Member Info for Starchild

We now have a 9th market maker trading BPC as of this morning. (Shown as 'MREX' on 2nd level console)

Profile https://www.londonstockexchange.com/information-sheet/marex-financial/2020/67?lang=en

I wonder why they decided to join the party as of this morning, other than substantial BPC trading/momentum is expected.

Starchild

Sharescare: I stand by the opinions in my 2 previous posts on the Lombard deal not having unconditional rights to dump shares. However I respect your opinion and that of others who disagree with me. Be assured it wasn’t a half-hearted advanced ramp in case of a duster, to try and keep the SP at 1p rather than plummeting to sub 0.5p. But ponder the following: Refer to 7/1/21 RNS you quoted from (source https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/w0y5j8x ) . Note 6.ii.iii, with a key point edited in CAPS. ‘………the date on which BPC may be required to make a reconciling payment to the Investor is extended ….. to 16 April 2021, this extension allowing a considerably longer window for the determination of the need for a reconciliation payment (if any), which BPC CONSIDERS TO BE TO ITS ADVANTAGE….’

1. If Lombard has the right to dump all its shares unconditionally (whether duster or not), why is the extension to 16 April of any relevance whatsoever? Why is it ‘advantageous?’

2. Nowhere in the two Lombard RNSs, does it state in the event they do not make a 15% ROI, BPC must make (or be liable for) the reconciliation payment within 24 hours. The fact it has not been spelt out is because it is only of interest in the event of a duster. It would be negative to issue an RNS that had Little Britain’s Vicky Pollard type wordage to include every eventuality ……….’if but, no but, yes but if duster, but if ex-CERP in 6 months, no but, reserve based lending yes, but no, and Irene had it off with Ross’….. etc.’

Brex22: Thanks for keeping us informed re your post yesterday evening from Protect Clinton Bay’s chairman.

Llallee: There is an underlying camaraderie between BPC LTHs, with the occasional heated skirmish usually resolved soon after the weaponised handbags have been stood down. On several occasions I have defended contributors who post in good faith from offensive trolls or BB manipulators who do not post in good faith. It does not mean I’m sucking up. Also don’t assume ‘Noviceinv’ means ‘novice investor’. From h/er posting history he/she set up the name to very likely mean ‘NO-VICE-INVOKER’, to deal with trolls and idjuts in a symbolic policing capacity. I don’t need defending, nevertheless loyalty between anonymous posters is good.

Bahamas recent article:
I did not write or contribute to Monday’s well written article as alleged. https://thenassauguardian.com/oil-drilling-called-golden-opportunity-for-bahamas/ . The Amsterdam based shareholder who was interviewed is probably active on this BB, but it was not me. My only connection to the Netherlands is my fondness of ‘Old Dutch Master‘ Gouda cheese and Vincent van Gogh. One of my many ex-wives (but can’t remember which one) only had one ear in the sense she never listened to me.

DY.OR GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Jono: you are right to take info from RNSs, but RNSs do not spell out all the details in commercial arrangements. Mine is an opinion based on assumptions and what historically happened with Trafalgar.

have a great day

About to go out

Starchild

If anyone asks the question, 'so why didn't BPC announce the details of the deal?' The answers are bleedin' obvious:

1. It's confidential

2. If I was Lombard I wouldn't want the details released as it would cause the SP to potentially pivot at the threshold guarantee point. For example if the Back-stop is 1.9p, the SP could get to 1.9p for support / resentence. Same applies at 2.1p. Depending on momentum and other stuff going on, eg court case tomorrow.

Warning:
look up https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll

and then look up https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/proselenes/ …..’ Will I buy BPC ? No way. Not now, not again.’ ……So, I ask two simple rhetorical open questions to the reader of this post. Why spend days on end bombarding this BB when s/he has no shares? Is it out of kindness and concern to fellow human beings so they don’t lose money?

Starchild

Jono: re our posts, to be guaranteed 2.3p does not necessarily mean BPC has indemnified the full 2.3p when 2p is the discounted value of the share.

If I owned a large block of flats and sold one of them at discount with a 15% guarantee on ROI, it would not be an unconditional deal. The buyer would be free to sell at anytime but not at any price. Furthermore, if I used the other flats as collateral for the deal in case the buyer didn't get a 15% return, I would have even more conditions built into the agreement.

But again, that's just my opinion and somewhat irrelevant if Percy-1 strikes commercial quantities of oil.

ATB

Starchild

Some on this BB believe the Lombard deal is very risky in the event of a Percy-1 duster. The fear being, Lombard are guaranteed 2.3p on c560m shares with the belief BPC has given an unconditional guarantee.

I do not believe it is unconditional because:

1. The most important: it would have been one of the greatest investment/lending opportunities of 2020 with queues of investors lining up outside BPC’s HQ salivating at the idea of being part of the action. Think about this: 15% ROI plus a lot more if Percy-1 and the whole B structure un-risked resulting is a surge to the SP. Or 15% return plus a guarantee to own a large chunk of the company (including its ex-CERP assets potentially worth 7p per share) in the event of a duster. Anything that sounds too good to be true, is usually….too good to be true.

2. The 2nd most important: why hasn’t Lombard dumped the whole lot already, come back for more, and before dumping, shorted the share to make even more profit? Because they can’t.

3. The BPC BoD is not naïve or inexperienced.

I believe there is a price back-stop of c2p, meaning Lombard takes the hit IF they sell for under 2p. I also believe BPC has guaranteed the 15% ROI but not the whole 2.3p. Why? Let’s look back at the Trafalgar Lind deal.

1. Trafalgar got 106m shares on 10/8/20 ( https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/w0llenw )

2. Trafalgar were guaranteed a 10% ROI, although the effective actual share-price was never made public. It was based on a complicated SP algorithm as shown in an RNS. (Page 18 https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/08/27140719/Notice-of-AGM-24-7-20-Final.pdf )

3. For 5 weeks from until 15/9/20 the SP festered at around 2p with relatively low daily trading volumes as Trafalgar disposed shares. ( https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BPC.L/history?p=BPC.L )

4. This leads me to believe 2p was written into the agreement as a back-stop. If it hadn’t, Trafalgar could have dumped the whole lot in 1 week, come back for more, and before dumping, shorted the share to make even more profit. Why didn’t they? Because they couldn’t.

Key points: I am of the opinion the Lombard deal is conditionally guaranteed at 15% of the ROI portion of the investment with an agreed fixed security of 2p/share (pre-paid by the issued shares). Put simply, if Lombard subscribes $20m, BPC’s exposure is $3m max assuming Lombard sold for less than 2.3p rather than waiting for ex-CERP revenue to kick in next year. Even then, I think Lombard got a great deal at 2p. But, we got a very bad deal, caused by the actions and alleged malicious timing of the court complainants to hurt BPC at a critical funding time. It did hurt….. and I hope BPC sues them in Bahamian and eventually American jurisdictions for punitive damages.

IMHO. DYOR

Glide: Recover soon
Bynari: Great spot re change of crew

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Two open questions

1. If you were the BoD since April 2020, assuming no serious interest in a farm-in or JV, what would you have done differently for overall funding raise to complete Percy-1?

2. Would you have merged with CERP? Big question, connected to Q1. (If your answer is no and Percy-1 a duster, end of the company)

Because of CERP we get the chance to hedge and so does BPC re funding in question 1

Starchild

Key dates:

1. 14/1 Court. (a) I hope BPC can eventually claim the $1.5m in legal fees spent or budgeted for according to today’s RNS, AND (b) claim the extremely low and disgraceful 2p placing caused by the timing and conduct of Fred QC’s clients. They had the right to question Gov processes for EIA approval, but NOT to maliciously ask for the exploration well to be delayed. The latter has affected the SP leading to spud which should be around 4p+ now, after placing overhang disposed.

2. 28/1 Proactive presentation with Simon (I assume live and not pre-recorded)

3. DD/MM ??? Drill results (or interim results if there is a leak, perhaps during the court hearing )

4. 12/02 Or before this date if drill result is stated in RNS: …’the Call must be exercised before the earlier of (a) the date of BPC's RNS announcement of the Perseverance #1 well results and (b) 12 February 2021, failing which, the Call will lapse.’ Source: para 6.2 https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/w0y5j8x

Lombard ‘fire sale’:

Some respected LTH’s appear to be very stressed over the Lombard option. I am not, and continue to have FULL confidence in the BoD. It is unfathomable that the BoD in collective insanity will execute an option the implication of which (if Percy-1 is a duster) would give Lombard the immediate rights to billion(s)of shares or millions of $$$. For goodness sake, let’s give the BoD the benefit of the doubt, before scheming to impeach, storm BPC’s HQ wearing wolf hats, or organising a lynching. We are NOT party to the Ts and Cs to the Lombard deal. Do you not think it has an anti-dumping provision, bearing in mind the capital will be here to invest in ex-CERP assets with increased production from 500/b day to potentially 2500/d by year end? I believe the risk is partly hedged.

IMHO. DYOR

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

IceMax: to state I would willfully mislead anyone is offensive to me.
1. The depth of the sea was as I stated. Similar to Percy
2. NO WAY was I suggesting BPC will hit 550p. I was comparing pre spud minus 6 months to post spud plus 6 months
3. The key point i was making was it is possible to get intel c20 day after spud.
4. the other point I was making, although did not spell it out in this morning's post, (but did in previous posts) was the possibility of a leak (de-fact via the court case) or otherwise.....which could result in an RNS

I'm in meetings most of the day and wrote stuff in good faith as always. Perhaps others can provide research and links on the matter and other points of interest.

Based on your post, I expect de-rampers (usual suspects) will feed off it

Starchild

NellyB: Thanks for reminding us about the 2010 Rockhopper Sea Lion (Falklands) story. Excellent timing re my points 6 and 7 below.

Key facts:
1. The water depth was 500m similar to Percy-1

2. On 16 April 2010, it commenced drilling of its first exploration well. On 6 May 2010 the company announced it had made the first oil discovery in the Falkland Islands. Source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rockhopper_Exploration

3. Its share price did in fact soar within days (very fiddly exercise, but go to Yahoo history and download spreadsheet for its daily SP for 2010). PoO was c$75/b.

4. SP Peaked at 549.4p on 24/9/2010, 5 months later. (The professional de-rampers on this BB, as an excuse to post BASELESS negativity, will complain that NellyB grossly exaggerated by stating 550p and not the true figure of 549.4p)

5. RKH pre-spud excitement cannot be compared to BPC as they didn’t have a court case maliciously timed to destroy their share price and company. However in Sept 2009 SP was around 30p. It became a c20 x bagger 12 months later. Warning: if ones' blood pressure is affected by BPC going from 2p – 3p to 2.5p to 3.5p etc etc……..it may prudent to connect oneself to a drip for medical reasons if Percy-1 is a success, as global traders will come out to play en masse .

6. 20 days from RKH Spud to announcement!!!! As I write, Percy-1 is on day 22!!!!!

7. (in case you missed point 6) …….20 days from RKH Spud to announcement!!!! As I write, Percy-1 is on day 22!!!!!

Key point: I will not be surprised if there is an RNS this week for reasons I stated in my last few posts, because ………………’THEY’ KNOW! However no RNS, does not mean bad news.

IMHO. DYOR as this is a high risk high reward play.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

ps….Cor blimey, I aint wanna be out of this share by the weekend. (which is why a bought 1m end of last week, and disclosed the transaction on this BB)

Cars: 'What is the reason behind the dark tight hole?'

IMO...

1. If on the instance of the gov, it is their right to know the facts first, due to the political environmental sensitivity of the matter.

2. If on the insistence of BPC, it is possibly because of the last piece of funding remaining. If no funding remaining it would make no difference as a share-price has no relevance to cash available unless a company needs to leverage cash via its shares. (CLN or if it owns shares in treasury)

Let's remember the tight hole announcement was made before drilling and not a BPC defensive posture mid drill.

BTW, Crawley 2 Leeds 0. Underdogs sometimes do well when the stars align...if the show PERSEVERANCE

GL
Starchild

Just a thought prior to watching lots of footie this afternoon......

The court case is on Thursday 14/1 (our evening) unless adjured. Court proceedings are public with some exceptions. If BPC has found the presence of oil (subject to all the tests in a few weeks time on viability/commerciality etc), it may come out in court.

If the judge asks, 'have any hydrocarbons been discovered as yet?' BPC's barrister or the Gov's barrister can't say, 'sorry your honour we've signed an NDA and can't tell you'. Added it to this, is what will be disclosed in court as the key justifications for BPC to join the case, and whether the Gov will object. If there is no indication of oil, what's the point in wasting time, money and legal fees on the matter other than to open the door claim damages for the abysmal 2p Lombard deal?

If anything relating to oil is disclosed, it will be a de facto leak in the public domain with a high chance an RNS issued the next morning (friday). If the court announces reporting restrictions (unlikely), i'd give it a 70% chance oil has been discovered.

This possibly explains why the Lombard decision is dated Wednesday, the day before the hearing, in case a leak materialises.

The above analysis is guessing on my part, with some logical assumptions.

All IMHO. DYOR.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

JR710: Excellent detective work on the ‘who’s who’ in your 14:43 post. I recommend you email BPC with this useful intel ASAP. The silent multitude should choose their nation’s destiny, not a small bunch of wealthy foreigners who purport to be the pulse, ears, and mouth of the nation.

Bynari: thanks for reminding everyone of CoMan’s excellent oil tech posts. https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/coman/

Beachrunner: I hope your first ever post at 12:02 is not your last. I found your poem very funny and quite apt. Please post more often!

Other matters:

1. A trusted reputable source with many years oil industry experience kindly answered a couple of offshore oil rig tech questions. I summarize the detailed answers:

a) If an offshore drill is going smoothly, how many feet (or meters per day) do they get through approximately?

'...Very difficult to answer as it varies so much from location to location and within the formations on a particular well. From now on with tech formations it will probably vary from +/- 200-250m when they have reasonably drillable formations but on other days maybe only 50-100m when they are in the harder formations. The hard formations will blunt their drill bits so they will probably need 3 or 4 bits to drill the 12 1/4" section. It will take at least a day if not a day and half to recover the old bit from the well and run in a new one so that's at least 4 or 5 days there just swapping bits which is why i think it will take at least 14 days to drill the section and maybe longer as they all also have to deal with drilling mud losses - there are materials they can pump to cure these losses and the managed pressure drilling system helps but as they may have to case off the problem area to give them a fresh start in a smaller hole size - it just takes time to do...'

b) Would the crew/data room (on or off ship), 20 days after spud, already know of any oil presence? (I don't mean commercial quantities or viability)

'...Yes, they will know for sure if they had oil in the upper Albian target. They will get a good handle as they drill each target if there is anything in it and the wireline logs at the end give the real high quality data they need to make all the proper evaluations....'

2. Some respected LTH’s appear to be quite stressed over the Lombard option. I am not and continue to have FULL confidence in the BoD. It is unfathomable that the BoD in collective insanity will execute an option the implication of which (if Percy-1 is a duster) would give Lombard the immediate rights to billion(s)of shares or millions of $$$. For goodness sake, let’s give the BoD the benefit of the doubt, before scheming to impeach, storm BPC’s HQ wearing wolf attire, or organising a lynching.

Key takeaway: Point 1b above. I’m sure the BoD will make decisions in the interests of all shareholders.

All IMHO. DYOR.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Who knows what’s going on at the drill site?

Definitely
• The BoD and key BPC employees
• Some of the IceMax ship’s crew including key contractors
• Stena HQ exec management in Aberdeen
• Data analysts on-shore working for key contractors, possibly Texas based

Probably
• Most of the IceMax crew
• Some of the supply vessels’ crew
• The government representatives on ship for environmental and safety oversight

Possibly
• Bahamas Government Ministers, PM, Deputy PM and key civil servants working in their offices. Either news is possibly being shared by their reps on ship, or the gov has asked for regular updates from BPC which is their right unless a formal contract or agreement states otherwise.
• Gov lawyers.

Analysis
Under Stock Exchange rules, if market sensitive news has leaked (accidently or otherwise) or is at risk of being leaked, a company must issue an RNS, even in the middle of the day as occurred with the CERP merger announcement.

Without doubting anyone’s integrity in the lists above whatsoever, it is possible the weakest confidentiality link will be Bahamas based. If no oil has yet been found it’s not a big deal (in terms of leaked news) as clearly there are several weeks of drilling left to do. If oil has been found already, it may be very hard to stop the news from leaking as it is both a financial game changer for the Gov and politically controversial.

The bit I haven’t yet fathomed out, is why the Lombard ‘top-up’ decision as announced in the 7 January RNS ( https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/w0y5j8x ), would be made 6 days later on Wednesday 13 Jan next week. What event(s) between Jan 7 and 13 on the drill ship or externally, necessitated 6 days of delay?

My gut feeling, and this is just an opinion based on a hunch rather than evidence, is oil has been found and BPC needs the money for additional costs unless it can find a better deal compared to Lombard. If ‘good’ news is leaked by gov circles, ironically BPC will probably be able to get a better funding deal. As such we MAY get an RNS out of the blue next week. However I could be totally wrong!

Opinions welcome, but let's keep it polite and dignified.

All IMHO. DYOR. GLA. Have a great Saturday.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Findme: best post of the day (despite our 'heated' disagreements during the CERP merger and after)

Starchild
xxx

21alpha: Apologies accepted. You are forgiven! Stay safe.

Newbies: refer to....

https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/proselenes/ …..’ Will I buy BPC ? No way. Not now, not again.’ ……So, I ask two simple rhetorical open questions to the reader of this post. Why spend days on end bombarding this BB when s/he has no shares? Is it out of kindness and concern to fellow human beings so they don’t lose money?

2. https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/irenekrapp/ .......Find one positive post s/he has written in the last 1 year. Or any post that includes research to back the negativity allegedly border-lining on contempt for CERP and now BPC.

I rest my case. Now refer to my researched posts by pressing on the link below.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

21alpha: 'Fair enough , but do you ever think you are being led up the garden path ?'

I'm a big boy, a grandad, have several million shares in BPC, an LTH, and know the Percy-1 CoS, so not sure what you mean. I don't care what the SP is until spud result and willing to take the gamble. If though you are a trader and annoyed you can't play the stock, please don't take it out on LTHs.

BTW I bought another million today. Here's my trade with some editing for confidentiality and security.
08/01/2021 12/01/2021 B83xxxxxxxx Bahamas Petroleum Company plc Ord 0.002p 1000000 @ 2.172 1,000,000 -21,732.95

Have a nice evening

Starchild

21apha: We don't appear to have been introduced and I'm sure you are not of my many ex-wives. So why the rudeness? I used quotes for obvious reasons, rather than to imply what is clearly an exploration well will start producing TODAY at $55 PoO. And no, Simon Potter or BPC or anyone else does not pay me to post my 'crap'

Your appear to have the intellect and manners of a squirrel. Show respect to other posters and it may be reciprocated. Despite this, I wish you well.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Relevant news:

1. Brent PoO now $55+ (rate used for off-shore Bahamas, as any will be 'off the back of a boat' and can be sold anywhere)

2. WTI PoO now $51+ (rate used for onshore Trinidad)

3. Pfizer Vaccine appears to work for 'Kent' UK and South African strains.

Next week:
4. 13/1 last date, BPC can exercise a 'put' option for the Lombard £3.75m/$5m. (RNS probably 14-15/1)

5. 14/1 Court hearing re BPC application to be joined to the case as a party to proceedings. (I hope BPC can claim damages, eg the Lombard deal(s) at only 2p, when it should have been 2.5-3p without the court shenanigans)

In the meantime the Stena IceMax keeps drilling deeper and deeper and deeper

CoMan: If you are reading our posts from above, at the weekend please give us some oil expert tech insights of what's left to do/timetables.

Starchild
xxx

Wotitsworth: 3% is the minimum reporting threshold. Lombard doesn't need to notify after it has breached the 3% level unless it buys more shares afterwards and goes above 3%. in the meantime it must report when it passes 7,6,5,4,3%.

I believe the SP is low, because investors/traders don't know yet if Lombard plan to dispose of a load of shares at +/- 2.3p.

Starchild