RE: Mundy15 Jul 2019 12:31
Interesting remark: Something positive that was not perhaps taken into account is the effect of pound weakness. FT reports in Sterling while 70% of its turnover is won in foreign currencies particularly US dollar and Euro. The pound is now at 2 year low against the US $ and also weaker against the Euro. In my opinion, currency fluctuations due to Brexit will boost FT numbers by at least 10%. All what FT earns in the UK remains in Sterling while anything coming in will be converted into Sterling will add 5 - 10%. Then if Brexit goes pear-shaped, Sterling will go to parity with the Euro and becomes very weak against the US $. To me currency fluctuation in the future will be a revenue booster to all companies reporting in Sterling but selling mostly abroad. FeverTree will be one of the prime strong beneficiaries.
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Example: . FT sales will translate into more Sterling as the other currencies such as the dollar or euro are stronger. Say if £1 = $1 (weaker pound or situation where we are now), then the amount of Sterling entering into FT coffers will be higher. Example: If FT sold $20 million in the US, then FT will bank £20 million when translated into Sterling. Whereas if the pound is stronger than the dollar - as it was before -, say £1 = $1.3 (you get more dollars with less pounds), then FT will bank (exchanged dollars) $20M/1.3 = £15.3M, a reduction or loss of earning of £20M - £15.3M = £4.7M or 23.5% less when £1 was $1. Therefore, a weaker Sterling will be positive for FT earnings as its earnings are in £.