Member Info for steph

i meant that investors directly participating in portfolio funding rounds get a lot more info than we do.

Sage did get the overvaluation of CAZOO spot on when it was first floated and before the crash. I do think the trust retail structure has a flaw in times of market stress. That is the information needed to reassure is confidential but institution investors have the info. A basic inequality. That said as a retail investor you don’t normally get access to the prvate companies in the GROW portfolio so a bit of the wheat with the chaff so to speak.

I like all views including Sage but I do make my own decisions -some good and some bad. Nearly 100% of what I have to invest is in this share and I’ve not seen anything that would entice me to diversify -especially at this SP. I had always planned to diversify a bit above 12 and I suppose that still is still the case. I think we will have a fast run back to 12 but when this will start can’t say. Might not start for a few months and might take a couple of years to complete.

As I’ve said before I deeply appreciate your postings as contrarian views in the mix are more valuable than “group think”.

In this instance your then contrarian view has broadly come to pass -especially the Cazoo value which you quite rightly and accurately rubbished. Your contrarian view has had some influence on me and I probably topped up less on this dip than I might otherwise have done.

I think 3 is improbable. That is less than 1/3rd of NAV and the core portfolio is growing sales at 77% per annum.

Before this dip to 4 you though it might dip to 6 -broadly in the same market conditions as now. Surely this dip is overdone. GROW are confident the NAV will not retrace (conservatively enough estimated and fast growth) yet the market expects it to.

As you say most of the core will not go to market for new funds over the next 12 months (no need) -so will not be market price tested one way or another. The 2 that have gone to market post crash did fine.

WIll be key the half yearly NAV valuation in October. .

I agree that this summer will be very choppy. I’m calling it the summer of discontent. IN all this mess we have the Tories playing about with a recently signed treaty on N Ireland -which might trigger a trade dispute and certainly hurts our reputation as reliable. Italian 10 year bonds up to 4% which is a yellow card .

If we do not pick up a strategic buyer could dip further but equally can recover with a buyer building a stake. Volumes very light and no trigger points of reduced ownership visible so no (or light) institutional selling I can see.

True. If not for my leveraged spread bet I could sleep easy at night knowing these will recover sooner or later. Solid firm and spectacular results.

Wish they would buy a buy a few of their own shares. How can they justify ever buying future funding rounds of their portfolio shares at these levels and not jump at the chance of buying their own shares at such a large discount?

Poor communication by grow management. Market clearly nervous about how solid Nav calculations are after 3 traded share prices in portfolio collapsed. Assuming rest of portfolio similarly overvalued.

I accept NAV is solid even in current market conditions but management being too cute about confidentiality to give out data in enough detail that would really reassure. Need broker recommendations and a new Edison report to reassure. Maybe some more director buys. Crazy we have not had new broker recommendations since year end results.

I’m getting ****ed off. I do think there is more management can do to reduce this volatility. Great time to top up though if you have spare funds.

Where are the new post results broker ratings. The only one we have within the last year is Bereberg’s May 2022 rating of buy and guidance of 1300.

We had more following GROW when we were in AIM. Surely GROW management encouraging g the raters who have rated us in the past to rate would help stabilize the SP. Also we need anouther Edison to tackle valuation anxiety.

Falling today on micro volume. When will some serious buyer step in?

I turned off auto correct which was changing my typos into entirely new words inclusive of keystokes miles from what I had actually miss-typed Apologies. Can’t really be an investor in new technology and not master modern technology can I?

IN spite of the US tech decline yesterday after UK market closed I suspect we will drift up as the impact of the webinar sinks in. they doubled down saying no NAV/share decrease this year (unless further major deterioration in sector valuations) and I think they are credible. Surely investors will see the discount to NAV as temporary shortly and we will begin the now long march back up to NAV/share and beyond. maybe already begun and the 4.09 we touched last week is bottom.

they did not convince any actual new investors but they did convince me. I think the NAV as reported (interesting tid bit it was calibrated for June 20 market conditions not march 30 year end) is solid and unlikely to retrace from 9.37/share unless there is a sharp further determination of market conditions.

77% projected sales growth for the core portfolio is fantastic and wil protect existing NAV calculations and five some room for modest growth even in these makers conditions as the NAV has been conservatively calculated suing deflators wehre th least round was pre crash. Cleo enough to Sage’s request to “mark to market”.

Retain investors panicked by the decrease in observable NAV fo that 3 traded shares have assumed the same might occur within the core portfolio. institutional investors have if anything let the panic play out trimming a bit as black rock did and fully intending to top up at these lower prices when the panic subsides and no further price declines likely. maybe automated sales triggered by the initial decline accelerated the decline.

It’s grim out there but not half of a credible NAV/share grim. 77% per annum sales increases on top of this years 67% is fantastic growth portfolio that is not being affected at all by the changed market conditions and coming recession.

For my money Biden’s sucking it up to Saudis with a Presidential visit to Saud Arabia next month no less is a strong indication that geopolitics and economics will trump politics when it comes to oil prices. That means the Saudis on board to stabilize the oil price which probably means under 100 by end of July. That will feed through to the inflation index within 3 months afterwards as will the coming recessions.

War in the Ukraine is causing anxiety for sure but for my money will be contained within the Ukraine and not directly affect much the global economy. If thermonuclear war breaks out no investment is safe (not even US or UK government bonds) expect perhaps a cottage in the hills of New Zealand, Chile, Argentina or Canada which might hold their value.

Almost zero volume. SP did not move during hour long chat. . No investor listening I suppose. Was some good stuff in presentation.

We need a new EDISON report going over the anxiety of the valuations to really reassure investors valuations as presorted are solid and not about to make a retrace due to market conditions.

They did not do my direct question but did answer similar ones. Did say confidentiality garments mean they can’t say company by company what might reassure but can do in aggregate.

77% projected sales growth on average across the portfolio is fabulous and may well lead to a higher NAV and thus profit rather than a NAV retrace. they also said 80% of th e or e companies did not need to raise cash for 2 years so will not be forever into fund raising this year unless the offer is right.

I was a bit disappointed they said no immediate plans to buy own shares. Why participate in future funding rounds of core companies if they can buy the same at discounted prices by buying their own shares. Did say if realizations produce some additional investable cash they might.

they said they had as director bought shares and at a significantly higher price than now so we’re implying they bellied in the valuations and the future above what they bought for.

they repeated over and over they thought the valuations were fair value and would not overall retrace on future rounds. they showed they had discounted valuations to reflect current marekt conditions. they are not rigidly last round prices.
I was somewhat reassured and surprised the sp did not go up after the session.

Agree with all that and understand the GROW strategy.

Trouble is the market got spooked by the general sectorial retrace and the spectacular drop of the 3 traded shares (even though grow had sold off much at a post IPO profit). Not fair but the market can be temporarily not fair.

IN many ways it is the central weakness of a trust that specializes in private companies and is open to retail investors. The trust management and other funds who own shares in the underlying companies have a lot more information than the retail investors who own part of the trust. It is probably all ok under the bonnet but how can retail investors know for sure with so much confidentiality on key company level statistics (like yearly sales and runway lengths if not net profitable). Retail market will assume the worst in a crisis not the average or best case if poor information.

I agree with you on central bank rates unlikely to go above 3% in spite of inflation topping 10% -which historically would be considered stimulative. Wages are not going to get ahead of inflation and thus are not driving inflation. There will be a summer of discontent as workers who still have unions will try to keep the gap as small as possible. This is not a repeat of the 1970’s. Unions are much weaker and the cause of inflation is a temporary supply shock.

I am a big dove on oil prices and believe the high rice we have contains the fast growing seeds of a decline to mean and below. The dip to under 20 dollars in March 2020 had the seeds of the peak to 130 recently. It is the way oil works. When the price is low wells shut and when high they open. This is particular true for US shale that needs a certain strike price and can be ramped up quickly when they have it.

IN teh long run oil price in real money terms will have a declining mean. Solar energy in a large belt in the world can be profitable produced for 4.2 us cents per kilowatt hour -which works out to the energy equivalent of 65 dollars a barrel for oil. Onshore wind is starting to do the same for some other parts of the world including northern England. So in the long run OIl can not maintain a price above 65 or there will be market led (not green policy led) substitutions enough to bring down demand at the margin and thus the price. Only need to substitute a few % of global demand to crash the oil price.

Led by oil price declines we will soon have a declining inflation rate just as hopefully mile recessions kick in and push it down further. Plus what you say with all the technology pushing down prices and substituting expensive labour.

As early as September October we may see inflation start to come down led by oil and with that central banks all too eager to stop raising rates and maybe even start reducing them again before Christmas to keep the emerging recessions mild. Stocks will boom in that scenario -especially tech stock.

Do all write in questions for tomorrow and hopefully some of us can go to AGM too. I can’t as on holiday but great opportunity to ask questions.

I have been to the AGM and was a good opportunity. Much better than phoning CFO as he was polite with my questions but very guarded to say anything that is not simultaneously shared with all. So I could not get much beyond what was already in the statements -which was limited.

MOLTEN VENTURES PLC is pleased to announce that CEO Martin Davis and CFO Ben Wilkinson will provide a live presentation relating to the Company's full year results announced on 13 June via the Investor Meet Company platform on 28th Jun 2022 at 10:00am BST.

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I submitted a request for more info on the valuations particularly sales per company vs valuation points (give investors a good view is some recent valuations were exceptions to trend and by how much) and runway lengths as well as potential for companies to slow growth but pivot to net profit if they needed to in a tough market for new funds.

The more of us that pile in the better.

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Market does not believe valuations just given are solid and by a substantial %

This can be corrected in 3 ways:

1) on June 29 and agm and with a updated research report addressing specifically this anxiety with information the market starts to accept the valuations. One or two more post crash last round valuations showing values holding would help.

2) the market generally turns from risk off and accepts valuations s as sustainable. This will only come after inflation starts to drop and central banks can be more dovish in forward guidance.

3) grow put on the public realm the details of the valuations especially sales growth and last round valuations. Points so market reassured the valuations of key portfolio companies are not froth but in line with long term relationships to multiples sales growth. Some info o. runway lengths would help. Grow just saying trust us is destroying value.

3

Do think grow management made a mistake to give a very academic lecture in the annual results on why private equity is different when the market is clearly saying it is not.

If grow management really have the power of conviction they need to make a much better company by company case for why nav per company will not decline with market.

As a minimum sales rates over time and the last round and/or valuation points on the graph plus runway lengths if not net profitable. That transparency would reassure markets. The trust us approach is not working and they are destroying long term value by mindlessly tolerating excessive volatility. If they ever need to fund raise for themselves it will now be for less than they would have gotten whenever they do. Investors will not forget this dip so far below reported nav/share for a long time.

“There are currently no open short positions in Molten Ventures”

There was before middle of December though.

!) Trust pilot: Revenue increased 24% in 2021 from 2020, with revenue of US$131.4 million. NO wonder share has retraced under new environment.

2) UI Path: Sales growth good but not spectacular. Below GROW portfolio average of 65% As of January 31 2022, UiPath’s annualised renewal run-rate had grown 59% year on year

3) Cazoo. NO stated sales stats but I read were struggling in USA with growth there of 25%. Sales need to be flying to support IPO prose or anything near that in current market mood.

Of the 7 portfolio investments that contributed the bulk of the 363 m nav increase we know:

1) We can assume safely the massive NAV increase in Thought Machine is rock solid as page 37 "Post year-end, Thought Machine announced their Series D round raising US$160.0 million" - and I presume this is at the same or higher valuation. So post crash very recent funding rounds with no hint of retrace in fair value.

2) we can also safely assume our NAV for Aven with revenue growth of over 100% pa and a series D post March 31 2022 round at the same or increased NAV is 100% solid.

3) ledger I don't extract much info. 4m unit sales and 15% of worlds crypto assets using leger is a serious market share of a fast growing area. No sales growth stated.

4) Revolut no sales states but a fantastic market niche. Like apple pay and google pay. I don't have a problem with the 33bn valuation. If the company continues it will be a 500bn company in the medium term as sector huge and market share they have already significant. Competition about to be sure. not a lot of information in annual report.

5) Coach HUb; Round B which I assume was the basis of the valuation was in first half of year. No sales Info expect that sales double last year in first half of this.

6) AIr Call: series d funding round that is probably basis for year end fair value was in first half of year. No sales stats.

7) Form 3: In 2021, annual recurring revenue grew by 233% from 2020 levels. Fantastic. Series c funding round in first half of year appears to be basis of year end fair value.

So 2/7 have proven safe NAV's and if we accept the 2 as indicative of the other 5 maybe we are worrying unnecessarily. Trimming the fair value by around 25% -which is what I think they have done- is prudent. Was the haircut enough to mean we can have a NAV increase however small by September half yearly -Who knows but unlikely a big fair value decrease either.