Great read meter points was 53.5k
Smart meter engineers now at 50
Page on future rev possibilities £3b in 6 years at current trajectory of 55m a month new business
All this for for a PE of 7 and MC of £230m
Downside is very limited with a PE of just over 7 and huge cash pile.
We should be on a PE of at least 14-20 especially as growth is very much in explosive mode and that doesn’t take into a account the dividend yield
Also worth keeping an eye on the gas spot price it’s flying at the moment up from 56p a therm to 72p a therm currently the average for 2023 was only 83p a therm so the pull back in the commodity price has not been as great a people may have anticipated especially with the trouble in the Middle East, Red Sea and Ukraine that can very easily strangle supplies
This is a YU and the SP does bizzare things but one thing for sure is the down side is very limited on a 2023 PE of around 7 TBC tomorrow and especially as half the MC is in cash
I have seen YU go up over 100% in a day very easily done if the buying pressure is there and this time we have no had the traders piling in prior so a bit different this time
also i think the sp is static because i read so much that yu has gone up xxx percent in the last 2 years and people think wow i have missed the boat
*******s we are priced after these results lower that sector rivals who's growth is pathetic in comparison our pe will be around 7 and mc is £220m with probably 50% of the mc in cash
wow
I just do not think people get how much money that YU are generating and how much they have available
So we do know they have just received back 52.5m plus the 31.5m that is £84m plus what’s been generated so far in 2024 and if March was effectively a free month, so the big question is actually how much do YU have in cash, yes ROC is due in AUG 24 so a good £20m needed for that and say £20m held back for investment in advertising , tech refresh etc etc etc
That still leaves possibly by year end 100m + as a wild guess
So what the hell are YU going to do with that cash , £20m special dividend plus 17p which is about 3m so still say 70m plus left
This all assumes the explosive growth of 2023 is muted which I highly doubt, yes spot price has fallen but actually the average price in 2023 as 83p a therm currently we are bouncing around at an average of 70p a therm not that large and it is volatile especially with the world on the edge in Europe and the Middle East and the stupid green agenda , volatility is here to stay and higher prices also here to stay.
So for me the big question is yes big dividends are great but remember YU only have about 1.5% market share and this year is going to be a fascinating to watch as to how much YU along with Shell can eat into the market share.
Shell are no fools and the deal is obviously aiming for several billion in turnover over the next 5 years and She’ll can obviously see the huge potential
Also I would not be shocked / surprised if shell actually took a stake a YU as they do like doing that as I can see this partnership being explosive
Time will tell by say Q4 2024 and how aggressively YU have taken market share and pushing on the 100,000 clients
YU always under sell and over deliver the only disappointment to date is smart meter roll out 10k was promised and 8k hit but this has more to with recruitment
Tuesday has the potential to be a big turning turning point , swimming in money, growing at a pace to rival a tech stock and now working with a Titan in the commodity hedging space
Next 2 days are going to drag waiting for the RNS to drop and hopefully most of what’s on peoples minds is put to bed
For 2024 I want to see the same statement a last year
“We have got off to a fantastic start in 2024 with our exceptional performance continuing.”
Once I have seen the meter points total for 2023 which should be around 53-54k according to Lib
I reckon they could already be at 60+ and no reason if that’s the case to be knocking on 75-85k by year end with turnover 750-850m
Again way above lib who have forecast 668m again way over brokers estimate
Markets are broken, you need to remember what the brokers where forecasting for 2023 at the start of the year, 350m turnover, 43p eps
Look what we have actually done
Proves the point the brokers have never got it right and wrong by a significant margin across the board
Long and strong and just maybe all our patience is about to pay off bigtime as our valuation never mind dividends and special dividend and even possible share buy back justifies a price way above current levels.
If YU put out yet another bullish start to 2024 as well Jesus Christ the SP is just laughable
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