Member Info for steph

A chance that the traded 3 UIPath, cazoo, and Trustpilot might dip with a market dip from here. As reported disposals are occurring so somewhat protected.

privately owned companies will be valued by multiples of sales or last round. It would take a pretty drastic recession for sales to decline. None declined and all boomed in the recession brought about by COVID.

I think it highly improbable that we will have a NAV/share dip. What would be the basis? Valuations are closely correlated with sales. No sign of that dipping.

The sp did dip below NAV/share though in the peak of the covid panic. Quickly recovered though. Ditto for the Brexit vote dip.

Did not catch the absolute bottom today but close. Wish me luck.

Of course. But it does indicate what happens if you put in a value for our fabulous growth rate. As we speak we are at trailing NAV/share which I find ridiculous. In 5 years then we we be at a much Higher NAV/share. Why not pay for at least part of that increase in anticipation?

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/diversified-financials/lse-grow/molten-ventures-shares

Of course this formula does not take into account there are other ways to own at least part of the portfolio and thus whatever the fair value based on growth of NAV/share the other ways of owning that part need to move too.

That said maybe all ways of owning this portfolio are underpriced (and large bits can not be owned in any other way) and it matters not which way to hold these unlisted tech shares one has. In the long run they wil all outperform the market. TEh price we are paying does not reflect the fabulous growth potential.

Interesting they quote analysist forecasts for earnings of over 300m for the next 3 years. While not higher than now it is still a fantastic forecast.

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/diversified-financials/lse-grow/molten-ventures-shares/news/if-you-like-eps-growth-then-check-out-molten-ventures-longro

trustpilot still above IPo price (only just) and by far our largest post ipo holding so drag on Molten SP should be modest of IPO 3 share dip . I think some investors use IPO pricing as a proxy for our non listed portfolio and thus we bounce around with IPO pricing a bit too much. Thus the post Ftse 250 volatility we are experiencing both up and down.

I'm battened down to wait for full year results in April/May before even minor adjustments in my holding. Might top up if we dip below 900. Teh longer we can show NAV/share growth above 20% pa the more the market will accept that as normal for us and give us a better premium of trailing NAV/share to reflect the growth than we have now (almost nothing).

Let’s hope there will be further post ipo sales to announce shortly. I think dragging us down in an exaggerated way due to being the only visible tip of the ice burg.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/omicron-covid-pandemic-hope-milder-london-cases-b975618.html

Iag and travel stocks certainly have been literally flying on mild omicron news. Rolls Royce lagging a bit.

Sausage octopus won the Christmas prediction at 10.00 even.

Let’s hope this is the base to a nice steady rise to 12 quid by year end results or earlier.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59769969

You heard this first early enough to invest.

Sold some of my iag today taking profit.

I am humiliated though on my molten predictions for Christmas. More like year end results to get back to circa 12 quid now.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/12/and-now-for-the-good-news-about-omicron.html

For my money I’m with “the world may have gotten. Really lucky” although it will take a few weeks for markets to settle as politics on new restrictions side so far.

I and holding grow but buying rr and iag.

Thanks for article

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/omicron-thrives-airways-not-lungs-new-data-asymptomatic-cases-2021-12-15/

Looking more and more like the scary end game. A big surge of a more transmittable but less severe variant.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/12/11/early-data-on-omicron-show-surging-cases-but-milder-symptoms

It does seem much milder and more infectious. Unlike delta it seems to be much milder in the elderly .

If this gets confirmed very good news god travel stock and generally good for market.

Us inflation at 6.8 % and not only ultra low interest rates but still printing money. Wei r in strange times.

If we don’t have 4% central bank rates with inflation at 6.8 % we can assume we never will.

There are quite a lot of natural deflationary pressures at the moment technology amongst them. That is why the g7 has absorbed low interest rates and printing money without inflation thus far, for my money I think the risk is deflation and low interest rates are here to stay. That has investment consequences.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/dec/09/covid-news-live-england-moves-to-plan-b-three-pfizer-shots-can-neutralise-omicron-lab-tests-show?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Monday market should surge a bit especially travel related stocks

Great article. The pool just gets bigger and bigger and Molten the biggest specialized player.

LOts of money to be made just facilitating other funds coming in -as we do. That revenue earning niche is different than the trust side and is not reflected in our SP.

I do think this share will have. 20% growth of NAV/share year on year for some time to come and not only will that give us 20% SP growth year on year but some of that future growth will start to get priced in -so “fuel in the tank”.

More and more evidence that latest Covid mutation is more infectious and less severe. Goldilocks for economic disruption.

I’m topping up generally although this might put some pressure on interest rates to go up so maybe not listed tech

Consensus revenue estimates increase to UK£303.3m
The consensus outlook for revenues in 2022 has improved.

2022 revenue forecast increased from UK£204.3m to UK£303.3m.
EPS estimate increased from UK£1.45 to UK£1.80 per share.
Net income forecast to shrink 34% next year vs 18% growth forecast for Capital Markets industry in the United Kingdom .
Consensus price target broadly unchanged at UK£11.25.
Share price fell 3.3% to UK£8.86 over the past week.

https://www.thehealthsite.com/news/covid-19-live-updates-omicron-is-super-mild-no-need-to-panic-say-who-experts-850493/

I’m topping up RR and Molten

https://www.cityam.com/from-covid-curse-to-blessing-coronavirus-experts-relief-grows-as-extremely-mild-omicron-variant-rapidly-exterminates-much-more-deadly-delta-mutation/

Sage only history will tell the future premium, or lack of, for SP vs NAV/share. There are arguments as you so wisely put forward that it will be small or nonexistent. Performance wil to a large extent drive the premium. If Molten can achieve a steady rise in NAV/share year on year and investors think it is in part due to a unique business model (and not just rising with the sector) well at least a 2 or 3 years of future growth will surely start to get regularly priced in as a premium over trailing NAV/share. I think we are nearly there.

Companies get a big premium when they become dominant in their sector. Monopoly pricing it is believed. Molten while not a big firm is a market leader in it’s niche. So long as the nich is profitable enough and big enough that should mean strong profits above peers.

“However, interest rates have stayed at rock bottom levels for far longer than officials anticipated when they brought in the rules, while a rise in the base rate to 3pc now seems outlandish.”

0 to 2% is becoming the new normal and thus there has been a permanent shift in the relative attractiveness of shares and property.

auci Says Omicron Data ‘a Bit Encouraging’ (11:30 a.m. NY)

Initial data from South Africa, the epicenter of the outbreak of the omicron variant, are “a bit encouraging regarding the severity,” Anthony Fauci said on Sunday.