Member Info for steph

Thanks for the link sang

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/14/uk-inflation-falls-amid-cost-of-living-crisis?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Will likely be until mid October where evidence of inflation peaking really solid. For now just energy prices retreating. Exorbitant forecasts of inflation of 15 to 20% based on much higher oil and gas prices than we are getting and will not happen. We have probably peaked already but some delay in non energy inflation coming down as it takes time for the effects of the energy peak to work through. No sign of wage price inflation exceeding goods in spite of low unemployment rates. Goldmund sacks predicts Eu energy gas crunch now largely solved by gas storage at new highs and that cost of EU gas will come down sharply.

War in Ukrainian sad but having less and less effect on global economy as west successfully uncouples from Russia energy exports. . The transition is painful and disruptive but no reason in medium term to have a big effect. China’s self imposed production reductions due to covid lockdowns coming to an end. Preliminary half yearly GROW results should help reassure market we don’t need a NAV haircut from here and confidence in our NAV will return.

not coming down as fast as expected

us tech index down 3%

Neil Woodford adviser Link Fund Solutions to pay redress

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0d52e442-32da-11ed-838f-27529d647dcb?shareToken=1e4052377f4df581bc9599406af1f1e1

China is a WTO member and that gives it considerable protection from the sorts of sanctions quickly posed on Russia who is not. So china’s helpful (from an inflation point of view) integration in the world economy not likely to reverse itself any time soon. There is a lot of trade between China and Taiwan without which Taiwan would be a lot poorer. It is not a N Korea situation. Just a personal guess but risk of an invasion quite low. China earns money off Taiwan as it is not matter how irritating. Taiwan would be a big drain on China if they invaded even without the effect of sanctions on the mainland economy. No way China could gain Taiwan with it’s existing economy and exports in tact.

I do think the market anxiety on GROW portfolio valuation downgrades overblown -Revolut yes though but that is an absorbable exception. I think the portfolio valuations were reasonably conservative overall in July 2022 year end.

I think wetherspons will do well. Down a bit due to heating costs. Cheap drinks and food good sector in a downturn.

I’m topping up on GROW. My biggest fear is a take over offer before we get to at least 6 quid. Someone can get these shares just too cheap right now. This dip to 3.2 is annoying but does not change much my 5 year target for this share which is significantly above the 11.8 recent peak. I expect 20 quid 3 to 4 years out.

In the long run it does not matter too much the % over or under NAV/share. Our fast growth ensures good returns from any starting point if one looks a few years ahead. From 3.61 nice starting point for sure.

But most of the inflation drivers this time round are commodity prices which, unlike wages, can not go up forever. They tend to return to a long term norm pretty fast (and overshot on the downside just as they overshot on the upside ) as production and consumption patterns adjust. The 90 dollars per barrel price we have now (and the spike to 130)is directly related to the 20 dollars a barrel we had in the middle of covid. That low price discouraged new extraction which impacted shale extraction particularly hard as the production cost is generally above 40. Several million barrels of mothballed shale are now being put on the market. US oil prices going down faster than Brent due to US shale availability. US gas prices much lower than EU same reason. .

An energy price cap for consumers will be cheaper than most predict however funded. As the energy price will come down naturally in due course.

I know it is a scary time to invest but that is when the most profit is made.

‘Conservative” government will simply buy a lower inflation rate by borrowing money to pay private citizens inflated energy bills.

Crazy but good for our SP. fear of interest rate rises on the back of high inflation the main reason for sector retrace. Borrowing more money will also add pressure on BOE to keep interest rates lowish or government debt becomes a destabilizing factor and their remit is to stabilize. Wacky world to be sure.

Personally I’d spread the inflation peak in energy over a 20 year period paying it back when energy prices dip below a mean as they surely will. Temporary borrowing either by the energy companies or some government backstop. Permanently borrowing public money to pay is silly.

Revolut chief Nikolay Storonsky: We can still be banking’s super app

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/73998c5e-3101-11ed-ba1d-df7e50c9736b?shareToken=b602b71d9462813e0cf40573d85745ce

Confident has made profit in 2021. That would transform confidence in 34bn valuation as would full UK banking license.

we have overrun analyst predictions as well. generally forecasts have been achieved on this one.

i expect a rally soon but when exactly is the big question. mid October when initial half yearly results can come out as good a guess as any.

Molten Ventures plc (LSE: GROW, Euronext Growth: GRW), a leading venture capital firm investing in and developing high growth digital technology businesses, is pleased to announce that it has agreed a new £150m net asset value ("NAV") facility with J.P. Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. ("JPM") and Silicon Valley Bank ("SVB") (the "Debt Facility").The Debt Facility comprises a £90m term loan and a revolving credit facility ("RCF") of up to £60m on three-and two-year tenors respectively, both with one-year extensions up to five years

https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/uk-ireland-venture-capital-trends

i agree it is a bargain, quite a bargain, and i am 100% invested

debt facility just announced good news. shows business as normal and jp Morgan gives grow a good bill of health.

i don’t understand sp. i think it is because if lack of information not what has really happened in the market, eminently correctable. 2/3rd nav yes maybe in current market but 1/3 is silly

in normal times not needing to raise funds is a sign of great strength for a start up unlisted tech.

in these markets maybe not sufficient.

grow did apply a haircut on core holdings to reflect market conditions. sp suggests not enough but maybe the panic will pass soon unless there is a structural reason like slower sales or less gross margin and no sign of that .

not exiting on ipo is turning out to have been a major error. market assuming much left in core portfolio needs a big nav downgrade from july.

i am disappointed grow management are saying commercial confidentiality prevents them from divulging more info. surely in the current market conditions more info needed. ask if need be. all very black box and we are getting hammered for it. market assuming the worst.

obviously many in the market do not trust grow management’s nav calculations. big time difference.

i do but my faith is being tested with this latest retrace. i wish they would address the jitters with more relevant information.

and a chunk of that is cash

the traded shares decline was full absorbed in last results. no further declines since

the implied discount to recently reported nav of core holdings is improbable.

management needs to do something the market does not trust the bits and drabs of info in the results

Whatever manamgent do they need to give some reassurance. Volitility of the magnitude will make it difficult for years to come to raise money at NAV/share again.

I think the business model of beig coy in a concerned marekt about the performance of individual shares (at the least sales growth, sales multiples at valuation points, margins and runway lengths at any current burn rate) is not working. A retail fund holding unlisted private companies needs to have on the table more informaon than they do or the marekt assumes the worst -which is what is happening to us. When GROW was private they no doubt gave this reassuring info to key corporate stakeholders -probaly still do.

They can signal confidence with director buys and some liimited corporate buy back if they have the force of their conviction. Updated third party analysis would be most welcome right now.

Where are the reassuring statements , company share buy back or or director buys?

Now is a really good time.

We can’t be worth only 1/3rd of NAV/share. We have cash, seed funds and early rounds in the portfolio none of which has dipped. Our traded shares dip is in the last NAV/share. We applied a haircut on many core holdings with management saying that was enough to avoid net NAV decreases this year.

I get a dip of 1/3rd below nav in jittery market but 2/3rds? Silly.