Member Info for steph

Thanks for the article. Yes a “no brainer”

With guidance for year end already on the table that shows continued NAV/share growth in second half and huge nav/share growth in the first half (on top of a great year beforehand) we are on track for a spurt once the market catches on.

Yes projectman the discount is not normal for us. Briefly we had it in the immediate covid scare when some thought life was ending but it quickly disappeared. I’m tempted to top up a bit more.

Rapper yes Molten was a dumb marketing move. Renamed at the peak of the froth it just made us look flakey rather than a 20 year old fund with solid track record thick or thin. I hope we did not pay much for the marketing “advise”.

UK-based financial tech firms won sevenfold funding rise last year to $37bn
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/feb/07/uk-based-financial-tech-firms-won-sevenfold-funding-rise-last-year-to-37bn?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

On my top up days recently the same. Sort of a jinx.

Will all come good though. For my money sooner rather than later -within 3 months.

Quite right workers have become more insecure and are not therefore leading inflationary pressures. Only question is how much wages will lag inflation. Ridiculous to cite wage inflation as a reason to put up interest rates and hurt workers further by slowing down economic growth.

Our gain though. The deflationary pressures of the new system placing the burden on down on the backs of the bulk of our workforce holds inflation in check. Indeed real risk is deflation.

I would imagine in the long run interest rates need to be positive (above inflation) but that seems a very long way off now. Japan has had negative real interest rates for a long time and what it does is take money from retirees and transfers it to the real economy. As much government debt is in the form of bonds retirees hold and inheritance taxes are high government debt essentially dies with them. Neat trick fiscally -we might be heading in the same direction.

The Fed is about to raise interest rates and shaft American workers – again
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/05/fed-raise-interest-rates-shaft-american-workers-robert-reich?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Andrew Bailey’s wage restraint call is not a forecast of 1970s-style inflation
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/feb/04/andrew-baileys-wage-restraint-call-is-not-a-forecast-of-1970s-style-inflation?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Statistics are averages and the urban elite we are surrounded by on this blog is a tiny percentage. Sadly the great bulk of Uk workers will have a giant standards of living squeeze as their wages will not remotely keep up with 5 or 7% inflation this year. There was an interesting study of chronic unemployment in tower hamlets neighborhoods only 100m from canary wharf. Imagine the disconnect when the geographic distance is much large.Those lucky black rock employees can literally live and work in a parallel universe.

Their squeeze is sadly our gain through a serious of feedback loops but mainly the cost of capital to those able to borrow will remain very low and the returns available for those able to take risk very high.

Yes unemployment is low statistically and historically but large chunks of that is insecure, gig, and non unionized in a way it never was before. It is much less a driver of big wage increases than it would have been historically. At the very bottom policy it is to lift wages anyway if not by market forces then by rising minimum wages and living wage policies and contracts. So nothing to do with BOE and not something they should not ever take into account.

Eu dovish as with BOJ. FEd a bit hawkish but always was but mainly talk. CHina dovish. Money will be loose for a long time yet and this abnormally long bull run still has legs tired as they may seem to be. It is part of a great pivot to equity. UK farmland has been on 1% yield for decades. It is possible and sustainable for such low yields for some asset classes. It’s wrong but who said the system was fair.

THis is just not the 1970’s. Workers will lose out and not be able to recover inflation eroding spending power. Unions are a shadow of what they were and ununionized workers just scared. They will just take the hit. Higher interest rates just makes the squeeze on households more painful.

Andy Bruce
@BruceReuters

Restraint on pay?

Three-month annualised private sector wage growth - a gauge of most recent momentum in pay trends which in the past MPC members liked to talk up when it suited their message - has been very stable

Yes jittery market and in spite of informative updates very little publicity given to them so most investments houses will be going with the general angst of unknown risky trusts owning unprofitable struggling start ups on silly multiples of earnings. Anyhow an opportunity for the better informed.

HAve not made money on my recent top ups but it will come.

Putting my money where my big mouth is I’ve topped up 5k in shares total. With me luck. I think the update put a floor under sp. The Edison projection of nav/share of 9.29 based on Molten projections only 2 months from year close is close to a sure thing.

Anything above 15% na/share increase great news and achieved in a choppy market in last half.

inevitably on a ‘long march upwards’, Andrew Bailey explained, saying:

“The MPC judges that if the economy develops broadly in line with the February report’s central protection, some further modest tightening of monetary policy is likely to be appropriate in the coming months.

“But it would be a mistake to extrapolate simplistically from what we have done today and assume that rates are now on an inevitable long march upwards

They did not say that sectorial valuations would hold only their own, not did they say anything positive about the sp of the 3 traded shares just they were over halfway there to fully getting fully out.

Basically the ability to stock pick that stands the test of a downturn plus conservative valuations .

https://www.edisongroup.com/company/molten-ventures//

On any day one must not be an emotional investor putting consideration on what we bought at before selling or what we sold at before rebuying.

The news today is unmitigated good news. No good reason to be under trailing nav/share. Nervousness nav might decline in last half effectively gone. Only a general market crash will pull us down from here.

I’ve “rebought” 3k shares on my spread. Nothing is a 3 month one way bet but this is pretty close. Good luck all.

Only bright has been announced as sold in the unlisted and they are tiny not even in our core.

That means over 100 m of disposals of listed probably at prices Nicely on average above ipo. Probably in addition to the 30 m stated in the half yearly. Great news.

ALl sage’s fears of a NAV/share downgrade in the last half specifically addressed. Even with this retrace expecting a 35% NAV/share upgrade for the year.

Happy days. Top up time I think.

Key highlights include:

· Continued momentum in deal activity, with £259m invested over the year to date, including 12 primary deals (41% of capital) and 15 follow-ons (59% of capital).

· Cash proceeds from realisations of £110m realised year to date.

· Strong revenue growth across our portfolio companies through 2021 which is forecast to continue for 2022.

· A healthy pipeline of investment opportunities, both for new portfolio companies and follow-on rounds for our existing portfolio as the companies scale.

· Year end guidance of fair value growth in the region of 35% remains.

https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/forecasts?s=GROW:LSE

Volume usually our friend. Allows those who want to exit do so in an orderly way rather than a steady drip drip in light trading that can do so much damage.

Black rock dipped below 5% ownership according to last RNS. Perhaps funds like black rock play the dip by selling and then rebuying exacerbating volatility even though they are up for a long term hold.

https://www.ft.com/content/f2dab63b-01aa-4922-bf65-23fc91f3afcd

Thanks clean

YEs I wish more of the portfolio deep tech like graphcore. Consumer facing stuff like cazoo exciting on the way up but painful on a retrace. I’ll celebrate once we get an announcement we are mostly out of our 3 traded shares trustpilot, cazoo and UIPath. ON the last update we had about 180 m of our nav in these three and they have sharply retraced since then. I’m hoping there was some more sales before the retrace bottom to report.