What could happen in the next 2 weeks16 Jan 2021 05:39
A few thoughts, some based on recent posts:
The likely reason MREX became the 9th MM on Thursday and SCAP increased its EPS from 200000 to 250000 yesterday is because daily trading volume will be substantial until spud result and will hit the roof for weeks after the Percy-1 result. If a gusher, the reason is obvious. If a duster there will be a lot of initial panic selling with shrewd LTH investors buying at bottom and holding based on the potential of ex-CERP assets. (Analysts have stated ex-CERP alone is potentially worth £250m of BPC’s market cap). To add to the spectacular volume will be traders playing the stock up/down regardless of result.
It would not surprise me if Lombard has done a deal with selected MMs and guaranteed/indemnified that every buy the MM commits to, however small, will be sourced by Lombard. BPC’s MMs are similar to currency exchanges and make a profit from the spread with the EPS being the guaranteed maximum buy/minimum sell price for 200,000 units of a currency. So it’s a bit like Lombard telling an exchange that if anyone wants to convert pounds to dollars, regardless of transaction size, they will supply the dollars…subject to certain conditions. IF this is happening in real world BPC trading, my estimated 20m shares Lombard sold yesterday, could be a lot higher. If a lot higher, the overhang (380m Lombard shares left?) currently depressing the SP will be over quicker than we thought. If my theory is correct and we get c80m shares traded daily of which half are Lombard sells, the overhang should end before BPC’s Proactive presentation on 28 January. Even quicker if Lombard plans to hold some shares in anticipation of the Percy-1 result.
In the meantime, there’s only £100m worth of shares in circulation. Although for the wrong reasons, BPC has received international publicity. This could result in new shareholders, and top-ups from existing ones who just can’t resist. What will be a gamechanger is an RNS sooner than expected in anticipation of a possible leak if too many people around the Gov know what’s going on, assuming the Gov knows what’s going on. This is not an allegation of impropriety or a suspicion anyone lacks integrity, merely that political and game-changing financially hot news is hard to keep secret within the corridors of power. Access to a potential $5b for the Bahamian people (half its national debt) is the equivalent of a news event in the UK that could eventually remove £1 trillion from the UK’s national debt. I suspect in this scenario it would result in more leaks, accidental or otherwise, than half-time at the Super Bowl stadium’s gents’ loos.
IMHO. DYOR. Have a great Saturday. GLA.
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
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