Member Info for Starchild

investo: good question. It could result in a 'special divi' as the BoD would also get paid. However I would think and hope a chunk will be retained to:

1. expedite ex-CERP dev
2. do all the biz for Uruguay exploration 2d/3d
3. Buy other nearby assets (small oilers nearby) which have a potential good ROI

Starchild

Carscoffee: If BPC has a PR agency I would suggest they use social media to spread the word via short impact statements. I don’t think it makes a difference now prior to possible injunction attempt but will make people think between a successful spud and production. [my calculations also on the back of a fag packet at the end] Something like…..

Impact statement example 1: ‘If only 25% of the potential 28 Billion barrels of oil licensed in Bahamian waters can be commercially extracted, this represents $85 billion, and more than $200,000 for every Bahamian man, woman and child. There is only one other sovereign wealth fund of similar size per capita: Norway’s.’

Impact statement example 2: ‘The Bahamian nation could enjoy the highest GDP per capital in the world…..bla bla’

[My calculations are based on recent BPC presentations: $40 PoO, 700m boe = $5B Gov royalties. 7B boe = $50B Gov royalties. If PoO $50 (at 50-50), equals another $5 x 7B = $35B. Total $85B royalties collected over 20-30 years. Divide by 400,000 Bahamians equals $212,500 EACH. ]

Starchild
ps...as suggested by plutus, I will hold a news conference tonight and wear my best frock for impact.

Carscoffee: see https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/912143/bahamas-petroleum-company---countdown-has-begun-912143.html/long from analyst Dr Zac Phillips. 25% recoverable on 28B prospect is 7B boe.

if only 1.5B boe at $40 PoO, it could pay off the entire $10B Bahamas Gov national debt over the life of the drills. If 7B boe, the mind boggles

Starchild

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Carscoffee: I suggest the upside of 28B does includes unrecoverable oil . If you refer to Proactive Feb presentation/deep dive from Feb 2020 it lists these totals.

BTW, with you connections to Bahamas, if undertaking an injunction is it done by stealth, and the result announced after the event, or is notice given to the Gov (possibly BPC)?

Are these hearings listed?

Must dash to do an S cubed prior to a video meeting soon. (The last 'S' being 'shower')

Starchild

Carscoffee: There are three points you raise in your post.

1. It has been stated a successful Percy-1 spud will de-risk the whole 'B' structure. I don't think it will de-risk all the remaining licensed BPC acreage. However, it is likely a lot of interest will be generated and this will be reflected in the SP at the time on the possibility 'there's more gold in dem hills'. especially southern licenses.

2. In terms of potential value, please refer to the Investec presentation. It’s analysts’ predict the possibility of 6p spud/39p success assuming ‘only’ 700m boe. Refer to page 9 and note 6p/39p is based on the Bizzell CLN being capitalized. Source https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/read/64836057/bahamas-petroleum-company-investec-buy So based on the STOIPP 28B assuming say 4B recovered, using Investec modelling at around $50 PoO this represents an extrapolated NPV which I haven't got time this morning to breakdown. (1. Using Investec formula multiply 700m boe (in units of 39p) x say 4B barrels. 2. multiply the new SP x 4.4 billion shares = market cap. )

3. How much will Gov earn? in October presentation, just from the 'B' structure at 700mboe @ $40 = $5B NPV10. However royalties today (max 25%) apparently are being discussed (source Bahamas newspaper). It appear BPC have offered to go 50-50 after all extractions costs paid, vs starting to pay on the first $1, starting at 12.5%.

hope this helps. Sorry haven't had time to provide sources other than Investec analysis document.

Starchild

Yesterday’s RNS adds further evidence to my theory that if Percy-1 is a duster we are FULLY hedged, subject to patience. Assumptions: ex-CERP assets produce what is projected and PoO is $50 or more.

Ex-CERP potential
If Percy-1 is a duster, the SP will likely temporary plummet to sub 1p, however based on yesterday’s CPR summary and recent projections of 2500 boe/d from ex-CERP assets, I believe BPC’s market cap could reach £220m as discussed by analysts who re-iterated 21.6p/c£220m mCap in March 2020. (Source https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/916212/vsa-capital-market-movers---columbus-energy-resources-916212.html )

Assuming 4.4 billion shares, this equates to 5p SP. For a researched deep dive please refer to my 04:31am 30/10 post entitled… ‘BPC 4p-5p per share end 2021 if Percy-1 is a duster? ‘Dangerous’ ‘crackpot’ idea, or possible?’

In defence of Leo Koot (CEO) and the CERP BoD who lost their jobs as part of the BPC merger, it must be acknowledged eyebrows were raised at the time. Why merge with BPC, a one-trick pony undertaking a wild cat drill? There are two main justifications:

1. This pony was potentially worth billions. Watch between 4-6 min timestamp of Leo’s interview discussing what he saw while doing the due dili. He was very excited. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1LoJi9l-k4w

2. Due to bad luck including Covid, CERP were loss-making, yet as a bi-product of Percy-1 funding, BPC would have the capital to develop ex-CERP assets even if Percy-1 was a duster. Things got so bad, CERP didn’t have the funds to maintain existing wells, let alone develop hot prospects.

Percy-1 Farm-in vs Farm-out
1. It is great news the BoD believes a farm-out will be on the cards in March/April 2021 if Percy-1 is hot. I believe an MOU has been struck with an oil major dependant on the size of the discovery. This could start a bidding war, with the BoD’s phones ringing off the hook.

2. A farm-in is before an exploration drill is spudded. The rate is usually 50-100% of back-costs plus the cost of the exploration project. BPC has c$130m back-costs including 1Q 2021.

3. A farm-out is after the target has been generally de-risked and following a certified CPR. The amount paid upfront is then based on a percentage of…..(a) the NPV of the find ( recent presentations estimate at 700mboe and $40 PoO, this is $2.5B at NPV10), (b) all back-costs, (c) all future costs, (d) with BPC retaining a 25-50% and doing very little work other than to collect revenue and pay us dividends. In BPC’s case they could go on an M&A shopping spree buying or merging with regional small oil companies. We voted to give the BoD permission to issue 10B shares. At 25p-£1 I have no issue!

Summary of above: ‘heads’ is a massive win. ‘Tails’ we still keep our money and potentially make a small win in future. It’s a 3 headed coin with a 33% chance of ‘heads’.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

icemax you got it in 1! I allege this is totally unethical on HL's part. They state a fixed fee for trades depending on what volume an execution-only investor subscribes to. I think its cheap on their part to skim on the side. A bit like owning a gourmet restaurant and the manager rummages through the left over meat of the night to sell to kebab shops.

Starchild

icemax/hallowed: if the trades are quite small, large share-dealing platforms such as Hargreaves offset and keep the difference. It is not MMs. I know this because a few weeks ago I bought some more BPC (small amount) to round up to nearest million shares and it didn't show up as a trade on 2nd LVL console or transactions list. Ever. Even London stock exchange downloadable spreadsheet of ALL transactions didn't show this.

I think this is a bit naughty on their part.

Starchild.

Ps...Egg: Thanks for your response earlier on CERP SP if still stand-alone company. See my deep-dive post tomorrow morning. (your middle of the night!)

Eggchaser and other ex-CERP LTHs: What is your best guess estimate on CERP SP, had it still been a standalone company? Assumptions:

1. It had no debt (or CLNs in play)
2. We got the same RNS as today
3. Access to funding of a few million to develop cerp assets without CLNs using RBL or free cash reserves of say, $5m
4. PoO at least $45/b

Market cap at merger with BPC was c£20m. Peak 14 months ago c£50m. What could it be eod today? Best guesses?

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Egg: thanks. However I take full responsibility for the 2 fellow and respected posters who sent my article. I still believe my letter was constructive (to give the view-point from an ordinary shareholder), however I am aware 9 people disagree, some quite 'violently'.

Back to today, brill RNS!

Starchild

READ RNS AGAIN FOLKS!...... It states Percy-1 farm-out possible March/April 2021 (assuming successful spud). Dates have never been stated before other than SP and EU's 'phones will be ringing off the hook.' I believe farm-out discussions have taken place already with an MOU (based on the size of the find) subject to the 2nd CPR (my point 2 below)...

1. '....Farm-out options or similar transactions: Should, after completion of Perseverance #1, BPC consider diluting its interest in its project in The Bahamas then, in the March / April 2021 timeframe, a successful farm-out transaction would likely be of an amount sufficiently large to fund the anticipated Trinidad and Tobago and Suriname work program. Alternatively, exploration success in The Bahamas would likely provide the Company with considerable excess funding capacity.'''

2. 'It is also expected that, in the event of a discovery arising from the Perseverance #1 well in The Bahamas (which is on schedule to spud prior to the end of 2020 and take between 45-60 days to drill), a separate CPR exercise will be undertaken in respect of the Company's licences in The Bahamas.'

I'm very happy!

Starchild

Eggchaser1: Today's RNS exceeded my expectations. This is our hedge in the event Percy-1 is a duster, with ex-CERP capital needs likely being self funded if Percy-1 under-budget and/or reserve based lending. Neither dilutes shares.

Starchild

Onlybpc: good find. Thanks. The article is totally flawed in the assertions made. The argument being made, is even if the Gov can earn a few billion in royalties, it is less than what will be lost in the event of an oil spill.

My questions:
1. Why are planes allowed to fly to/from/over the Bahamas? They could crash.

2. Why are oil tankers allowed to travel to/from and through the Bahamas? They could sink.

3. Why do most countries in the world take the risk to harvest oil/gas? Because they make money in royalties and because the world needs oil and gas.

4. And finally, what's stopping another special interest group concerned about over-fishing or cruelty to lobsters and conch not taking an injunction to stop these? And what about another special interest group stopping diving (and yachts) by injunction to protect Bahamas' coral reefs?

Bottom line: Let common sense prevail and work together.

Starchild

Amongst all the noise on this BB yesterday, you may have missed the news article posted and commented on….’Opposition leader: I support “environmentally friendly” oil drilling.’ I recommend you read it https://ewnews.com/opposition-leader-i-support-environmentally-friendly-oil-drilling

This is significant because the current government granted BPC environmental approval to drill and the opposition party supports oil drilling. My thoughts:

1. According to the article, ‘….Fred Smith, QC, who assured Eyewitness News yesterday that those filings will be made ahead of the scheduled [spud] start date’.

2. I allege every day that goes by nearer to spud date that this threatened injunction is delayed, is potentially evidence it is timed to hurt BPC financially. Activists had several years to fight their cause but didn’t. They could have done so soon after the May RNS announcing Stena as the drill-partner but didn’t. IF IF IF an injunction is attempted, I believe the Bahamas court will take this ‘behaviour’ and last minute strategic ‘play’ into account.

3. Mr Smith QC’s main argument appears to be the change of drill ship, so that based on the current law, he asserts this requires a public consultation. (which I read and allege means, ‘let’s delay the drill to cause BPC as much grief and financial pain as possible as they are small compared to Exxon’)

4. In the extremely unlikely, minuscule chance the court orders a delay to spud, this decision can only be based on legal technicalities based on the interpretation of existing laws. Courts do not generally judge on political decisions, such as whether the previous or current Govs were right to support oil drilling.

5. Failing the above, there is a trump card. The main parties appear to fully support the spud and the eventual exploitation of oil, subject to the usual caveats such as environment/safety etc etc. If the upper and lower houses are whipped by their parties to do so, an emergency amendment to the law can be passed. Which will mean the spud can happen. {The term ‘whipped’ is based on the British HP political term, not acts of violence)

I am not worried if an injunction is attempted. However that’s just my opinion and am no expert on Bahamas politics or how their laws are ascended into law. DYOR.

GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

1. Is this the extent of the Greenpeace Rainbow Warrior protest? Or was someone taking the Mick? https://m.facebook.com/BPresslive/photos/a.901315739982182/3493883744058689/?type=3&source=48

2. Over the last few days I have been accused of (a) breaking insider trading rules by writing an open letter to the media that was so powerful it could move the share-price, (b) apparently having ‘disciples’ on this BB, and (c) the use of mind control techniques channelled through my posts……. Damn. Now the cat is out of the bag, I command and require as a sign of unquestionable OBEDIENCE and loyalty to me that all my disciples shave their heads from today UFN and press the ‘recommend’ button on this post. Including newbies who have never posted before.

Have a blessed day. Amen

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

offerman: thanks for background. Guys, what do you think this would have done to CERP SP percentage rise, if still stand alone co?

Sol633: directors of a PLC can't dump shares using insider information. They must report every buy/sell. In fact they bought more shares in recent II placing.

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Mark@1973: Thanks....this is where we BPC-ers need to listen to Ex CERP LTHs.

The extra shares are a small bonus in built in the merger as voted. It was not a forgone conclusion T+T gov via Heritage would sign the deal off. We now have 10 years of approx 40% of $3m (I think) based on +/- PoO coming into the coffers. The amount is irrelevant if Percy-1 is a success, but can hedge our bet if it is not.

Starchild

TCGLOVER: thanks. Good RNS. 'If it was CERP, SP would have gone up'.

Also, markets already knew about the share awards based on this news for months. Furthermore, the persons who got the shares will not share dump as they are senior BPC execs

Starchild

The RNS is good because it confirms the deal with Trinidad and Tobago has been extended at the same terms for another 10 years via the state owned energy company heritage. 40% of our current revenue comes from this.

The extra shares were agreed as part of the cerp merger.

Perhaps LTH ex-Cerp holders can provide more background.

Starchild

The Bahamas Bar Association's code of conduct is enshrined in law. A Barrister cannot bring a meritless claim otherwise S/he could risk their professional license to practice. Furthermore there are guidelines on 'self-advertising', politics, social causes and impartiality.

Refer to http://laws.bahamas.gov.bs/cms/images/LEGISLATION/SUBORDINATE/1981/1981-0022/BahamasBarCodeofProfessionalConductRegulations_1.pdf (I believe this is the latest version)

I am not alleging whatsoever, Mr Fred Smith QC has done anything contrary to the Bar's code of conduct.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/