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Probably those shareholders who have them in the much talked about 'bottom draw'. Lol
Seriously though, Rock had $6.7m in the bank mid year 2023. This extra £5m/$6m means Rock are not financially stressed. Add in the net minimum of Eur 15m from selling the OM award once FIG have signed off, perhaps over Eur 100m, and Rock last hurdle is waiting on Navitas's firing the starting gun to first oil 2026/2027.
'' At 30 June 2023, the Group had 53.9 million unexercised 9 pence warrants in issue, with an expiry date of 31 December 2023
· Cash and term deposit balance at 30 June 2023 of US$6.7 million''
LTT, logically Rock's SP 'warrants' a higher SP, but
the OM deal is still be be signed of so not yet 100%, I feel 99% likely though.
Winning the award and getting the second OM tranche is not 100%, perhaps a 90% chance of remaining a substantial pay-out. though.
FID is not 100% certain, though I'd say 95% likely though not could be pushed out to 2025.
Once we get those 100%'s, then there is no reason why the SP should not get in to the 20's or 30pence in short order, this year.
I don't.
However I do see it as a vote of confidence that things are weighted towards an increased SP, and perhaps the first flicker of ii interest in Rock which bodes well for 2024.
It has been over 9 months since the last in-depth RNS update of Navitas's significant improvement over PMO's plans.
It was well worth the wait. It would be nice to think another update would come this quarter.
Phase 1 and 2 development concept
o 23 wells
o Phased drilling
o 18 wells in phase 1 with 11 of them pre first oil
o Five additional wells in phase 2, approximately 42 months post first oil
· Total barrels developed: 269 million
· Plateau production rate: 80,000 bbls/d
· Peak rate: 100,000 bbls/d
· Total capex: US$2.2bn
· Phase 1 capex: US$1.8bn
· Pre first oil capex: US$1.3bn
Per barrel cost - life of field
· Capex: US$7.50
· Opex: US$20.10
· Total cost: US$27.60
Added to list
20 r1234
49 Market-Dealer
78 Ovets
30 Fin147
Latest included. Average approx 50p, which would be fantastic if anywhere near that.
132 Stillneedoil
100 Neilius
100 CitizenTS
73 hsbilkhu
60.5 JEBR
60 BuildersBum3
57 longtermthinker
53 buffit
50 Thenorseman
48 jakman444
47 billbadger
40 Silverfoil13
38 Kerching
32 fecm
28 SpaceHoppa
23 passive
22 BlueDefender
15 Latics
13 OscarIndiaLima
10 headder
Well with the latest 2 guesses, and excluding MD, the average is, I feel, a punchy 50pence.
BTW if you're name isn't on the list, its probably because I have you filtered, so ask someone on the list, to post your guesses if you'd like to join in. Will close the list end of January or on significant news, whichever comes first.
#itsJustAbitOfFun
Good to see another £2million in the Rock bank account and the conclusion of the warrants option which helps to remove another variable. 620million shares is not a lot given the amounts of free cash flow SL can shed once into full production, and currently if the plans go as we hope, Rock wont need to dilute any more.
Just waiting on the sign off from FIG as far as I know re selling the OM award, and then it is again a waiting game for Navitas to announce ducks have been lined up for FID in hopefully 12 months. The risk /reward looks better than for a very long time!!
132 Stillneedoil
100 Neilius
100 CitizenTS
60 BuildersBum3
57 longtermthinker
53 buffit
47 billbadger
40 Silverfoil13
32 fecm
28 SpaceHoppa
22 BlueDefender
13 OscarIndiaLima
10 headder
Will do LLT, and will repost the guesses if or once, get significant more.
The range which Rock can achieve this year is, admittedly, quite large and largely dependant on Navitas, which is out of managements control. That said, with the warrants now out of the way bar an announcement, FID scheduled for end 2024 and a clear path to monetising the award, it is hard to see Rock staying at these levels as the year progresses.
I am concerned of a low ball take over though, as the pieces fall into place.
Quite an optimistic bunch of guesses so far, compared to mine. Rock certainly has the potential to 10 bag, but it normally takes a while, and almost invariably longer than we hope.
I guess a decent, however a conservative rise to 27pence
132 Stillneedoil
100 Neilius
100 CitizenTS
100 longtermthinker
53 buffit
47 billbadger
40 Silverfoil13
32 fecm
27 SpaceHoppa
If we logically look at the facts as we know it,
a dedicated experienced operator,
OM settled bar the paperwork and EUR 45 to 100m plus bagged,
Incredibly profitable appraised oil field ready to be developed,
then 2024 should indeed be a very good year for the Rock !!
With that in mind, perhaps next week we can all have a think about year end 24 share price. I will collect those that I can see. Anyone filtered apologies.
HNY
Just musing, that whilst once I wanted as many warrants to be taken up as possible, to help fund Rock in 2024.
Now with the OM award almost certainly bringing in a minimum EUR 45, to over EUR 100+ millions, I'd rather as few warrants were exercised as possible!
Morning JEBR, good post, however one correction the hearing is now scheduled to begin in April 2024, according to the latest update.
Kread, to answer your question referring to the below from the Half-Year Results 28 Sept.
1. The warrants are most likely going to be taken up
2. The arbitration award looks like it has been sold, netting between EUR15m to EUR100m+
3. The legal cost will be settled as part of 2.
'At the period end the Group had 53.9 million unexercised 9 pence warrants in issue with an expiry date of 31 December 2023. Assuming the share price is in excess of 9 pence, which it is at time of writing, the Group expects the majority of these warrants to be exercised providing additional funds of up to £4.9 million. However, in the downside circumstances where these outstanding warrants are not fully exercised the Group would have to raise additional funds within the next 12 months to meet both legal costs in relation to the arbitration and normal working capital requirements.
This agreement with the new funder, might possibly hasten the whole process for the reason I took of a website posted below
The high cost of litigation provides well-funded defendants with an overly potent
weapon: financial asymmetry.
Realising that the plaintiff has legal financing in place
is a powerful motivation for a defendant to seek a settlement in a case. After all, it
should be apparent by then that the plaintiff has the ability and the commitment to
fight the case until the end.
I think Italy now know, if they didn't before, that they will be perused for the money until the bitter end. If they lose the annulment case, as they likely will, they may quietly settle sooner, for a small discount.
Fair play to some of you guys.
You respond to the same deramping headline, & the same repeated
again,
and again,
and again
daily deramping nonsense.
You have more patience, or more precious time than I have, as they're all filtered !
Citizen and CantSell,
to be fair the third tranche is the least important as a 20% profit share of even EUR 120m, is only EUR 24m, and only crystallised once Italy have paid the new funder.
Tranche 2 is more important, in so much that should Italy lose the annulment case, to quote Sam, the tranche amount of EUR 65million is paid 'basically immediately from the new funder'.
Cant Sell Now, I queried that with the house broker, he clarified and basically said add tranches 1+2 + 200% of legal costs.
If it was 200% of total costs, tranche 3 would be worthless !
It is badly worded.
Thanks Mike.
I like the way Malcy worded that, a (20%) 'profit share on recovery'. It's a good way to think of it.
Just to add, SM has confirmed what Henry at Canaccord Genuity said.
Also worth putting in to context how much Rock needed for SL.
Hypothetically if the SL phase 1 Capex was $1.3bn, and $1.0bn was from debt finance, Rock would need a gross JV equity contribution of $300mm. Rock are on the hook for 35% of that which is $105mm but we get 2/3 of that in the Navitas loan leaving us with $35mm to pay.
On the assumption Italy lose or even obtain a 50% reduction in the award, Rockhopper have the above easily covered.