Member Info for SPECIALIST1

That would be nice but needs support from developments to sustain and rise long term.

Wonderful analysis and commentary. Thanks.

The stock will now bide time and remain within 1.7-2.1 range pending further news , in my view.

Stock up 8% fiancé your dilution call which hopefully slowly drives my message through that derampers as people call it are irrelevant so are any ridiculous positive comments. Stock move on fundamentals. I can easily say that BPC is going bankrupt next month in my view. Impact on share price 0 or farm in is guaranteed and we are going to 20p. Impact still 0.

You do not issue shares or show any weakness during negotiations therefore your comments are not based on facts rather than a lack of knowledge. No worries however as the Specialist is here to give free lessons.

PS. I can teach the English language as well. Let me know.

A free lesson here - The reason we are not going to 3p is that unless there is further data-points the more experienced investor and traders will sell into a rally which is not supported by fundamentals in the knowledge that the stock price will come down. That is the first rule of market efficiency although for less researched stock there will be times when the stock is mis-priced but invariably it corrects itself as more experienced players adjust the price. One example was the rally last month to 2p when the sheep all flocked in in expectation that someone knows something having seen a large buy order. They pushed the stock to 2p before the more experienced investors and traders sold out knowing there was no basins for the rise. Those who were interested in playing the stock then bought back sub 1.4p. It is invariably the less experienced investors who get burnt buying on the way up (on momentum) while the more experienced ones sell to them. Only when we have good news which changes the fundamentals like last Friday do we get a move to a new trading range.

As such with the event now known (licenses), there is now no basis for a move to 3p until further news comes out or hopefully the company announces a farm-in deal. That again changes the fundamentals and the trading range. In the absence of that news we will play around the 1.7-2.1 level for the next 4-6 weeks and then will start to drift back again. Obviously I do not want that scenario given my position.

We are not going to 3p in the absence of further data points and positive news. Unfortunately stocks donot move on hope but on facts.

Ok - that is good. lets leave it. I have been always long - The journey to 0 was for those who are easy to wind up here thinking that we move the stock - we donot move the stock long term - neither what we say has any long term impact on the price. That is set by the fundamentals and the company. It just amazes me the level of ignorance that gets wind up by what they call de-rampers thinking they really have any influence or bearing on the stock price.

Also no - it is not going up any more on the fundamentals as the news is now out. It will only go up on momentum buying and that will reverse in the absence of any further data-points so you still have a lot to learn after 40 years. I learnt that in my first year!

I am better and my arrogance is well placed. As an ex banker as you claim you should know that we were not responsible for the collapse on the equity side - it was mainly driven the fixed-income divisions. And it is not years which count rather what you make of them - therefore my arrogance is now double well placed compared to you :)

We donot go up for no reason. This is purely momentum buying - your truly being one of them which added again today Even if it goes up tomorrow it will start drifting back to a new equilibrium which is the 1.7-1.9 trading range now in anticipation of a deal announcement. Announce a deal within three months and we go to 6-8 quickly and then move ahead again depending on drilling timetable - no news and we will start drifting back to 1.3-1.4 as we have to settle in a higher trading ranger (than prior to the announcement) given the option value of the license extension.

Company's walk away from deals for many reasons - terms not being right, circumstances changing, risk return not agreeable to the board etc. However what might seem unattractive to one player is very attractive to another one. Walking away means nothing when there are multiple players in the frame and the extension of licenses has provided clarity and certainty now - so a deal is now more likely although it needs to be forthcoming within a quarter.

This is all assuming if there wwill be an announcement and there is no guarantee there.

Ok - lets get back to this stock. We have 3 months although it will start drifting back before that. They need to update on a possible farm in within that period. Realistically on announcement we should get to around 6-8. If they do start to drill then we would get to 12-15 at the very least and might even go a bit higher. The question is if that will be a good time for exit or do we go 25% on the news of a farm in deal, 45% on drilling and keep 30% for a possible end game and even if it goes belly up at the end you would have still make a killing depending on your current positions of course.

Well done - that requires initiative but that must have been still in the 80's so you must be pretty ancient.

But still I totally accept that you were not in a Mickey Mouse operation

Morgan Stanley, Bear Stearns and BoA Merrill

Don't worry I worked only with major US investment banks. We would not let you guys in through the doors but I am sure you are also knowledgable - on a relative basis of course.

30 years in the city and many as an SMD and MD so I will take my chances here!

Yes you can sell at 1.855 against a indicated bid of 1.8 and buy at 1.9 but wouldnot call it a huge firm up!!!