com/schools-brief/2020/09/10/governments-can-borrow-more-than-was-once-believed

I'm no accountant and much appreciate blog comment on my crude attempts to understand the GROW/Molten accounts. Really hard to understand a trust’s real portfolio. Sparse data. I’d like to see a dashboard on sales per core portfolio company, margins and gross profit. I’d like to see much more detail on the NAV colocations when not last round and for last round the precise date of the last round.

However on long term economic trend more in my element.

I do think the silliness of things to use central bank interest rates to control inflation in the 60’s and 70’s is a thing of the past. Fiscal policy is well recognized as much better and more precise but politicians are unable to use it. Regan did the opposite to raise taxes when the fiscal cycle warranted it and he got the Regan boom for his heresy and 2 terms in office.

Going forward Biden and the rest will move heaven and earth not to raise interest rates more than a token amount. They all can borrow money below the real interest rate and the longer a government holds that debt at negative interest rates the lower it is in real terms. Way too tempting. If the G7 continues to all do the same at the same time there is nowhere for money to go except into shares and property. Shares are still a long way from negative real returns so that trend has room to run.
Property still has room to run. Farmland has for some time in the UK been at multiples of earnings of 100x without volatility but there are emotional reasons to own farm land. You can still get 5 % yield or more for buying rental property in the UK and rest of G7 so well above the real inflation rate and a thus a real return. Chicago and the like are at near 10% yield but that will come down a bit as property prices rise faster than rents. We are witnessing a great rebalancing.

Anyhow going forward all this talk about big enough interest rate rises to crash shares is just that. The market panics and overshoots thought (and just as quickly reverses itself) so volatility may remain high during the transition. The trend though is low interest rates are here to stay and thus the relatively high multiple of P/E is also here to stay.

https://www.brusselstimes.com/opinion/122929/negative-interest-rates-are-becoming-the-new-normal/