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Expected a good rise this morning into the £1.30s

Thanks AHP007. I did see however the COS were around 42%? But then it’s only a short step away from the last well

And another hit on Joe-1 and this will go mental.
What’s the drill time for J1?

Could just be IIs, a few high net worth PIs
I’d love to see a t/o but I think it’s way too early yet for that imo.
Maybe end of year after next drilling
But you never know!
Some BIG money moving in here now

Do we know a t/o is on the cards? Bit early for that?

Bit early for a t/o?

Huge premium paid

Just gone through at 1.36!

If off book and agreed between both parties you could be right. Good point

Not sure how much Cavendish has been off book. Maybe we will see a large delayed sell at some point this week. Who knows, but given someone bought £1.5mil it’s a positive. It would also explain the reason for no price movement

Imo it could be Cavendish selling on the open market with their £30-50k’s but the larger trades are going off book and transferred UNLESS this was the first off book, so maybe watch out for a matching sell over this week

Expecting a TR1 both for Cavendish as they needed to shift circa 17k since 8th to drop under the 12% threshold (but I do think they will want to end up 8-9% in reality)

Anyone mopping up at 3% would need to accumulate around 350,000 shares.

Given 81,000 could have been taken today (I think previous weeks have just been dumped open market), they are on the way.

If we have a few more over the next week, we may have someone else taking a position.

Eyes on the trades!

I’ve just text a friend in the city. Apparently They were “off book” trades. So 100% between two parties away from the open market. 100%!!

Who is taking them that’s the question!

Very odd the price actually fell. Not sure how the MM could fill a £1.5mil order without raising the price. The trade isn’t actually shown on advfn live trades.

I’m wondering if it’s been date stamped on lse wrong, which would explain the lack of movement

Can’t see how that’s filled and we end up down

I guess I’ve gone along the lines of the market valuation as it stands now £60mil valuing 2bn bbl.
Then adding a tier one FO, some money in the bank plus potential to drill (free carry). But we know the market tends to add real value once drilled not in the ground at times

Just throwing some thoughts out for discussion

Drives me mad moneyhawk!
Where did you come across the average given up, was this in the quarterly report? Thought was more than the 10%?

I guess the fact we have received $500k means this would form part of the cash payment and reduce 88Es costs for drilling, as this no longer needs to come from our current cash balance of £6.7mil (ish).

I’ve tended to look at mcap rather than share price (then converted)

We shall see!

Could of course be a transfer but haven’t had a chance to look to see if we had any sells to the same value the last week or so

surprising the share price didn’t budge on those! You’d think we would have seen a jump yet ended up down still!

Maybe a new II at those levels

Wow! Just makes you realize how this could move if we didn’t have cavendish reducing!

Very safe bet either way, if your prepared to hold for a few months.

I do feel the company need to come out however and talk to the shareholders. Even if it’s something like a proactive interview. The silence doesn’t really help attract new investors imo

They need to start re selling themselves and making potential new investors aware. Still very much under the radar

High of £21.20 a few weeks back, and now £18. Happy to top up at these levels and just sit it out until AA comes to the party with the next plan

No divi and no buy back...not too sure you can read too much into that imo, just a simple case of an II selling and not enough retail investors or new II adding. Supply and demand at present

Afternoon all.

I’ve been looking at our peers today, the likes of Bloe, cluff, I3e etc, assessing their COS, CPRs, financials and potential, along with mcap and opportunities

Comparing this to a reasonable FO deal here, I’m really struggling to see a good price uplift on FO, given the likely cash recovery (day $10-15mil assumed) along with a two well free carry (assumed again), which I would class as a “reasonably good deal”, along with circa $6.5mil cash in hand.

Mcap currently circa £60mil including cash in hand plus other assets.

I’ve tried (albeit difficult as we know) to add some mcap logic to it, but can’t seem to come out with much more than 1.5p on FO, with an incremental increase towards spud, during drilling, and post drilling towards 4p (best case mid next year).

Certainly not deramping the stock, and I hold a good chunk here which I believe is low risk (save for any potential raise if we need to fund a WI as cluff did).

Just wondered what others thoughts were when you compare peers, other FO deals of what could be a similar ilk