Member Info for Starchild

CoMan: In your experience working on or managing drill ship projects, what is the maximum stint a crew can do onboard?

Most of the crew appear to be based in the UK. If Bahamas/Texas/Cuba stop travel from UK due to the new Covid-19 strain, what would you do if you were the boss? In theory could the exploration period be extended to ensure the existing crew got a day off every week, to rest them from 12 hours on 12 hours off 7 days a week?

All: The AG wants to re-negotiate the oil royalty deal. Source https://ewnews.com/. My opinions:

1. It implies the AG is almost ignoring the chance of a judicial review complaint being heard in the court, let alone an injunction to stop drilling Percy-1. To him it appears to be a non-event. I believe this is positive.

2. It takes all parties in a contract to agree to re-negotiate terms, unless exceptions are embedded in an agreement. The gov has to be careful if it attempts unilateral action as it could be appealed all the way to the Privy Council in London. Worse is if the Gov is seen to moving goal posts, current and future investors may question whether they will do so again for large infrastructure projects such as building a new airport, or similar.

3. BPC will have leverage assuming the royalty apportioning is water-tight. For example, swap adjacent to Florida acreage for more acreage elsewhere in the south. And other 'goodies.'

GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Edgar: I respectfully disagree with your comment.... 'Shocking that they wont be given a court date. That is an emergency application for judicial review and interim relief.'

I could instruct solicitors to propose a judicial review to avoid a hard-brexit also proposing the UK gov are injuncted to allow a hard Brexit until my case is heard.

1. I would be laughed at.
2. The court would likely ignore me.
3. Even if it was heard, and even if I won (joke!) , the gov would appeal in 30 seconds

I believe Mr Smith QC's clients' case is actually worse than the above analogy. Because they had the several years to act (Ok at least since EIA approval was officially granted in Feb) to act, but didn't. If there was a hanging planned tomorrow, judges in their PJ's may listen to a case as it is a real emergency. But this one? I think not. End of.

Starchild

Latest Smith QC complaint http://www.tribune242.com/news/2020/dec/21/oil-opponents-now-seeking-xmas-miracle/

1. I guess he didn't read this morning's RNS

2. His article appears to be setting the stage and bracing his clients and followers for a failure

Starchild

TRP-BPC: I think your rocket is brill. As its XMAS, should it not have a fairy on the top? (and next week 2021?)!!!

CoMan: thanks for the response

I believe, the reason SP hasn't soared YET, is traders wish to see the sell trading pattern of the hedge fund that has 375m shares. It is possible some large delayed trades will show up in the next 30 mins and at eod. Traders want to suss these out. However I see no evidence of share dumping (Trafalgar style), since the funding agreement RNS of 14/12. They could have forward sold since 14/12, even though they didn't physically own shares until 17/12

IMO. DYOR
Starchild

Spud was at 06:30 am local (11:30am GMT) yesterday 20/12/20. This means the new investor with 375m shares since 17/12 has until eod Thursday 18 Feb (60 days) to dispose of their shares to guarantee a BPC indemnity of 2.3p minimum, should they in fact wish to do so in full. 350m shares is nothing.

In my opinion it is unlikely any spud result will be released prior to this date unless the news is good. However if we don't hear anything until Fri 19 Feb or Mon 22 Feb, it doesn't automatically mean the news is bad.

After 10 years we are on the home straight. There is one TINY obstacle: confirmation the court hearing will either not go ahead, be postponed till after spud or if the case is heard between now and eod Wednesday has been REJECTED by the court.

CoMan: tech question...In your opinion, approx how many days does it take between end of final drill samples being extracted and IceMax sailing away?

GLA
Starchild

Robbla: Yesterday’s radio interview with the 2 ministers was an excellent find. Thanks. Watch 1hr:28m:30s till end. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JJ8tOBs-ra4

A quick summary using my interpretation rather than quotes……
1. BPC contract is absolutely watertight

2. Only possible way to get out of the contract is to nationalise oil. If the Gov did this: (a) they would face a huge damages claim (b) no mega company will ever want to invest in the Bahamas in case they’re next (c) The USA gov will consider the Bahamas Gov to be on-par with a banana republic.

3. There are ‘other’ reasons which will apparently come out soon. However the minister emphasised he does not doubt anyone’s integrity. (a) I see this as political games rather than commercial dodgy goings on. (b) I believe the current administration do not like the fact a sitting opposition Senator is head of BPC’s legal (c) a previous PM’s law firm advised BPC many years ago, before he became PM and (d) an ex-minister sits on BPC’s board.

4. Very little was said about the exploration well/environment. The fact 1-3 above was discussed on radio implies an assumption there is no serious legal threat to spud, and if oil is found, the party in power is getting ready to win political brownie pre-election points with the opposition rather than reneging on its WATERTIGHT contractual obligations with BPC.

Re Oil Man Jim’s latest anti-BPC comments. My observations:

1. The first words American babies say is ‘mama’ or ‘dada.’ I imagine OMJ’s first words were, ‘when I grow up, I want to short BPC shares using CFD derivatives’

2. There are three fundamental flaws in his argument that the recent capital raise is death spiral financing: (a) there’s only 375m shares involved, of which I estimate c25m+ have already been sold. (b) traders know this. Putting aside the court case (IF IF IF it happens in the next 3 days), and IF the SP from now until before the spud result middle of Feb goes anywhere near 2.3p, it will be gobbled up. (c) OMJ clearly did not read the RNS properly and implied the BoD are idjuts. Had they drafted the deal with no end date for underwriting a minimum 15% return (ie, an average 2.3p or more), OMJ could have a rationale argument the investor would sit on the shares and either make a fortune or be guaranteed 2.3p if a duster. This is not the case as they have a maximum 60 days after spud. On day 61, they can’t do an Oliver Twist and come back for more.

All above: IMHO. DYOR. Have a great day. Exciting times. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Rickierich: I believe the 39p figure is based on the SP a few days after spud result (probably Feb 19+).

Refer to my post on 11/11..... 'If we find oil....more than £1 a share?'......on my opinion and rationale on potential SP down the road of a successful discovery.

Also refer to the post on 23/11....'BPC future dividends on 1m shares possibly £37k-80k per year???'.....

The above assumptions were no farm-out, 4b shares in play and a 1 billion barrel discovery across BPC assets.

All IMHO. DYOR.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

J.R.Ewing1: I assume you live in Dallas. To your question what’s happening now, see post for everyone below. To your question on share-price, refer to two analysts opinions:

1. Investec Bank analysts’ presentation. They predict the possibility of 39p share price on success assuming ‘only’ 700m boe. Refer to page 9 and note 39p is based on 4.4b shares. (currently there are 4.5b) Source https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/read/64836057/bahamas-petroleum-company-investec-buy This is based on no farm-out with a major oil company such as Exxon after discovery.

2. The Auctus research report https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/12/08133633/Auctus-BPC_IOC_08.12.2020.01.pdf has a lower figure of c25p, based on BPC doing a farm-out. However it did not include the upfront payment BPC would receive, $100m-$500m.

Spud today?
The IceMax is out tracking of range, however it was scheduled to arrive at the Percy-1 spud location yesterday at 1100am. According to CoMan, if it arrived Saturday morning it should be able to spud sometime today or early Monday.

The seabed is approx. 550m below the ship’s floor. The IceMax is 228m long, so to get visual perspective the ocean depth is around 2.5 times the length of the ship. I believe this is not particularly deep in offshore drilling.

The date and time of spud is of legal and practical significance. English courts considered the actual spud time is the moment ‘drilling commenced.’ Source https://www.offshore-mag.com/drilling-completion/article/16754699/spudding-a-well-when-does-drilling-commence . (In my words: the moment a marriage is consummated and 40 weeks later, the moment of the resulting baby’s birth if the couple were careless)

For BPC, it has a practical significance as 60 days after Percy-1 spud is the date the hedge fund investor no longer has the right to claim a shortfall in the event it sells at an average of less than 2.3p for its 375m shares. Furthermore, we are not party to the actual agreement with the gov. Despite extending the contract until the summer 2021, although probably totally irrelevant, it could be argued that BPC fulfilled its original obligation to drill an exploration well in 2020 regardless.

We will likely get an RNS Monday or Tuesday, however if delayed until Thursday, it could be to avoid adding fuel to the protesters’ fire, prior to the court’s Christmas recess.

Finally on the subject of Christmas, If you wish to participate in the IceMax crew Christmas raffle with a gift, refer to my recent posts by clicking my name below. It’s very simple to do logistically and will only take 10 mins. Your gift doesn’t have to arrive by Christmas, only proof it has been ordered by emailing Stena the confirmation. The crew will really appreciate it. If you don’t wish to participate, that’s fine.

Have a great Sunday.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

I like numbers.............

‘6’ is the number of hours the IceMax will arrive since I posted this. At 1100am UTC/GMT (6am Local). Click on https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:199104/mmsi:235092459/imo:9517575/vessel:STENA_ICEMAX , then click on map on the right. It states 1100am time and destination PERSEV-1!!!

‘4’ is the approx percentage of the total US congress who wrote to the PM asking AGAIN for the drill to be stopped. 17 members did so. Source https://ewnews.com/us-members-of-congress-urge-govt-to-reconsider-bpc-oil-deal

’96’ is the approx percentage that didn’t. 518 members did not support the petition, knowing full well the Bahamian people have the right to oil wealth in their waters and because the USA and its majors are global leaders in doing so worldwide.

‘7’ is the number in pence the SP could reach from ex-CERP asset potential alone, excluding Percy-1. (source: Auctus research report page 18 https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/12/08133633/Auctus-BPC_IOC_08.12.2020.01.pdf ). As such we appear to be FULLY HEDGED (and more!) in the event of a Percy-1 duster. Subject to patience.

‘6’ is the number of days until Christmas. If you wish to participate in the IceMax crew Christmas raffle with a gift, refer to my recent posts by clicking link below. It’s very simple to do logistically and will take 10 mins. Your gift doesn’t have to arrive by Christmas, only proof it has been ordered. The crew will really appreciate it. If you don’t wish to participate, that’s fine.

Have a great Saturday.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Harry: 'Do you think they have it on the same terms as bpc.'

Yes. but better. The gov only has to pay 10000% compound interest by doing a CLN using Trafalgar. (Only joking!)
xxx

Read https://ewnews.com/idb-approves-us-20-million-bahamas-loan-to-acquire-and-distribute-covid-19-vaccine-by-end-of-first-quarter-2021

In no way is this meant to sound demeaning, however if the gov has to borrow the tiny amount of $20m to acquire and distribute the covid-19 vaccine, it raises alarm bells on overall gov fiscal problems. There are some people on this BB with a higher net worth.

The Bahamanian people NEED oil royalties. It is in the public interest and public purse. BPC has funded and spent $110m to do so in a solid contract including EIA approval. What's all the fuss by a few who are trying to put a clog in the wheels?

Starchild

We will likely get RNSs starting today/monday, and daily thereafter every time the Hedge Fund sells any shares. This is because they have around 8% of the company's shares and this will apply until they reach below 3%.

Starchild

To add to Tiburn’s excellent post, my opinions on the court case, recent share dilution, and huge potential of ex-CERP:

As pointed out overnight, the IceMax is on the move, likely heading to the spud location, however its positioning tracker is not providing real-time data as at 3:30am.

There appears to be no news yet about the Court hearing, if in fact the court agrees to hear the case before it closes eod Wed 23/12, the date of the last listed case. IMO the case is flawed and too late. Even if it goes ahead with the miniscule possibility of an injunction, it will almost certainly be appealed in haste. Put simply, the Bahamian people have the right to know if there is oil and the country is broke. See http://www.tribune242.com/news/2020/dec/17/15bn-debt-repayment-year-no-problem/

The meritless action by the few, allegedly maliciously timed to hurt BPC and its shareholders may be actionable. The SP would have been much higher. Because it wasn’t, the recent capital raise was at 2p. I am not enamoured by this which is an opinion shared by many. However, the BoD had to make some tough decisions at a time potential sources of funding had likely dried up based on the legal threats. In the end they chose what appears to be a Hedge Fund investor. (About: https://www.lombardodier.com/modules/documents/NWL/NWL_1798_CH_EN.PDF?isin=KYG675283009&cdCountry=CH&cdLanguage=EN& )

As I see it, the BoD hedged getting funding for contingencies and to invest in ex-CERP assets NOW, vs the risk of Percy-1 being a duster. If the latter, most folks here would agree that even if an investor could be found, it would likely be appalling share-dilution at punitive rates. Even though I believe the SP will increase substantially leading to spud result in Feb, BPC has no duty to traders who want to jump ship or play with the stock. The BoD wants BPC to have the capital to grow ex-CERP assets with or without Percy-1. According to Auctus, page 18, the potential for Ex-CERP is 7-7.5p SP WITHOUT Percy-1 (Source https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/12/08133633/Auctus-BPC_IOC_08.12.2020.01.pdf ).

Bottom line: I have provided research in the last few weeks that we are probably fully hedged in the event Percy-1 is a duster, subject to some patience. Ironically, my estimate of 5p end 2021/early 2022 was ridiculed by some who appear to dislike BPC, especially ex-CERP. To get to 7p SP (excluding Percy-1) we need capital. This means some share dilution. Although we are all unhappy at the 2p rate caused by the actions of the few who hate BPC, I don’t think the BoD had a choice and I trust their judgement.

IMHO. DYOR.

Have a great day

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Ps…If you wish to participate in the IceMax crew Christmas raffle with a gift, refer to my previous posts. It’s very simple to do. Your gift doesn’t have to arrive by Christmas, only proof it has been ordered. The crew will really appreciate it.

Khonsu:
1. Simple probabilities (eg, roulette row) is one thing, CoS is another....

2. Cos (refer to deep dive by an expert, Balakrishnan Kunjan here https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338763799_Click_to_view_slide_presentation_EA_Line_of_Sight_Exploration_Managing_Uncertainties_for_Exploration_Success_-Concepts_Challenges_and_Implementation )

There are various percentages in play to make an overall 33-35% chance of success.

Starchild

Although most of us have read the recent article http://www.tribune242.com/news/2020/dec/15/minnis-can-shut-country-not-escape-oil-deal/ , …. I believe one of the comments left below the article summed everything up in the local dialect brilliantly. I quote ‘Islandboy’ word for word….

‘……This country needs money. All these people who saying we shouldn't drill for oil ean makin no sense. Why leave money in the ground. If the government going to make 25% off any oil found then that's less VAT and other taxes we have to pay. Only rich people can be environmentalists. Y'all can't be suffering like most of us who been without jobs for months and eating fire engine every day. Let the people dem at least drill to see if anything there. I read up and it says they only gat a 35% chance of finding anything so I don't understand what all this noise about. Chances are they aint ga find nothing but at least they should check to see if we have anything. The govment could then try to renegotiate on what the payout will be. Yinna people who living out west in ya big house ain't feeling no pressure. This country needs money!!!!!....................’

Have a great day

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Ps…If you wish to participate in the IceMax crew Christmas raffle with a gift, refer to my previous post. It’s a very simple 1-2-3 to do.

laallee: that was below the belt. Karma

Although I have a thick skin and am long in the tooth, I have been on the phone to Samaritans most of the day in despair because I wanted to throw myself under a bus. Not because of the insults, but because of being accused of being similar to another poster on here. In the end I didn’t, because Samaritans expertly deduced there are no buses within several clicks of where I live.

Based on some of the comments aimed against me for proposing, (after posting about the matter since 20/11 with generally positive feedback), a whip round for the Stena IceMax crew, I have come to the conclusion there are some pretty vindictive spiteful persons on this BB. Some are the usual suspects who, to put it diplomatically, we have never seen eye to eye. Some are purportedly LTHs yet newbies on this BB.

I have no issue with any poster disagreeing with me and giving reasons in a respectful dignified manner on this matter or any matter. Some, who I respect did this despite disagreeing with me today. That's fine. BUT BE NICE TO OTHERS. WILL THIS HURT?

So I repeat my post from this morning below. If you don’t wish to take part in the raffle….DON’T. IF YOU DO, THEN DO. It’s nothing to do with money or how much someone earns, it’s about making a small group of people happy and being nice. IT’S UP TO YOU for goodness sake.

Post from this morning.......

On Christmas day the +/- 130 Stena IceMax crew will hold a raffle. For background information refer to my post on 13/12 08:14 am. This year is special as they are away from their families at XMAS time in the middle of a global pandemic. It is true they get paid well, but they are drilling to find ‘OUR’ oil and it’s the thought that counts. Karma.

Logistics should you wish to participate.

1. Order your gift online

2. Delivery address: C/o Mr Chris Carbaugh, Chief Operations Officer, Stena Drilling Ltd, Ullevi House, Greenbank Crescent, Aberdeen AB12 3BG, UK. [01224 401180 < for the delivery driver]

3. Forward your order confirmation to icemax [dot] raffle [at] stena.com . This will ensure it matches the actual delivery and to avoid spiteful trolls promising a ‘spectacular winning’ ticket that will never be honoured.

4. In the email above provide an optional MESSAGE to the raffle winner and whether you wish for anonymity by stating ‘From a BPC shareholder’ or similar instead.

5. When the crew return to UK end of January, they will pick up their prizes or Stena will deliver to their homes.

I believe everyone onboard will appreciate this gesture even if they don’t win anything. What I personally won’t appreciate is snide remarks or sarcasm by those that do not wish to participate.

I will re-post this a couple of times a day for the next few days to ensure a wider audience. I will keep an eye out for any questions. Please post on the Facebook group and ADVN a couple of times.

Have a great day. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Today’s RNS https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/w3mdozx was probably aimed at the ‘shareprofits’ guy’s allegations.

The latest funding arrangement is NOT death spiral financing. The investor has until 60 days after spud, +/- 18 Feb 2021 to sell all or some of these 375m new shares. If they are sold at an average of less than 2.3p, then BPC has to make the difference in cash NOT more shares.

I also find the date interesting. It implies to me we will not get spud result until after this date. But I may be wrong.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

On Christmas day the +/- 130 Stena IceMax crew will hold a raffle. For background information refer to my post on 13/12 08:14 am. This year is special as they are away from their families at XMAS time in the middle of a global pandemic. It is true they get paid well, but they are drilling to find ‘OUR’ oil and it’s the thought that counts. Karma.

Logistics should you wish to participate.

1. Order your gift online

2. Delivery address: C/o Mr Chris Carbaugh, Chief Operations Officer, Stena Drilling Ltd, Ullevi House, Greenbank Crescent, Aberdeen AB12 3BG, UK. [01224 401180 < for the delivery driver]

3. Forward your order confirmation to icemax [dot] raffle [at] stena.com . This will ensure it matches the actual delivery and to avoid spiteful trolls promising a ‘spectacular winning’ ticket that will never be honoured.

4. In the email above provide an optional MESSAGE to the raffle winner and whether you wish for anonymity by stating ‘From a BPC shareholder’ or similar instead.

5. When the crew return to UK end of January, they will pick up their prizes or Stena will deliver to their homes.

I believe everyone onboard will appreciate this gesture even if they don’t win anything. What I personally won’t appreciate is snide remarks or sarcasm by those that do not wish to participate.

I will re-post this a couple of times a day for the next few days to ensure a wider audience. I will keep an eye out for any questions. Please post on the Facebook group and ADVN a couple of times.

Have a great day. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Linton: thanks for posting the recent BPC IceMax video hTtps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWDerEJagmc&feature=youtu.be I found the last few words key to this excellent video…’let’s find out.’

Bynari: thanks for your many IceMax tracking posts. As you state, she is now stopped and sitting next to another vessel which is the offshore supply ship Hos Clearview. Below link c/o Afterburn450 https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:199104/mmsi:235092459/imo:9517575/vessel:STENA_ICEMAX

Legal points. It’s great we have such an accomplished QC representing BPC https://www.matrixlaw.co.uk/member/clare-montgomery/ I’m sure she has or will advise on the points below.

1. Tom Winniferth’s (*************) allegations where he apparently used the words ‘fraudulent’ and ‘insolvency’ while disparaging BPC and Gneiss who brokered the deal are in my opinion meritless, potentially libellous and if so, actionable. I have not read the source and have relied on posters on this BB. I refuse to subscribe to ‘shareprofits.’

2. The RNS yesterday was based on a 2p SP. This is I believe an example of how BPC and its shareholders have been hurt financially by recent posturing by the applicants for a judicial review and their advisors/publicists. Had no such action been filed or threatened to be filed in court at the eleventh hour at a time BPC were negotiating its final funding needs, the SP would likely be in the 4p range today and the institutional investor having a base price of at least 3p. This means in round figures instead of 400m shares being issued, it would have been +/- 250m. I believe this damage may be actionable.

3. Although share discussion forums are known for being manipulated by traders for selfish gain, what I find unacceptable and unethical is persons with no stake in the company who want to allegedly hurt BPC, its actual shareholders and the SP, using this BB as a platform for environmental or Bahamian political activism. It makes no sense to bombard this forum comprising of shareholders unless the objective is to lower the SP (refer to point 2). If it can be proven there is a connection between those persons and the judicial review applicants/advisors/publicists, it will not bode well in court as to a party’s conduct and furthermore may be actionable if proven.

I continue to have full faith in the BPC BoD which is why I purchased 1.84m shares yesterday and disclosed the fact before it being shown as a delayed trade. I did so because we are now on the home straight, with one insignificant 1 foot fence to jump (or hop over): the meritless case to stop next week’s Percy-1 spud.

IMHO. DYOR. Have a great day.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/