Member Info for Starchild

Part of me hopes an injunction will be attempted so this sword of Damocles is removed once and for all. In theory they have until spud date. However, a point of note is when the ship arrives, several million is due to Stena. (source https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/rdzqj8w ) Every day that goes by raises the question of underlying motive. Is the real reason is to hurt BPC financially? If Exxon were the explorer, would an injunction be threatened or sought? They would likely wait until spud result to lobby for a few years prior to production.

Although the BPC EIA report is in the public domain (source https://www.depp.gov.bs/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/BPC-Perseverance-Well-EIA-Final-Feb2020.pdf ), we are not party to the contractual sign-off. It may have included change of ship or drilling contractor clauses. Furthermore, it is unlikely the gov were not kept informed of the changes to ship as part of the force majeure discussions. If the gov objected, IceMax would not be sailing there today.

If an injunction is attempted, the court will be aware that a force majeure event threw a spanner in the works back in March. To fulfil its contractual obligations albeit delayed, BPC procured an equally highly reputable operator and state-of-the-art class ship. Due to circumstances at the time, BPC could not have been expected to use the same named ‘West Saturn’ ship. Equally, Seadrill were under no obligation to charge the same rates nor provide the same ship.

The court may question the timing and motives. Why wait so long? Why wait till a few days before spud when the IceMax is on its way and after BPC has just paid $2m to Stena? Was it out of alleged malice to hurt BPC by announcing the planned injunction bang in the middle of BPC’s final funding needs as an attempt to put off Bizzell or derail other sources of finance? Who are paying the legal fees? And more importantly, how on earth can anyone seriously argue a change of ship of equal class necessitates ‘public consultation?’ Why don’t they state, ‘we’re trying to stop the drill on a technicality to substantially damage BPC financially. If it were Exxon we wouldn’t dare.’

From the evidence I see, influenced by the conduct of some of the actors (including some of the clearly false assertions made in the allegedly manipulative documentary I commented on yesterday) I personally am not concerned about the injunction being granted. However, I am no expert on Bahamian law.

Lastly, To add another angle to this ongoing soap opera, if the BPC SP surges over the next few days, it could be because the ‘environmentalists’ and their advisors know the arguments are flawed and may buy 3%/10%, to become shareholder activists. Now, that would be interesting! I wonder what would happen if Greta Thunberg at the height of her fame in 2019, persuaded families worldwide to buy a chunk of Exxon and fight from within.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA

Star

Harry: Please stop bombarding a perfectly good BB with your posts. You have already 100+ in the last 2 days (16 hours a day) excluding today. I allege you do this to spook investor with 'smoke and mirrors' so that the SP will decease, so you can trade the stock. Please stop this. Enough is enough.Make your point. But don't bombard

Starchild

This is an analysis of the documentary entitled ‘Oil wars: Bahamas’. A huge link was posted here yesterday or search the title. My deep dive follows. [The number on the left is the approximate time stamp, summary of segment, with my observations in square brackets]

[00] How important oil is in the world and its many uses.

[10] How oil revenue has been transformational to developing nations.

[16] Complaints that Bahamas has got a bad deal from BPC on royalties blaming previous administrations….. [Untrue allegations that only foreigners benefit. Untrue comment, lots of money has been made by BPC shareholders and foreigners already. He should read this BB going back a few years!]

[19] More complaints about royalties apportioning

[21] Various allegations of ex-politicians having conflicts of interest

[26] ‘Was BPC the right choice?’ various allegations BPC avoided paying its licensing fees. [EA Approval wasn’t granted until Feb 2020!!!]

[29] an ‘exposure’ of the millions of pounds worth of shares foreigners and James Smith (ex-minister) has. [Totally misleading and FAKE news as they quoted a FALSE £2.53p share-price. Author should have used ‘pence’. It was implied the documentary investigators uncovered this, when in fact it is in the public domain in BPC RNSs]

[31] Oil rigs already in Bahamas. [Carscoffee: do they exist or is it a mashed up photo? If they do exist, even more reason to allow spud]

[32] Exxon Valdez disaster. Environmental fears for spud and a sermon by activists.

[37] A discussion about who pays if a disaster happens. Negligence = the negligent party. Accident/unforeseen…not BPC or Stena.

[40] Complaints in parliament about $750k license fees 2007-2012 being channelled via connected law firms to minister(s) [Frankly, I have no idea what they are talking about]

[44] Minister proposes instead of oil, Bahamas to open the doors to external green investors. [In the almost improbable scenario the gov reneged on the BPC deal (a) it would get sued, (b) no major investor would put their money there unless they were crazy, (c) the Gov may have trouble borrowing from the markets in case bond holders are next]

[45] Why was a deal done with BPC, when the Bahamas could have done it alone? [Because they didn’t. They did a deal with BPC. And because this is not the customary way countries exploit gas/oil. Shareholders take the risk in return for a percentage. ]

[48] BPC borrowed money to do so. [FAKE news. CLNs in return for shares.]

Summary: this POPULIST documentary was a cross between explaining some basics to 14 year olds and alleging political shenanigans. It sums up my belief the current objections by anti-BPCers, is more of a political and financial one, with environmental concerns being more of a ‘by the way.’ It was dumbed down for PUPULIST reasons twisting the facts. Some parts were informative, other parts SHAMEFUL.

DYOR. Enjoy Sunday.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk

Robbla: I stand corrected ....

EIA here: https://www.depp.gov.bs/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/BPC-Perseverance-Well-EIA-Final-Feb2020.pdf

Seadrill was named

IceMax is 6th generation https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/americas/241508/stena-drilling-wins-contract-for-well-in-bahamasste/

I still believe the lawyers are relying on technicalities rather than the spirit of the already approved EIA. Compounded by the force majeure event probably necessitating a replacement operator. It didn't help that Seadrill had or were having financial issues at the time compounded by Covid/PoO events.

Starchild

Robbla: I believe the Feb 2020 EIA did not name the specific ship. Yet implied consent was given subject to the ship and operator being experienced and suitable. When ordering a mega billion dollar IT system as a multinational, it is said no IT director has ever been sacked for ordering from IBM or Microsoft, even if it fails. Stena and its ships are reputable and state of the art.

Starchild

TitanAtlas: Thank you for sharing the article from the Tribune. My opinion on the quote below may sound sarcastic, but it is not meant to be....

'.......And Mr Smith yesterday argued that, by changing to the Stena IceMAX drill ship, BPCV had requested an alteration be made to its EA. This, the QC said, had brought the application within the remit of the newly-passed Environmental Planning and Protection Act and the stipulation that all changes be subject to further consultation.....'

1. Has anyone successfully sued British Airways for forcing a passenger to be upgraded to First Class?

2. Has anyone taken Hertz to court for upgrading them from a Toyota Camry to a Jaguar?

So why would would a Bahamas judge accept the ridiculous argument that the upgrade to Stena IceMax, requires consultation? A consultation of what?

I allege this is all being done out of malice to affect BPCs funding plans. Or some high profile persons in the campaign are getting involved so they can run for political office using populism.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

1. Had Stena agreed to a JV for shares @2.5p, $10m/£7.5m would have resulted in 300m shares next week. I believe most would have been OK with this, because…..

(a) It is unlikely Stena would dump, otherwise why not ask for cash?

(b) It would fund Percy-1 contingency and a chunk of ex-CERP dev. The latter somewhat irrelevant if Percy-1 was a success, yet provide a hedge, if not.
So why is yesterday’s RNS such a big deal to some? It’s a relatively small c120m shares for £3m, after spud.

2. Would there be the same uproar (by the few) as seen yesterday, if BPC has to use some of the $5m contingency? I suspect not. So why is yesterday’s RNS such a big deal by the few who give the illusion of being the many?

3. We’re now in the 2nd wave of a pandemic with fast moving developments. The BPC BoD and Stena acted. To protect the crew, ensure travel to/from/via countries under lockdown, facilitate strict self-isolation and to protect us, money has to be spent. Intercontinental private jets and regional ones are expensive. Labour costs increased. Someone has to pay the crew while self-isolating, the room cost and all meals. No one can seriously argue it is Stena’s responsibility, especially as the contract was negotiated during the 1st wave and almost certainly had force majeure/Covid clauses. A 15% increase minimises risk, ensures the drill, and most importantly protects life. This is a TINY sacrifice in the overall picture. So why is yesterday’s RNS such a big deal?

4. Some of the comments and personal attacks by the few, were totally outrageous. Anybody would have thought some dire event had occurred such as a giant squid had attempted to mate with the IceMax resulting in a broken rudder.

5. Refer to the Investec presentation. It’s analysts’ predict the possibility of 6p spud/39p success assuming ‘only’ 700m boe. Refer to page 9 and note 6p/39p is based on the WHOLE Bizzell CLN being capitalized. Source https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/read/64836057/bahamas-petroleum-company-investec-buy So again I ask, why is yesterday’s RNS such a big deal (or surprise) by the few who give the illusion of being the many?

6. Bizzell are not known to share dump. It is on the record from recent BoD interviews, they made substantial money from EU’s and SP’s previous companies. This implies they will only de-risk some of their holdings.

I believe the few who give the illusion of being the many, want to move the SP down for personal gain. If this is not the case, why bombard and disrupt when they can complain direct? https://www.bpcplc.com/contacts/grievances/

It is good the BoD have extended covid precautions. The initial CLN is small. There’s plenty of time for the SP to soar before the spud result. And even if Bizzell extended the CLN in January and de-risked all their shares, there will be plenty of appetite to share gobble.

IMHO. DYOR. Enjoy Saturday.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Harryoffdock: STOP your disruptive posts. No more bombarding today. I allege you do this when you have sold a chunk and try and talk the price down until you buy again. Smoke and mirrors.

Doesn't make difference to me as I'm all in for the spud result. But it does make difference to many others.

Starchild

RNS Highlights, reading between the lines:

1. Stena will unlikely JV , although they have until Nov 30 to decide. This means we are 10% better off in equity and asset level.

2. We still have no debt!

3. Alternative funding options in play such as reserve based lending (subject to CPR), farm-in etc

4. Makes perfect sense spending more to minimize Covid-19 risk

5. As I read it, it’s not like an institutional placing that 500m shares have been sold at a discount and will hit the market this morning! It will be after 28/12 when the SP will be high.

6. Not all the CLN will be used

7. The investor has agreed to continue, despite threatened injunction shenanigans.

8. Refer to my previous post, point 4.

IMHO. DYOR.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Q: When will we get updates via RNS? A: When the company is ready.

Why have we not received expected news? Because……

1. No news update is normally better than half a news update. Giving half the news raises even more questions why the remaining half has not been disclosed.

2. The company is not legally obliged to give a running commentary or blow-by-blow account.

3. AIM penny shares, especially energy companies are notoriously known to be used as play things by traders. BPC has no obligation to take part in these games by throwing a few toys around.

4. The threatened, yet meritless injunction against the Gov by environmental activists. Note: Even though most persons on this BB know the IceMax is heading to the Bahamas with some even tracking the vessel online, the ordinary armchair activist probably doesn’t, yet. An RNS stating ‘the drill-ship is heading to spud location, whoopy, whoppy, hurrah, hurrah’…would add fuel to the fire in a currently delicate situation. Every day that goes by between now and IceMax arriving at spud location, makes it harder to justify arguing for an injunction. The longer the plaintiffs wait, the more it can be argued there is an alleged malicious intent to hurt BPC. Let’s remember BPC is not Exxon that can delay a spud without major consequences. A judge will take this into account because an injunction is a temporary measure to initially review an overall complaint for possible merit and not to pre-judge the eventual outcome. The impact of getting this wrong will be huge.

5. Any news relating to Bahamas licensed acreage could also add fuel to the fire.

6. Even though the competent person’s report (CPR) which will be an audit of probable reserves will mainly deal with ex-CERP assets, it will very likely mention Bahamas’ acreage potential. This too can add fuel to the fire in a delicate situation.

7. BPC’s lawyers, Nomad and PR advisors need to give 3 yeses on the buzzer, before any news is released, to ensure we get to the final more easily.

So let’s ask the question again. When will we get updates via RNS? When the company is ready. This could be as early as 0700am today, next week or next month.

I am a long-term BPC shareholder since 2014 with millions of shares and place my profile link for newbies to access my openly shared research and opinions. I have full confidence the BPC BoD will do its very best for its shareholders, otherwise I would have sold-up long ago or waste time on this BB. I firmly believe BPC and its partners will also do what’s best for the environment. And I remain patient for news with the suggestion everyone else does.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA. Have a great day.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Jim1556: Good spot

That was the cheeky Stena point I wanted to post from earlier. This morning there were 2 IceMax-es…a real one heading to Bahamas marinetraffic.com and a virtual one heading to Malta. https://www.myshiptracking.com/?mmsi=235092459 She is certainly heading west now.

I suspect IceMax left in the middle of the night when Europe was asleep, Bahamas activists about to go to bed, and most of the rainbow warrior crew asleep…………………with insider knowledge that the rainbow warrior uses the myshiptracking system on board and didn't want activism hassle near port. Smoke and mirrors, spy stuff. Love it. Or it could just have been a coincidence due to an admin error somewhere.

Starchild

xxxAccountant: welcome to the BPC BB. Click on my name and it will point you to various research material, links and other posts.

Starchild

Carscoffee: sweepstake was a series of BB responses over 2 days, so hard to summarise. From memory it ranged for 4p-50p!

Investec analysts suggested 6p possible at spud. However I don't think it takes into account:
1. Possible ex-CERP 'hot' news flow which reflects the first £20m and first 0.6p of BPC's market cap and SP today.

2. What we call the 'spud' was 15/12/20 plus a few days, possibly until the first results. We won't get any results until probably Feb because of 'tight' confidentiality as requested by the Gov. This gives even more time for interest in BPC which could affect the SP.

3. If Rainbow Warrior pulls off a stunt and it gets in mainstream media....perhaps PIs who have never heard of BPC may have a flutter.

IMHO. DYOR.

Starchild

Prize for best post of the day, week, month, year goes to GarryGraham 20:35 25/11/20. It will go down in legend.

Prize for the most misinformed and legally ridiculous post, yet bestowed the greatest complement I have ever received of my alleged power and influence to the BPC share-price, goes to the commentator who wrote………. ‘Maybe someone should report the author [of the letter] or instigators to the FCA for market manipulation or attempted at least, if they mentioned their plans and told anyone and that anyone made money ???? well, having a financial colonoscopy will definitely focus the mind :)…..’

The affect: The BPC SP went up. Why? The conspiracy theory is simple. ‘Starchild’s open letter was so powerful, he could move the SP, and he knew it. Assuming: (1) a fellow BB member emailed it to the media (2) it was published (3) the editor was in on the deal and timed it before the markets closed, which gave Starchild and his wicked accomplices time to take out CFD derivatives.’

Facts and opinion
1. In good faith I wrote an open letter on a SUNDAY inviting others to submit it. It was discussed on and off earlier in the week. No one objected nor provided opinions on its merits. Not even derogatory ones from the usual suspects.
2. I am aware of TWO persons that submitted it to the media. I did not.
3. My letter was not published in full. It was quoted from. The article included comments from others.
4. It created debate in the Bahamas which was the aim. Not to fan flames.
5. The other side went on the defensive.
6. In the short term, the only thing that matters is a judge’s opinion IF IF IF an injunction is attempted.
7. A BPC shareholder’s opinion (a separate entity to BPC) is now on the record.
8. I have full confidence in the legal system and its judiciary. The arguments being: they left it far too late, their case is flimsy, EA approved, ocean currents head to Florida, Stena safely does drilling worldwide on state of the art ships. And, they timed the case with the full knowledge BPC is NOT Exxon and as such cannot just delay a drill on a whim unless fully compensated by the Gov. It’s like asking an Olympic athlete about to run the 100m final, to come back tomorrow or in 4 years’ time.

This BB
I welcome debate but not personal insults. A FEW posters (8) some who only relatively recently started commenting here, wrote MANY deeply offensive posts in the last 24 hours. I suspect one is an EA activist.
Every post I have written is honest and in good faith. So was my letter. For the reasons above I do not regret writing it whatsoever. However, I very much regret Smalltrader who was also clearly acting in good faith, getting caught up.

I suggest the matter is now closed and instead of me, we concentrate on BPC. Especially now that the IceMax has sailed. Stena has done something very cheeky, which I will post about later today.

GLA. Have good day.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/

Inkunzi: Thanks for the heads-up that my letter made it to press. http://www.tribune242.com/news/2020/nov/24/oil-opponents-deny-malice-motivation/ . And thanks to the folks here who sent it to the media.

Of the 40,000 that signed the petition, possibly no more than 20,000 are Bahamian connected, this leaves 380,000 that did not. It is to these folks my letter was aimed at, so they do not get tricked.

Although I did not allege malicious intent against named individuals, it is interesting that opponents IMMEDIATELY went on the defensive, as quoted in the article. Perhaps they fear a damages claim.

I see no sense whatsoever to stop an already Gov approved, scheduled, and about to begin one-off exploration well, to fulfil BPC’s contractual obligations, unless there are hidden agendas. They had 10 years to deal with the matter, did not, and timed very questionable objections at the very last moment to allegedly financially harm BPC and its shareholders.

I do not believe my letter was counter-productive. Even if another 10,000 sign the petition as a result, many tens of thousands may eventually share my ‘common-sense’ view-point. The letter was carefully structured to create debate which it has, while giving my, perhaps our side of the story as an ordinary shareholder. One of many PIs who want the spud to happen, which could be a win-win for everyone including the whole Bahamian nation.

Finally for the record, (a) some of the comments attributed to me were not mine as can be seen by the original posted here a few days ago. (b) I did not contact the media. I left it to fellow BB members to do so, if they wished. (c) IF IF IF an injunction is attempted, I believe my letter is helpful.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Sources
https://www.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil
Google finance

Starchild

Robbla:

1. Excellent observation about the weather. see https://www.windy.com/ for waves/wind/storms over next few days. It's not good around Canaries for next few days.

2. I agree people can be removed from a virtual presentation, however whereas a heckler can shout and scream (often inaudibly) for a few seconds before being escorted away, (or in China, shot), any typed text will likely be read in real time on the meeting's virtual screen.

3. Albeit extremely rude, I just read probably the best 'put-down' I have read in my life. The poster's name begins with 'Za'

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laallee: I agree with your analogy to a degree, however unlike your wife's cooking 'foreplay', I am sure no favours of an intimate nature are being implied by EU and SP.

Postponed Proactive presentation: In my view this makes sense as activists will likely join on mass and disrupt the virtual presentation with live negative and derogatory questions, on the right side of the screen. If it was a physical meeting, hecklers would be physically removed under trespassing laws, if causing disruption.

IceMax: Either it's doing one more test/safety drill....or making a run for it to northern Cuba to get a head-start on Rainbow warrior, 2 days ahead of schedule.

Fun times!

https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
Starchild

A few see spud date as being the end date of profit taking for those not wishing to take the risk of a duster. Why? Because they haven't done their homework. The Percy-1 drill is tight hole which means no results until the end,.... a few weeks down the line.

IMHO Plenty of time to sell and re-risk after spud, for those that wish to de-risk some or all of their BPC holdings. As for comments IIs will sell everything pre-spud is not a foregone conclusion. Pension funds such as Mersey do hold a portion of high risk shares in their portfolio. and so do other IIs

DYOR

Starchild.