Member Info for Starchild

IceMax/Bespoke: thank you for this. Re the 3% vs 5% I believe the links you provided apply to arm's length holders such as MMs and nominee brokers (Hargreaves, II, Barclays etc). Lombard and hedge funds are very much 'hands on' and make their own decisions on behalf of their clients' investments. However I will make some enquiries and get back to everyone. It may take +/- 2 days.

Starchild

Bespoke: Please provide the link. Thanks.

SyndicateJH: Thank you for your valued input on the Lloyds coverage which makes perfect sense. I find it daft the petition is aimed at the CEO. They clearly don't know how the re-insurance industry works. I foresee a time in the not to distant future, suppliers (insurance companies, investors, etc) to controversial industries such as oil exploration, are allowed anonymity under AIM rules. Comparable to health clinics in the USA that provide abortions. I'm all for protecting the planet, free speech etc...but NOT intimidation or FAKE news. How far should people go to force their heartfelt opinions on others? Mass protests outside places of worship or social media campaigns to convert and save the souls of those who have a different faith?

All:

Lombard: A few posts today about how many shares LO has left. I believe less than 100m for reasons i will explain when this number is reduced to the last 20m. These can be wiped out very quickly if trading picks up based on a positive RNS (eg, ex-CERP assets). The reporting threshold is 3% not as a couple of people stated 5%, unless in a takeover/M+A when the threshold is 1% increments starting at 1%. If anyone disagrees, I will stand corrected but please provide links.

Malcy: I see nothing sinister by not mentioning BPC in his bucket list. I very much doubt he has insider information on the drill result. In fact he mentioned BPC today in his daily email. However, perhaps he too feels intimidated in case he gets a barrage of hate mail.

If today everyone worked together rather than attempting to enforce their opinions on others, the world would be a better place tomorrow. Then I woke up.

GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Refer to yesterday’s article in EWNEWS https://ewnews.com/bpc-seeking-200000-security-for-costs-in-ongoing-judicial-review-proceedings

BPC is seeking $200k security for costs. ‘[BPC’s] Attorney John F Minnis, ….. noted that neither Waterkeepers Bahamas or Coalition to Protect Clifton Bay carry on any commercial business operations within The Bahamas or owns any assets within The Bahamas. In the circumstances, the attorney said he was of the belief that neither entity have any assets, or sufficient assets, to satisfy an order to pay BPC’s costs, if so ordered. BPC is also seeking to have all further proceedings stayed, pending the applicants giving security for costs to BPC.’

My observations with the caveat I am not a lawyer…..

1. If the court orders security for costs, the case will be delayed until they pay, or it will be dismissed.

2. If someone with deep pockets behind the scenes comes up with the cash, they are potentially opening themselves up to BPC cross jurisdictional claims for damages and costs depending where they have assets. For example, purely on the costs aspect, refer to UK court of appeal guidance involving a Cayman Islands company. https://www.mayerbrown.com/-/media/files/perspectives-events/publications/2016/02/uk-court-of-appeal-provides-guidance-on-costs-orde/files/uk_court_of_appeal_provides_guidance_on_costs/fileattachment/uk_court_of_appeal_provides_guidance_on_costs.pdf

The above leads me to the conclusion one of two things is going on:

(a) Either oil has been found, otherwise why is BPC putting itself through all this hassle? And/or

(b) BPC plans to sue for damages and recently announced a $1.5m legal costs budget, and a top QC. Defendants cannot hide behind a legal entity to avoid accountability.

Damages could include costs, the destruction of the SP at a critical time resulting in the Lombard deal being at 2p instead of at least 2.5p - 3p. Using the lower figure, this represents an unnecessary dilution of approx. 140m shares (25%) out of the 563m Lombard received. The future ‘defendants’ need to be very careful in case a court orders them to pay whatever it costs BPC to buy those shares back. If oil found, those 140m shares will cost a lot more than 2p each.

Harry: respectfully I do not have the time, nor the patience to engage with you in unproductive exchanges when you are in one of your bad mood cycles. My sweepstake pre-spud estimate was a very conservative 4.1p if a CLN triggered (posted 15/10/20 16:21). Investec marked pre-spud at potentially 6p. So I stand by the caveated ‘Strong Buys’ and hope BPC pursues every legal means possible to right the wrong.

Off topic:

If we still need $5m and LO doesn’t want to ‘play’, it will be interesting if Stena did a short term deal!

Refer to Tiburn’s excellent analysis at 11:54 yesterday on what could happen in the next few weeks.

Offerman: please PM me.

IMHO. DYOR.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/sta

Irene, in terms of being in the know, what I do know is if I had the dire misfortune of being your husband in ancient Japan, I would order an Uber driver to take me to mount Fuji where I would perform, out of despair, the ritual self-disembowelment act of Seppuku sometimes referred to as Harakiri

Starchild (your ex-husband)

Ps..refer to my previous post.

ps...the word LSE auto-censored in my last post was a male chicken. Not a 'love' act.
Starchild

Baroloboy: I respectfully disagree with you. Whether a Percy-1 oil discovery or not (I strongly believe there is but I could be wrong), BPC are being advised by a highly reputable QC Barrister. Any legal move is on her advisement. It has nothing to do with knee jerk reactions, hubris or so called Aussie temperament.

Furthermore, there’s more than meets the eye. Had a JR been attempted without any threat of allegedly maliciously and baselessly injuncting the drill to harm BPC and its shareholders, the SP would not be where it is today. Because of their actions, the Lombard deal was at 2p. It could have been at a much better rate without these shenanigans by limiting the dilution or increasing the money paid by Lombard for their 563m shares to date. Another reason to continue being party to the EIA proceedings, is it opens the door to litigation against the environmentalists for their behaviour for BPC damages claims as a separate matter in various jurisdictions.

Zaggy: great post, apart from the BoD lynching bit. If BPC was Exxon, most of this wouldn’t have happened nor its suppliers publicly dropping Exxon as a client out of ethical principles. Pleeeeaaaaaaaase.

GG: Great research post re Zoe Cohen. She appears to be a key person in allegedly intimidating financial institutions. See https://extinctionrebellion.uk/2021/01/21/activists-use-barclaycards-to-make-reparations-on-banks-behalf-in-money-rebellions-repairharm-debt-strike/

As for Lombard, I find it totally unprofessional on their part and disloyal to their client BPC. Furthermore, they should have waited until the put/call option had expired. As it stands, they have, I allege, breached confidentiality as they have practically spelt out Lombard will not fund the remaining $5m and told the markets in so many words. I find this inappropriate and perhaps a BREACH of AIM rules. This is where BPC’s Barrister QC will, I am sure, advise appropriately. Lombard has made a dog’s dinner out of this and followed in Lloyds’ (of London) footsteps by immediately doing a knee jerk reaction because of intimidation without thinking it through. Perhaps a PR sacking is on its way for Lombard. I am frankly APPALLED. Especially as they put themselves forward as paragons of virtue here https://am.lombardodier.com/home.html . ...'Dear Lombard, we note you deal with emerging markets.....how many of your investments are in companies that pay sweat shop rates, have no heath cover for employees and pay minimum wages of <30c/hour?' Not alleging anything, just asking.

I believe BPC now has leverage over the recent Lombard ‘****-up’. Watch this space, perhaps in an RNS soon.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Almost exactly one year to the day, research analyst Dr Zac Phillips gave a 9 minute interview about BPC. Worth watching https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQT-xRi6JbI&feature=youtu.be

Some of his observations clearly do not apply now, however many do and in my opinion have been exceeded. I summarise 5 key points in my own words despite the ‘quotes,’ with observations in [ ]

1. ‘Bahamas population were very supportive of exploration’ [Let’s remember this in a few weeks. The environmentalists purport to speak on behalf of the silent multitude. They do not]

2. ‘geological CoS 34% good as you can get’ […for a wild cat frontier drill]

3. ‘If oil found, lack of infrastructure nearby is not an issue…..FPSO etc’ [Sell off the back of a boat. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floating_production_storage_and_offloading ]

4. ‘management team experienced, if complications happen, they’ve been there, done it, and got the T-shirt’ [De-rampers and trolls will likely use the opportunity to gleefully bring up funding issues in March and subsequent dilution. However, I believe the management team have performed miracles. We are now on day 44 of drilling, despite ‘complications’ such as Covid-19, PoO collapse in 2020, funding issues, EIA activists' behaviour and an allegedly malicious failed attempt to destroy the company in court.]

5. ‘if all goes well….company maker….10 times fair value uplift overnight.’ [At the time, potentially 36p SP]

Caveat: Dr Phillips’ interview is one year old. PoO was almost exactly at same price as today $55, but pre CERP merger and additional shares have been issued, so it should be taken in context with recent BPC presentations and analysts’ commentaries……..

Investec 8/10 https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/read/64836057/bahamas-petroleum-company-investec-buy .

Actus 8/12 https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/12/08133633/Auctus-BPC_IOC_08.12.2020.01.pdf

All IMHO. DYOR as this is a high risk, high reward play. Refer to my recent in-depth research and good-faith opinions here https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Have a great day. GLA

Starchild

Things are getting a bit heavy on this BB today, so I propose a competition for levity, as PetroDollar would say. Not to be confused with demonic levitation.

If someone can come up with a post including at least 3 of the arguably 34 craziest words in English, they will win the prize of being honoured by their peers and a bottle of Scotch from me if we ever meet up. Source https://expresswriters.com/34-craziest-words-english/

Rules
The post MUST…..

1. Be meaningful. The reader should get the impression you are cerebral and not crazy.

2. Apply to BPC or events around BPC

3. Clean, in good taste and not (very) rude

I’m off for the rest of the day. GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

What does ‘controversial’ mean?

‘Controversial is used to describe someone or something that causes people to get upset and argue. Controversial is the adjective form of the noun controversy, which is a prolonged dispute, debate, or state of contention, especially one that unfolds in public and involves a stark difference of opinion. Things commonly called controversial include topics, actions, and people (particularly for what they say and do).’ (source www.dictionary.com)

Examples are if BPC….

1. Drilled for oil in the rainforest and cut down thousands of acres.

2. Had subsidiaries specialising in brothels, abortion clinics, marijuana, and gun manufacturing.

3. Had subsidiary banks to manipulate interest and exchange rates to rip off customers.

4. Used child labour or de-facto slave labour.

5. Used whales, dolphins, monkeys, kittens, and puppies to check the quality of any oil finds.

6. Had no environmental / safety checks and balances in place at the highest international standards while exploring, appraising, and producing oil.

7. Had no CSR working practices in place.

8. Started a war for profit.

Oil doesn’t always pollute. It is used for a variety of good purposes including feeding the world. So are knives and axes which can be used for harm. I am all for electric cars and buses, alternative green energy, lowering global warming, protecting the environment and happy to pay a SUBSTANTIAL premium to do so. We have technology to make this happen using oil but it is expensive. If unlimited cheap clean energy were discovered tomorrow, unless rolled out with care, there would be a bloodbath in the middle east and Russia would go broke which could lead to WW3.

Here are some other examples of controversy which can hurt a company, its shareholders and their families:

1. Infiltrating bulletin boards posing as shareholders.

2. Using the media and You-tube to spew fake or misleading news.

3. Intimidating suppliers such as Lloyds to cancel insurances or Lombard not to invest further.

4. Bringing about a court action allegedly maliciously timed to destroy a share price. And at a time a company is seeking finance by leveraging its share price value.

5. Posing as environmentalists with hidden agendas.

I personally find it offensive that being a BPC shareholder, it is implied by some that I am an unethical greedy foreigner taking advantage of the Bahamian people. I am not. Nor am I someone who doesn’t give a @@@@ about the environment.

Oil will be transformational to the Bahamian people who have suffered a hurricane and pandemic. And could provide infrastructure to make the Bahamas a zero CO2 country with solar/wind and wave power.

Safe oil extraction and the environment can live side by side if stakeholders such as BPC, the Gov and the public all work together.

End of my controversial ANGRY Sunday sermon. Have a great day. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/s

Lombard now has less than 141m shares, which is less than the ‘Put’ option for 189m shares. This means they have until 16/4 to sell 141m shares, assuming they do. Refer to RNS 7/1 point 6.ii https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/w0y5j8x . Lombard now has until 12/2 to exercise a ‘call’ option for another 189m shares.

Another reason Friday’s RNS is significant is it gives an idea of Lombard trading. How?

1. At some point on 15/1/21 Lombard had 356m shares (7.56%). See 19/1 RNS https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/w0yypnx

2. At some point yesterday they had less than 3% which means they don’t have to report it. https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/rnpgpkx. This means they currently have less than 142m and even less if they sold more Friday, and/or the notification arrived in the morning but RNSd at 17:40.

3. Since 18/1/21 more than 440m shares have been traded. See https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BPC.L/history?p=BPC.L . This excludes Aquis https://www.aquis.eu/aquis-stock-exchange/for-investors/trades?securityidaqse=BPC.GB and most DMA ones. The totals on a 2nd level console are often higher than Yahoo. (2nd level Friday 97,393,584. Yahoo 90,470,267). I estimate c500m shares have been traded.

4. Therefore Lombard sold 214m shares in 10 days 18/1 – 29/1. Approx 40% of the 500m. Assuming they do not want to hold any shares pending Percy-1 result, even though the determination date to guarantee their ROI is until 16/4, the 142m left will likely clear after c300m trades.

I continue to believe Lombard are not indemnified for sales under 2p. I provided reasoning 3 weeks ago but accept 2 people disagreed with me. I believe that auto (and physical) stop/losses triggered the temp sub 2p SP yesterday. I also suspect traders who foresaw this sold some of their shares at a loss, to make a net profit from CFD derivative shorts. Small market cap oilers are heavily manipulated. See http://www.cfdsurvivalguide.com/cfds/trading-aim-shares Especially when trading volume is low.

I bought another 1m shares Friday based on (a) the price of 2.02p, (b) An assumption the Lombard overhang was less than the ‘Put’ and even if they exercise a ‘Call’ for 188m shares, they have until 16/4 to dispose of all their shares. (c) A potential Percy-1 news leak, (d) Potentially imminent positive RNSs on other matters such as ex-CERP. (d) My continued belief oil has been found and will be fully analysed by April, hence Simon’s statement, …’ By April we will know if the Bahamas is an oil rich nation’. See http://www.tribune242.com/news/2021/jan/26/oil-explorer-blasts-half-baked-claims/ (e) Which could explain why the 16/4 Lombard date is ‘advantageous to BPC’.

IMHO. DYOR as this is a high risk high reward play. GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

'narcissism?' NO...to share CONFIDENCE

Starchild

couldn't resist at 2.0225

Trade below, transaction number edited for security. Shown as a 'sell' because below mid-price.

29/01/2021 02/02/2021 B86xxxxxx Bahamas Petroleum Company plc Ord 0.002p 1000000 @ 2.0225 2.0225 1,000,000 -20,237.95

Starchild

Just noticed, someone yesterday tried to get the WSB gang to hit BPC. Poetic justice to how many LTHs have been played by shorters and CFD players for years. Karma.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l6d7ii/bpc_rlftf_take_a_look_at_bahamas_petroleum_and/

Starchild

Starchild

I stated I would only comment prior to the Percy-1 result in exceptional circumstances.

Frankly, this BB has disintegrated into mayhem. Yesterday there were c500 posts, c90% of which were irrelevant, inappropriate or just plain rude. As for the heckling while the pre-recorded presentation was being played (according to Sarah at the intro, to a record crowd of hundreds), I found it shameful, totally uncouth and I suspect a few folks were inebriated and others were activists and/or BPC haters.

A series of circumstances some of which we do NOT know about, meant Nathan was dropped in at the deep end and pre-recorded for probably legal reasons in case something slipped out or it risked the court case. Based on recent comments on analysing Simon’s body language even if pre-recorded, it does not surprise me Nathan who is an accomplished engineer, gave the presentation. Whereas a highly respected engineer, accountant or programmer can give a factual presentation, the most gifted inspirational speakers in the world would fail dismally if they had to fix an IT problem, deal with a bank, or fix an oil well. End of sermon to the ‘whole’, rather than any individual emotionally caught up in yesterday’s online ‘riot’.

Watch 10 mins from 1hr:53m https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=boyb-vTobqk for 3 key points:

1. S2 will spud as early as next month, with SW peninsula (potential 200m boe) being evaluated with 2 or 3 prospects later this year.

2. Slide 9: stabilise to minimum 500boe/day at a cost of <$20/b including G+A ASAP. [Note: at $50 WTI, this is $30/b gross profit, c$5.5m income compared to current expenses of c$4m excluding cap-ex.]

3. Slide 14: goal 2500boe/d to generate >$15m free cash flow per year (net profit). [Based on revenue run rate of $35m/year according to RNS 12/1/21 Table A: https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/wkqvq1w)]

Last month, analysts stated Ex-CERP assets’ potential is 7 – 7.5p per share (source: pages 16-19 https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/12/08133633/Auctus-BPC_IOC_08.12.2020.01.pdf ). The Actus figure appears to be based on 4.4B shares (page 20) and Brent PoO $48 in 2021.

Nathan re-enforced my opinion that even if ONLY HALF of the above takes places, we are potentially fully HEDGED in the event of a Percy-1 duster, subject to patience. Furthermore, even if today, oil is gushing out of the IceMax, Simon stated it will take until April to know if the Bahamas are an oil rich nation. Clearly this is because samples need to be analysed which will take weeks.

Rhetorical question: If CERP had not merged and had no debt, what would its market cap and SP be today? IMHO, I suspect near where it is now, but that’s just an opinion.

This is a high risk, high reward share, so always DYOR. Let’s try and keep this BB dignified. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Correction to my last post: article was on EWNEWS not Tribune...and Lombard extension date 16 April 2021 ...not 2020.
Starchild

I have temporarily popped my little head up despite the war zone on this forum, to hurl a love bomb, as I believe a material event has possibly happened.

1. Refer to yesterday’s article in the Tribune but ignore the article’s heading. https://ewnews.com/bpc-chief-slams-half-baked-insurance-policy-allegations . You will note Simon Potter (BPC CEO) is twice attributed to making an interesting statement… ‘By APRIL, we will know if The Bahamas is an oil-rich nation.’ If no oil and Percy-1 is currently a total duster, why mention ‘April’, when the word ‘soon’ could have sufficed?

This leads me to the logical assumption oil has probably been discovered and even if the Percy-1 drill takes the full 60 days until +/- Feb 18, several weeks are now planned to fully analyse the findings. This could also explain why 23 days after spud, the mystery surrounding the Lombard deal’s reconciliation date being extended to 16 April 2020 was announced on 12 January. (source https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/wkqvq1w )

2. As a separate matter, I am NOT Leo Koot moonlighting as ‘Starchild’ as suggested by some commentators yesterday. Leo’s resignation is a loss to the company however he probably joined with a 6 month minimum contract for a seamless ex-CERP asset handover. He resigned on Friday after almost exactly 5 months. The RNS did not state ‘with immediate effect’, so he’s possibly still there for another month. Furthermore, the CEO of Tulip (Mr Moshen) resigned in December to leave in January with Leo taking over in January. (Source https://www.offshore-mag.com/business-briefs/people-on-the-move/article/14188471/tulip-oil-names-new-chairman ).

3. Today is Australia day. Good day for a good RNS? Maybe, maybe not.

4. I look forward to Simon’s Proactive presentation on Thursday.

5. Newbies: for a summary of key intel/research/links refer to my last post here https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Warning: This is a high risk, high reward share. DYOR. Never rely on anyone’s posts including mine to make trading decisions.

GLA and be nice.

Le…ooops…I meant Starchild

As this is probably my last post until the Percy-1 spud result good or bad, or until something material happens, I have summarised a few points for newbies.

Ex-CERP

Last month, analysts stated Ex-CERP assets’ potential is 7 – 7.5p per share WITHOUT Percy-1 (source: pages 16-19 https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/12/08133633/Auctus-BPC_IOC_08.12.2020.01.pdf ). The Actus figure appears to be based on 4.4B shares (page 20) including share-options outstanding. It assumes Brent PoO $48 in 2021 and $58 in 2022 (page 21).

I continue to believe we are fully HEDGED in case of a duster subject to some patience. Why patience? Clearly, despite ex-CERP’s potential, in the event of a Percy-1 duster, the share price will plummet with share-dumping on masse, before recovering after ex-CERP positive news is released during the next few months. The BoD’s aim is 2500boe/day by year end. If achieved, >$35m per year revenue run rate from 2021 is projected. (Source RNS 12/1/21 Table A: https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/wkqvq1w)

Percy-1

According to the same Actus report page 18, the potential is >17p (assuming UNFUNDED development), excluding ex-CERP. Total c25p. What is not clear is if the 17p net figure is based on $40 PoO, and a 770 mmbbl discovery (estimated to have a NPV10 in excess of US$2.5 bn), as stated on page 11.

Investec analysts’ take a more optimistic view. They predict the possibility of 39p on success assuming 700m boe and 4b shares (today 4.7b). Source: 8/10/20 https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/read/64836057/bahamas-petroleum-company-investec-buy . However, if you refer to page 5 table 6, Investec provides a broad SP range depending on how many millions of barrels: 200m 8p, 500m 26p, 770m 39p, 1000m 61p, 1440m 89p.

Summary and disclaimer

I have several million BPC shares. I started posting 11 months ago initially out of boredom due to covid-19’s impact on my businesses. I then continued because I enjoyed it. This BB is a forum to exchange views and opinions normally politely except for professional de-rampers, share manipulators or trolls.

All my posts (532 pages Word.doc) have been in good faith, researched and linked where possible. I prefer to share 1 meaningful post a day than to clutter-up this BB with 30 posts of self-opinionated tripe. What I don’t need, want or have time to deal with is being placed on a pedestal where my every word is analysed as if an RNS. This BB is about BPC not me.

Respectful disagreements are fine, but being accused of misleading, lying, stating falsehoods, or trading behind people’s backs is not. Especially re the latter as the SP is only 2.1p it’s a good time for me to have a time-out.

This is a high-risk high reward play, so always DYOR or take professional advice. I wish everyone well.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Shrescare: resign from this BB today unless you offer a public apology for your posts over last few days. Do not appear in another name again. You get one chance. This is not an idle 'threat'.

Starchild

Sharescare: Explain what you mean by your last post.

Are you stating I am a liar?

Starchild