Member Info for spike912

5p would give us a mcap of £300mill. Compare that to our piers, whilst nice to think, imo 5p would be dreamland for all of us! But not purely on announcing a FO (not full but out)

Nutsy, we need to consider,

- we don’t know it’s a tier 1
- it’s only worth what we can sell for, and a back date of costs for example won’t be much, we haven’t spent substantial money on the conventional bar shooting some 3D
- we don’t know the extent of data nor what the bidder will value “potential in the ground”

We have to be real here, we are selling or FO a proven drilled field or have any exploration wells.

Not saying your wrong at all (as I could be!), but logic states (for me anyway) hundreds of millions won’t be added on announcement of FO. Maybe during/after drilling depending on success imo

We are “farming out” not lock stock sale which may attract a short term bigger sum

But it’s all speculation

I really do hope so, and DW knows dilution is a non starter, and with multiple bidders to choose from he must have considered this.

I hope your right, maybe I’m just glass half empty given bitten a number of times this year, but as you say, none of us know the detail. Hopefully a pleasant surprise as by god I could do with one!

I guess logic would say to add 1p the FO has to be non dilutive, and worth in excess of £60mil. Possible? Maybe
But in reality, some back costs say £10mil max, maybe a couple of wells, small free carry.

I guess the question is what deal would be worth £60mil for 1p or £120mil for 2p addition to SP, and non dilutive (ie not having to pay part of a drill based on our WI in the actual well itself like cluff)

The cynic in me says the market knows, as I make no sense of a falling SP from the recent 1p +. Even expectation alone imo this should be rising, yet we are falling. Leak? No. Market has some rough idea but not confirmed in any detail. Maybe

We know it’s a tight ship, but sub 1p? Really? My gut is telling me this isn’t going to be the deal breaker multi bagger we all hope.

That said i really hope I’m wrong as a lot of people have been here years and we all deserve some luck as the market has been terrible lately.

GL and we all look forward to what we hope is positive news

1750mk1, your correct, I hadn’t done the conversation!

£279mil unrestricted cash, that under values the company at a CASH only position of negative 15%!

Cash only now makes the SP circa £21!

Brom, I would imagine it’s because it’s VERY close, as you say, a month isn’t long so one can assume that it’s more likely going to be issued next week imo

The Group has significant liquid resources in the form of cash reserves of €1.8 million and equity investments which can be readily liquidated for €14.1 million at the year end (Feb 19).

I haven’t seen anywhere starting we have touched the €14.1 mil and poly price has risen.

As of today our mcap is £15mil (Euro v pound about the same).

This makes the company totally unvalued on the bio med product, and the associated IP

If we take someone like Motif Bio, with a drug that failed FDA, they have a mcap of £8mil priced on a failed submission to FDA so they don’t even know it works! Our drug WORKS.

So let’s add a conservative £8mil to the mcap (although given how the drug has performed I believe it should be ALOT more than this), it would equate to a mcap of £23mil or share price 25p MINIMUM

Now, that’s on a worst case using Motif Bio and a failed drug years from market if ever at market.

You then look at Faron, however they have two drugs one of which is cancer and both show superb signs but it’s also a different bio market commercially. Their mcap is £40mil, but we would probably have to discount that crudely for the reasons above, by around 60%, so that gives a mcap of circa £24mill

So, on simple comparison to our piers, you could say we should be between £23mil and £40mill mcap

Or 25p - 45p at this stage

So yes whilst some may be burnt on the scum of twitter, this is still a very undervalued share and it will take one good RNS and we are well into the mid 20s.

Now the sellers are cleared, a good RNS or confirmation of filing for Russia (in the next 4-6 weeks), with only 47.5% free float, take away those not selling, I am convinced this has serious legs over the next month

Today was just a big dump, let them out, focus on facts

Good luck

I think if most read the RNS and read between the lines it’s clear.

-board sign off would be purely internal for the tier 1/2.
-condition president on WI is clearly taking some time
- heads of terms will have no doubt been agreed
- principles of the deal agreed and likely drawn up

They would have wanted the full deal done, then release funds. This hasn’t happened

They both realise time is pressing to drill, so they released half a million. However, they would have wanted some form of surety at that point that their money wasn’t going to be a cut and run, hence the exclusivity ensuring 88e uses the cash for the purpose its intended

If you imagine your buying a large piece of land to build 10 houses from a vendor. You need to start getting it through the planning process, the purchase price is agreed but legals on the purchase not completed between conveyancers. You want to spend money to fast track it, but you know if you do you risk the vendor going elsewhere or someone else coming along and buying it. For you to part with your cash you want something from the vendor of that land to secure it to you, pending the legal purchase being complete. This imo is what has happened here. The farminee would want some surety before passing $500k to 88E.

For me it’s fairly straightforward and common stuff, I just think some are reading more into it

It’s probably the easiest and quickest thing the lawyers could knock together in the time as these can be very much “off the shelve”

I would say the big 23k share sell was theirs yesterday too. Just got to hang tight, when they stop selling, this could well rocket well into the 20s imo

So we looking 4-8 weeks from next week in reality?

The stock is fine, it’s a great mid and long term hold, no debt, poly play and access to a huge medical market. It’s the day traders and people caught with their pants down moaning.
The actual stock at these prices will be very rewarding if your prepared to wait

Today’s RNS was actually very good imo

I see people still making ****e up lol

Shake it then don’t allow you to buy!

I have a feeling the market already knows this ain’t a magical multi penny deal.

Too much drifting and sitting at this point. Makes no sense unless they know the rough idea of what’s being agreed.

Hope not of course but I won’t be adding anymore

Needs some buying volume, low float, so any volume will send it north like yesterday very quickly

Looks quiet, expected some rise back into 20s. Early days tho. Need to soak up sells first

Easier to look at this link https://aim-watch.com/articles/price-monitoring-extensions-explained/

Price monitoring, auction. Let’s see where it comes out. Clearly a lot of volume causing issues

I’ve got average 28p in trading account and 19p in isa. Happy to wait

We know how quickly it moves and we know when the RNS comes saying we have filed for Russia it will spike

A lot of sells at the minute, once they clear we should see movement. Selling at 17p is panic sellers PIs panicking after being spiked