Member Info for steph

https://walletinvestor.com/lse-stock-forecast/grow-stock-prediction

Been selling now below 5% according to Rns

Maybe that was our seller and reason for the depth of the dip.

Getting

https://www.***************************/molten-ventures-plc-26.4-potential-upside-indicated-by-berenberg-bank/4121036542

Thanks

We have now a wide range of 12 month broker targets from 10 to 13

We have historically ran past our broker targets as I think they have trouble figuring out who we really are. A trust or a service company specializing in Uk eu unlisted teck. We are actually both and normally don’t hold past ipo so not a true traded tech trust with a sp Roughly = nav/share.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-10260153/Officials-say-people-got-second-jab-booster-6-months-protected-against-Omicron.html

Going up as mysteriously as it went down. I suspect the high volume yesterday was our seller finally getting out and now we are back to a more natural market -which means a modestly higher sp.

A benign omicron may be the answer to our economic prayershttps://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/11/30/bears-beware-omicron-may-yet-deliver-roaring-economic-recovery/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_iosshare_AyJ4GgHYdw3x

A benign omicron may be the answer to our economic prayers

Quite high volume today so whoever was our seller may have been able to exit

Even if we “just” go up in lock step to NAV/share increases from here it is a steep curve up ahead into the foreseeable future.

I’m 25k down on my attempt to play the last dip so far. Ouch! Just shows that a long term hold strategy sometimes best. Buy and then lock away for a few years and ignore the minor ups and downs. Keep telling myself to do that and keep dipping in.

I just sold a few on my spread at a price I hate just to bring down the leverage to 41%. Quite safe to hold on my spread 41% more than I have cash somewhere to cover. Even on a sudden overnight 40% dip I’ll not get a margin call. SO I’m fully invested plus a few extra in my spread and will wait it out some time before any further trimming or diversification in my spread. In my ISA pure Molten fully paid for shares and will likely hold them for 10 years.or more. Just can’t see another share with the same potential, especially from this price.

Looking like SAGE has facts on his side thus far post September 6 when we hit 11.80.. It may take time to get back to the that level. I don’t understand the dip but am not fussed if we get a quick rebound or a 6 to 12 month rebound. We have 11.80 marked out very clearly before all this good news so we will get back there and beyond soon enough.

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2021/06/14/draper-esprit-growth-prospects-undimmed/

I think they catch the mood more than follow hard KPI’s within the last 20%. For my money I think we are worth +50% over trailing nav/share plus or minus 20% based on market mood. I think being as we are near trailing NAV/share is a temporary dip.

I view Molten as a bit like the old conglomerates. Value was being lost by over bundling of disparate businesses. There is a side to grow (call it part 1) that is really a revenue earning service company to start ups and fund raising. NAV/share from this bit of GROW is meaningless as a valuation benchmark. It is not a trust.

There is 3 more sides with different relationships to NAV. There is the post IPO bit which should trade at the daily calculation of NAV/share or even a5% below.

There is two more bits. Early round private sector UK/EU tech where not all trusts would even know about never mind be invested. Round A’s are not necessarily advertised nor fund investment published. That bit might more accurately be at a premium of NAV/share. Late round NAV/share calculation might more accurately be a modest premium of NAV/share reflecting some barriers to entry by outer funds and fast growth.

Splitting Molten into these 4 bits might add value. The traded bit is so visible even though a modest % of the total I think investors overweight it. Even ALexandria Jackson who was bullish seemed to base her 20% premium of NAV/share thoughts on a fast growing trust than something more complex and in parts more akin to a revenue based service company.

JEFFERIES CUTS MOLTEN VENTURES PRICE TARGET TO 1000 (1200) PENCE - 'HOLD'

“. South African scientists said there was no evidence of the variant causing serious illness, and no hospitalisations have yet been recorded. “

If this turns out to be true (early days to be sure) the variant is the opposite of bad news for the markets.

A more transmittable but much less severe mutation is how this whole nightmare ends.

Would not surprise me if this turns out to have been an engineered and planted mutation but it will be decades until we know that one as no nation will want to take responsibility for knowingly infecting Africans. Regardless on whether it is a natural or induced mutation it might be good news once the panic subsides. Top up time for me I think in grow and maybe a bit more rolls Royce.

https://www.altfi.com/article/8583_thought-machine-now-a-cloud-banking-unicorn-thanks-to-jp-morgan-standard-chartered-and-ing

https://www.cityam.com/molten-ventures-tech-bets-pay-off-as-portfolio-value-leaps-almost-30-per-cent-to-1-35m/

Disposal of Trustpilot and Uk path strong which is good. No significant disposals of cazoo yet but it is a modest holding. We have come down significantly the % held in traded shares and recycled the money upstream. GOod for our premium over NAV/share which is damaged if investors think we have a portfolio of traded shares.

Fabulous earnings per share. Beyond me why more of this is not priced in.

No mention of the average multiple of earnings for the part of teh portfolio that is on multiples and not last round or traded.

I’m pleased with the fast rate of disposal of traded shares and expect this will lift us over the next few weeks.

We might pop a bit on open due to covid scare rebound and this update.

Early days yet but city AM article points in a potential very positive direction. Mutation towards being milder but more infectious has survival benefits for the virus and thus why it in time tends to happen but has big benefits for stocks. The new variant will become part of the global solution to normality. SO long as infection by the new variant helps fight all variants it is like an involuntary vaccine for the anti-vaccine crowd in the developed countries and a zero cost “vaccine” for the general African unvaccinated populations. Bit of a nationality lottery right now on who has the choice.

Of course vaccinated is better than being infected for all sorts of reasons but having mild covid is also protection from future reinfection by any strain and helps slow down the spread of all strains towards covid extinction.

Stocks should rebound a bit today but if this new mutation is really a milder more infections strain stocks will soar -especially travel related stock. It will be part of the endgame.

https://www.cityam.com/coronavirus-blessing-in-the-sky-omicron-may-be-very-positive-news-for-the-world-if-new-covid-mutation-kills-off-more-lethal-delta-variant/

Doctor who discovered Omicron variant says UK 'panicking unnecessarily' and that symptoms 'extremely mild'

The doctor who discovered the Omicron variant said the UK was “panicking unnecessarily” and that the symptoms are “extremely mild”.
Dr Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association, told The Andrew Marr Show she first encountered the variant in a man in his early 30s who presented with tiredness and a mild headache, but none of the usual coronavirus symptoms.
She said: “What we are seeing clinically in south Africa, and remember I’m at the epicentre - that’s where I’m practising - it’s extremely mild. For us, that’s mild cases.”

https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2021/11/26/a-new-covid-19-variant-has-emerged

Uipath cazoo and Trustpilot held up well on the Friday dip.

Dip itself all happened in the opening minutes and had no legs beyond that. Interesting pattern. Not a Black Friday dip in spite of the initial kick.

I think we are in the bizarre paradigm that bad news means later interest rate rises and thus canceled itself out. Weird.