Aquakidd - i'm very long here but i know the difference between a buyer and a seller. Clearly buyers and a buyer is taking the stock also but at the moment the seller or sellers are in control. THat's why the price is dropping and the ask is heavy.
Everyone can come up with a theory when it's really quite simple.
If a large seller or seller is offloading their position and that exceeds the buying pressure the price is going to go down. And that applies to any other stock also! What would be helpful in due course is some holding rnss which would bring more clarification
Splendor - what i particularly like going forwards are not just the cashflow projections and how that highlights cheap multiples but how that the upside can be accelerated through further notable discoveries. At Cullinan of late, there's been quite a surge which demonstrates that the new block cave continues to deliver world class stones. Of late, there was the $40m received for the five blue diamonds back in November, the $12.2m received for the 299ct in March and the latest update re the 39ct blue. My conservative estimate on this is $15m. A further continuation of such discoveries will really grow the confidence levels here and also the liquidity. It's great to know that at any point an rns can land
This is a reminder that in the markets it doesn't matter what the underlying fundamentals are or the catalysts.... the largest shareholders can put a lid on things when they want! It'll sort itself at some point though !
Todays move is probably more reflective of the fact that so many retail investors have loaded at these levels because of the seller that they've probably just dumped on the news. This seller needs to be ridded then this same discussions will be happening at a materially higher sp. Patience will be rewarded i'm sure with a rising dividend also.
The top three free cash % yield miners13 Apr 2021 10:45
In this order...
Petra Diamonds Ferrexpo Tharisa
Petra is unloved presently but Peel Hunt wrote a note last week that showed them reversing $300m net debt to net cash by 2023. THat's an incredible move and that also discounts them finding further big blue diamonds so those figures could even be beaten. Global diamond production has peaked so thats a tailwind also. At only a £140m market cap that kind of cash flow should deliver a x3, x4 move from current levels at minimum.
Ferrexpo is no 2 at today's iron ore prices and is the monster dividend payer. With decades of production to ahead, imagine the returns on offer to shareholders. The largest shareholder clearly likes his dividends so I don't see that changing. It's unclear why they don't leave a bit more cash on the balance sheet though as that would fund in itself the big production growth to 20m tonnes in 2023, 24. If they keep paying out such dividends they may take on some debt ahead.
Tharisa also throws off cash and like Petra is South African based and is the go to stock if you want rhodium exposure. Dividends should grow ahead and there's a growth story in Zimbabwe ... if you're happy to invest there ! :)
Richard Griffiths is a very shrewd investor and normally involved in multi-baggers. He's just disclosed for example that he's the largest shareholder at Sterling Energy with a 20m share holding. AFter yesterday's fantastic news here, i'd be very surprised if he is closing out. The small number of shares in issue here could easily deliver a x3 , x4 from here ahead.