Member Info for SPECIALIST1

Short term level now around 1.35. No news will be forthcoming from the company at this stage. Expect a drift back over the next few sessions unfortunately

Price collapsing back to 1.35 again

Congratulations to everyone

Great update on CD4. Up more than 15% at the open and 40% by the close. Hooray

WRONG - cost of fibre to home is now under £1k per house. I know we have the Trumpet in the US but please donot make numbers up as people here know more than you do. Thanks

These guys donot in my view understand the economics of a network and the fact that without fibre backbone your margins will be squeezed as you have to buy capacity from an infrastructure player. Given BTs requirement for a Universal service as set in regulation the need for a backbone is even more paramount. To be honest I usually donot waste my time on the amateurs but given the level of panic yesterday I thought it was important to thighlight the facts.

GS telco analysts are clowns - just in my view. These guys are momentum jockeys and have no idea on the stock.

The impact - 1( Would have reduced overall pension liabilities by £1.3bn - Most have indeed left the company - over 70%. I am more interested in the financial impact than the morality but generally speaking you are right - the workers decided to work there based on a set of contracts which encompassed their pension and those terms should not change unilaterally.

However a lot has changed since the de-regulation in the sector and BT as the only Universal infrastructure owner in the UK is under a lot of pressure by the government to upgrade its network and then provide access to third parties at favourable rates. The UK government has been pretty harsh on them but then what does BT expect if it is paying a +6% yield. Optically it is better to cut the dividend but the real reason will be to invest for growth in fibre.

Will you guys ever give up?? Stop making things up. There is no visibility to whether there is a deal or not and there is no visibility on timing. Please go back to work increase your productivity for the country and when the news is out you will either lose all your money or have a 5-10 bagger.

The uplift even if they would have won would have been insignificant in the context of a £45bn fund. It would have reduced liabilities by around £1.3bn but that is equivalent to a 0.25% rise in the yields of AA UK corporate bonds (which is how the trustees calculate the funds liabilities). Hence the yield curve has much more impact on the pension deficit than a move from RPI to CPI.

I do concede however that it would had a small positive impact ,but expectations were that the oriinial ruling would not be overturned which is the reason that the stock has not reacted negatively.

Much better day today and there is significant upside on fundamentals given a change in wrong strategy from aggressive investing in loss making sports content to increasing CAPEX in fibre which is the only real growth area for most pure telco operators at the moment. On average around Europe ARPU increases by around £5 when you get customers to switch from copper to fibre.

Now in terms of piling in for dividend as I mentioned before you might get some derivative traders trading the divi into the results but most income funds in the city make the decision based on 1) whether they like the stock on fundamentals in which case they are already in the stock and 2) the buy or sell based on their underweight/overweight position relative to their index. To that end we will not get huge buying into the interim dividends (although the stock might still go up but that is driven on fundamentals and not divi buying).

Furthermore realistically BT has to cut the dividend in my view to a more sustainable 3.4-4% yield and re-invest that money for growth in upgrading the network to NGN of fibre. In my view the market will look at that development positively specially if the cut in divvi is signalled previously and the rationale is made clear.

In a 6-12 month view we will move up and I expect the stock around the 330 mark by Q2 19 before we meet some resistance and then we need further clarity on potential disposal of loss making areas in Global services and more visibility on fibre investment and fundamentals before the next leg up. Obviously with a new CEO he has to prove his execution capability in the next two quarters by reporting and hitting his numbers.

GL to all Longs. You are sitting pretty as so am I :)

Before the last set of results most institutions were indeed underweight the stock but some have readjusted their weightings already. The interim dividend - you might get some derivative dividend traders playing it but we will not get significant buying from institutions due to that, in my view. However I agree that we are going to get a nice uptick as on fundamentals and given a change from the wrong strategy of investing aggressively in sports, the stock is now cheap and offers significant upside in my view.

Agreed that the FTSE deal is based on the trade deal but there is sector rotation away from telco's as market takes risk off trades "off" and moves to risk on. In any case BT is now 256.1 and the bounce will continue into tomorrow and we will go past 260 in 24 hours, in my view.

BT is a MASSIVE BUY here. We should hit 330 by the set of next results in February, in my view.

This is not a Brexit no-deal being priced it(FTSE UP STRONGLY). It is sector rotation and risk-on trades being put on today. Telco sector weak around Europe as the M&A buzz after European regulators allowed DT to acquire the Dutch business of Tele2 is now dissipitates. We should bounce later this week alnd BT is already back up to 255.4p which implies the 253-54 support might hold.

Totally ridiculous - On charts once it broker 258p then the next support is around the 252-253 level. We really donot want to break that level and ned to bounce - otherwise trouble!!

Also for the same reason Vodafone is underperforming - a big defensive stock

It makes PERFECT sense. Market is up with risk on trades being put on, therefore BT which is a defensive name will suffer - however the extent of the differential today is too much and the stock will partly recover in the afternoon session.

Many people will make a Buy like that. That amount by means absolutely nothing to a largish punter. Do you guys ever make money in the markets???

Absolutely correct inconceivable- the large trade according to some is a very small trade to some others here and means absolutely NOTHING. That is the reason I think the remarks about someone In the know, or pump and dump or news in 10 days etc....... just highlights what a bunch of amateurs are around these boards. Don’t waste your time.