The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
The SP action depends heavily on what will happen around us, most other oilers are enjoying the rally and there's no indication of any pull back yet.
Just because someone drew a bowl does not mean the price will follow suit. Silver is an industrial metal mined in fairly large quantities and major players will be selling aggressively if the price exceeds $30~35, imv this also applies to Hochschild, as they'll update their current silver hedges.
31.90p resistance was broken this morning, now it's likely that 33p will be tested this week and when surpassed, 36p will be likely the next major test. #notAdvice
$88,30 at the moment, heading to $90. Tullow must have averaged above $80 per barrel in February and March. Most likely we'll exceed the FCF forecast for April.
"Hopefully it holds some large sells coming through £25k+"
Some are getting very desperate, increasing the selling pressure to push the SP below 30p. If the tax rumours are true then they are in big trouble... margin call, baby!
https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/We-don-t-harass-businesses-for-taxes-GRA-responds-to-Bawumia-1922570
https://www.msn.com/en-xl/africa/ghana/individuals-businesses-to-have-tax-amnesty-in-2025-under-my-government-dr-bawumia/ar-BB1kjchD
It would be interesting to see how the shareholders vote. Last night I went through the annual report to see what they say about the shareholders, including IR, communication etc. (because imv, it is poor). Also, a big question mark over the CFO and some of the decisions (or lack of) and timing. Not good enough in my book.
The SP has been falling when every stock is flying on the bull market, so what will happen when the tide turns?
What's interesting here is that from a total of 6.9 kboepd, 0.5 kboepd (outside of Ghana) brought in $9m. This is because of the Ghana gas agreement, we're just gifting them 5 kboepd but that's not a gas blag or RD tweaking the balance sheet! If it wasn't for the agreement, the same mmbtu-s of gas should make 6.9 kboepd worth of revenue.
Tullow measures production and sells gas in mmbtu but they don't seem to adjust their kboepd figure for the discount. From Full Year results:
"Net gas production in Ghana averaged 6.4 kboepd in 2023 and marked the first commercialisation of associated gas from the Jubilee field. The interim Gas Sales Agreement, initially valued at $0.50/mmbtu, was amended in July 2023 to a price of $2.90/mmbtu and subsequently increased in November to $2.95/mmbtu, after applying year-on-year inflation indexation. This agreement represents a revenue stream for Tullow of c.$4 million per month."
"Included in Total Revenue of $1,634 million is gas sales of $38 million of which $29 million relates to Ghana. During the year, Ghana exported 35,754 mmscf (gross) of gas at an average price of $1.54/mmbtu."
The way it's on the balance sheet should mean pumping X amount of gas would be equivalent to an additional 7,000 bopd when sold. The amount of energy will depend on how the commodity is used.
Surely they're talking about the equivalent "ebopd". Nobody measures gas in kilobarrels.
What is your 7k gas blag? Genuine question. For Tullow, X amount of gas fetches the equivalent price of 7k bopd, so why can't it be added to Ghana revenue?
I just did. How many shorter theories have you posted about who's lending to whom?
Don't switch the focus to GS, they loan other stocks too. You mentioned big investors and Samuel in particular. If it's below notification threshold then you must have an insight info, or as I called it special knowledge to roughly estimate where the money is flowing - you posted "follow the money" on numerous occasions. Hope you won't deny that too.
Just scroll through your old comments and re-read your own posts on what shorters are doing and how they are selling in small quantities etc. Also, on big holders lending to shorters, bringing Samuel into the mix... I don't recall seeing an rns where Samuel loaned any shares.
Well done! However, claiming that you have special knowledge, always spot on and everyone else is a fool is a bit naive. I can explain where the 39p sell idea comes from without magic or "special knowledge". If you look at the chart, the SP was rejected from 39,80 in September 2023 (on the previous approach). Also, prior to that when 40p support was broken late in 22, we then re-tested 39p from below in January 23. Historically, 40p has seen increased volumes and acted as support in September 21 and in July 22. Moreover, 39p was in play during corona in June 2020 as a major resistance to the initial recovery move. As you can see, calling 39p sell when the stock is overbought with RSI peaking on large time frames is not more special than calling the green zero, if you know how casinos make their money.
Please don't forget to remind everyone that you called a sell at 39p. Last night I called the green zero in roulette and over the course of the evening it landed there! It's a better call that your 39p put since Tullow's SP doesn't have such a wide range.
Bears have turned 30p into resistance and there will be large sells as we approach the 30p mark, that's normal.
Harsh as usual with Marshalls. The revenue was let down by new build housing. Despite that,
- the company is still profitable
- our new CEO, Matt Pullen did not sugar-coat things because he has to show progress
- net debt is down
- they expect an increase in revenue in H2
Big players may prefer selling if they sense weakness and potential in a short trade.