Member Info for steph

Ja thanks for the tip.
Generally on this board we are all get rich slowly people. There is a credible scenario where GROw if bought at these levels will also deliver 1000% and much more transparency on how. Even Sage might agree the following scenario is credible.,

1) we tread water for 2 years with NAV/shar growing slowly aligned with analyst predictions. The underlying core protfolio growth in sales slows as cash is conserved and runway lengths are extended. There are few later stage fundraising rounds and no IPO’s. OUr SP gradually recovers to Nav/share which will slowly increase to 10 and then 11.

2) 2 to 5 years out late stage fundraising rounds are back as with some IPO’s OUr NAv grows rapidly in the period in line with current analyst predictions or maybe a bit better as sales per company have been grwoing without much impact on upgrades of NAV. With compounding Nav/share goes up to 20 quid by year 5. Maybe more.

3) we start trading again in year 3 to 5 at a premium to trailing NAV/share again. With a stable market this rises to 30 to 40%.

4) our sp at year 5 is 28, no quite a 1000% return from today’s sp but close and might be 30.

no news to justify why we dropped us tech which we track went up.

some news yesterday that analyst projections of profit down s bit but that means they are still predicting nav increases not decreases. stand still nav/share would count as goon news right now at this sp.

Highly unusual but BOE has just reversed the reversal of its quantitative easing and is easing again.

Strange times. This is a good move and will in time stabilize markets. It helps the government towards a more affordable massive deficit.

2/3rds or half of nav (not below Half)

Our value even under stress is not less than the value per share if Uk government suddenly by stroke of a pen abolished all retail trusts holding unlisted shares and gave GRWO 6 months to auction without reserve price off all unlisted holdings.

Even that would be a good deal more than 3 quid me thinks. I’d expect about 2/3rds of half of nav.

This is a silly price based on misunderstanding the assets held. GRWO management need to come in with info, statements, director buys etc to smooth the volatility. Wht price GRWO pays for future funds depends on showing we are not a penny stock.

us tech modestly down

some small seller for us snd no strategic buying. low volumes do far

what an awful day
this sp assumes a 80 % downround of over 60% of our core portfolio. nothing justified that.

topped up. just a token amount

Graph core appears to have a runway length of less than 2 years at previous fast spend to expand. (Cash 350m and spend 185) Thus some slowing down of spend to conserve cash in this market and extend runway length to over 2 years a sensible bit of housekeeping. Competitors probably doing the same so will not lose potential market share to do so.

This wil repeat itself across the portfolio delaying the next funding round or IPO. As final rounds and IPO give us the most uplift on NAV we can expect more modest profits for the next period.

Graphcore has so much potential was logical in a good market to fund raise rather than pivot to profit too early. BIt strange sales only 5m.

My understanding of most of the portfolio as reported in 2019 finals is we have sector beating gross profit on sales. Thus pivoting to profit (or at least a much slower burn rate) relatively easy for most. Just slow down expansion and net profit comes. No so for Graph core yet but what a product. Maybe worth the longer wait.

Market pricing in labour victory now and luckily it is a very fiscally competent shadow cabinet. Cut in top rate will attract no new companies if market believes it will be abolished shortly. Just money down the drain at a time that we are running a record deficit.

treasury official as shadow chancellor no less. After that will probably be a long time until the Tories ever get elected nationally for a generation. They will need to regroup and either change their rules of selecting leaders or have a recruitment drive to bring in a younger more representative membership.

Finances will be so bad on labour getting elected they will need to play a long game if they are to make major changes. Tory party collapse may allow them that luxury.

One side effect of this chaos is public support for at least being in the single market will grow. After 6 years no trade agreements we could not have had as a EU member signed. It was an empty promise. Personally I like a skills based immigration policy and glad Boris and Truss support that. May was fixated on immigration limitation no matter the economic damage. Skilled immigration does wonders for our GDP and GDP per capita and UK attractive enough with a University base strong enough to go for skills based economic growth. Does not work if you can’t absorb the skilled workers. We can. .

Strange times to be sure.

Article reassuring for me. Government incompetence a given but does it hurt us substantially. Probably not. We can go up to 100% gdp for debt and nothing much will happen. Stupid to do that on tax cuts rather than long term infrastructure and University endowments but there we are.

I topped up. Talked myself into that. Got 3.06.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/26/isnt-going-truss-bust-why/

Our NAv per share was 555 March 31 2019, 574 September 30 2019 and 600 march 31 2020. that was all pre covid tech boom.

We ae now 9.29 as of march 31 2022. That is only 22% NAV/share growth over 2 years. Where is the froth? OUr portfolio overall has been going from strength to strength in that period. Massive 65% sales growth. Nothing except Cazoo seems stressed and that is a minor part of our portfolio.

As I’ve long asserted GROW are very conservative on valuations putting aside what they can for a rainy day. When GRWO say they don’t need to downgrade overall valuations believe them. We are about to get half yearly results that will make this share soar even without a market change. As Berenberg say we will get back to 9 quid within 12 months.

Good luck all.

Last time we were at a horrific dip was march 21 in the height of the covid panic. Whole global economy was thought to be grinding to a halt.

We dipped to 271 and our trailing NAV/share was 574 as reported in the half yearly results. We were 47% of trailing NAV.

Yet when finals came out our NAV was 600 for end of March and we quickly recovered to NAV/share

This time we are 302 agains a NAV/share of 929. Thus only 32% of trailing NAV/share.

Are we really in a much much worse situation than the beginning of COVID? I don’t think so. We have had this market for over half a year and no sign of down rounds or sales slowing down. Recent broker guidance is NAV/share within 12 months a fabulous 3x gain. I’m sure if we were about to get a NAV/share downgrade Beringberg would have held their fire.

It is just pure nerves and panic. Also many other shares affected but at 3x we are unusually good value.

Berenberg cuts Molten Ventures price target to 900 (1,050) pence - 'buy'

Amongst all the bad news the shaprly lower uk natural gas prices wil help in 2 ways. Firstly less inflation and wiht that a slowing of interst rate rises. . Seondly cost of pirce cap might be much less than 60 bn helping calm markets over goverment irresponsibility on spending.

Many tech up today including SMT. We will play catch up at some point soon. Just panic on misunderstood valuations. All will be clearer on half yearly results.

An inflationary tax give away before inflation starts to fall is not helping. Best we can hope for it it does not do too much additional damage to our SP gong forward. Risk of run on pound but I think that is still small. NOt a good time to not be printing money. GIlts bought by government without paying the coupon can make even the most irresponsible spending add up.

Here we go on what might be anouther bad day mood.

We have priced in at 1/3rd nav SP down rounds of 80% of 2/3rds our core portfolio. Just ridiculous and wildly improbable.

GROW itself can never suffer from illiquidity. We have many tims over the cash needed to run the trust yearly.

the portfolio can but GROW have stated that 80% plus of core has over 2 years of cash to run at current spend. No doubt if market for late rounds dried up they would slow growth and spending and conserve cash existing runway lengths until they needed a funding round significantly -well beyond the current market conditions.

Sage makes a good point that “mark to market” between funding rounds is helpful and GROW to an extent do this (25% haircut built in against last round valuations). GROW never do when valuations rising so NAV/share is in normal conditions a lagging indicator. It is always in theory higher in practice when results are announced -by up to a year.

If last rounds in current conditions were really predominantly down rounds than some more aggressive down grading than 25% maybe needed but there is no evidence of massive downrounds. 6% so far which is just 1/15. Might come to the weaker bits of the market but not necessarily to any of the GROW core who are well funded and growing fast. Even a 30% Down round potential is perfectly counter balanced by 65% per annum growth at same gross margins.

I think we have overshot on the downside due to a lack of understanding of the strength of our untraded shares. I think some shallow analysis has assumed the same % drop for many core companies as observed for our 3 traded shares. Holding them post IPO at the wrong moment has done some enormous reputational damage far beyond any actual losses.

More information on how our core is doing is needed. Can;t see the big secret about sales growth per portfolio share at least for the top 15. Ditto for valuation dates and related at th date assumed company value

https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/q3-2022-pitchbook-analyst-note-down-rounds-impacts-and-exit-opportunities