Member Info for Sotolo

Well tried selling but can’t as others must feel the same and market maker will only give a price on limited number of shares

Well the breakout does seem down as we feared,down through the 50 day and now 200 day averages. The CEY share price has been shouting this lower gold is coming for months as people have sought other explanations. The crowd just want to sell mor than buy, and as most demand is investment driven sentiment is king. What next? CEY share price has fallen about three times the POG from their earlier 2017 tops, so is about right and saying neither one thing nor the other. Will it now lurch down agai in advance of further gold falls? Is it time to take the hit and sell now in anticipation of getting back in lower for silly me who never has the guts to follow my own advice? Most of you are fairly quiet now which is normally a precursor of falls too. I wonder if or when our counter indicator on iii who was the final piece heralding the latest falls will also switch to sell? I wonder where this fall will stop and in months or years?

Well very sadly it is looking increasingly likely the break is down. As said before I sometimes think people focus on the wrong metrics, like any company CEY,s fortunes depend on demand for the product, however much you produce. If gold drops 10% then CEY has to produce something like half as much again to make the same profit, assuming the same cost, tho costs per oz would probably rise. Conversely if gold rises CEY can produce less and still make more profit. It is I think to a large extent why the price of CEY was little more than a quarter of what it is now a couple of years ago, when gold was not much more than 15% lower. Cey is a very geared play on the price of gold, with relatively low costs which means it can survive a gold fall albeit with a much reduced share price, it is lovely when it produces a little more, it is not lovely when costs rise but, unless these changes are large, it is the price of gold, which is out of our fine managements hands, that will lose or make us money. Just now gold is facing so many better looking short term alternatives for people�s money - rising stocks, tax cuts pushing them further, rising interest rates for the altenative of money on deposit and bitcoin soaring - the headwinds are strong, unless inflation starts shooting up faster than interest rates. If gold can survive these headwinds it is truly solid, but will it?

As said although output can affect CEY price, this is not imo as important as output less real costs, but the biggest variable is how much they can sell the outpit for. And as most is bought for investment this is very much an expectation of the real cost of holding it ie interest rates v inflation. I think the CEY break out awaits gold�s break out above 1300, and could still be a break out down. Our contra indicator that you noticed appears to have been spot on. Sorry about my mild optimism, but I am still hoping we are stuck in a range and it will pick up again especially after Xmas but at the moment tax cuts and interest rate rises are weighing on POG plus a rising US economy and stock market, so could still break either way.

I am still feeling optimistic, I think the price and sentiment are very much driven by gold price and sentiment in particular a lot by the $ gold price, despite out counter indicator who cannot always be wrong we hope. I am even hoping this is a repeat of last year and year before with gold beginning up sometime in Dec and going till Easter tho I know history never repeats itself, except when it does. Now I have said that again, maybe we are all doomed, but last time as you pointed out my optimism affected nothing. The only reason I think it might is fi I think like many others, then when all are optimistic is just when Mr Market gives us a hit. But we have had a lot of hits lately, we are not fashionable, let's hope they are low on ammo ...

Quite agree, as said an awful lot of double guessing of sentiment, but in the end fundamentals will out which is why we all hold on to this bucking bronco. On another point, on my fear not affecting the market, of course not, but first every contra indicator helps, and much realer when I get afraid it is usually because the market is which pressages an upturn, ie when most are most afraid is often a time to buy and vice versa. Which is why I enjoy our contraindicator over on iii, he has been a bit quiet lately after a bout of optimism. All best and also thank you Mr Brians for such useful and informed input. PS looking at gold price in euros, and diapog as you say, is also informative as to why hasn�t risen much yet

Share prices predicts the future. Ie what buyers and sellers expects profitability to be into the future, competing with what alternatives there are to invest in. So market worries about output, costs, profit shares and legal cases, reading sentiment of others, and especially what it expects the gold price will be. However hopefully the collective wisdom of the market is not as good at predicting as the collective wisdom of this bulletin board, which seems less herd like. So roll on the different opinions both down and up!

Dear Mr Brains. I quite agree, and with Uncertain�s earlier reply to the venerable Mr Tibbs. However the important thing to me, is we have different opinions on this board, and it is important we all express our views on conspiracy theories futures etc, but even more important how our company is doing and where we think gold is going. I have mentioned before the interesting book �superforecasting� that suggests a collection of amateurs usually beat the professionals who move in a herd. So keep up the different views including replies to the venerable Mr Tibbs, and thanks again Mr Brains for your wise words, and a bit more pepper! On another not Uncertain was I worried enough a few weeks ago. Now I am feeling mildly optimistic. Is that worrying?

Thanks for that. If only... I used to read the money changer (Franklin Samders)but got fed up when, day after day, from 2011-2015 he would say gold about to rise most of the time as it gently fell. I now like Gary Wagner�s daily and weekly reports. However most of the reporters depend on more customers, and predicting higher prices attracts them. I think that is why many, such as on the Centamin board, think there is a conspiracy to lower the gold price, as they feel from the reports of these salesmen that gold should be higher when it is a result of supply and demand, affected by sentiment and talk. I like to buy when everyone says it is bombed out rather than all predicting it is about to soar, It is a bit like economists have predicted 90of the last 5 recessions, gold pundits have predicted 90 of the last 2 booms One day of course they will be right, hopefully while we are still alive.

Maybe that’s why Now can this get Hoc properly on the up again - extra price already obviates part of extra costs

Sadly HOC has been running up based a lot on expected great results. Sadly they were no better than mammagement predicted so froth will come off but Good and solid, so after fall seems more as it should be to me, tho now at mercy of silver price,

I talked about selling at 283 but was dissuaded, so this time haven’t asked. So Sold this am as price has perked up a bit, chart and politics look weak at the moment, and price remains pretty strong considering....

I am entirely with Ionic on this, it is unusually hard to call just now but it looks increasingly like the story on balance is down, the 200 day ave has been decisively broken and on fundamentals we face rising interets rates, qe reversal, Yellen speak, strong US and European economies, housing and auto sales(all except UK for obvious reason). All good for world if not us. Against that we have inflation that could be rising so real interest rates aren’t going up, and the huge debts around the world, but this is something longer term and gold miners could have a hard time or fold with low prices before then. In reply to your question gold has fallen over the last 6 years by a third, this year’s bounce up is lower than last year’s, if the downtrend in gold and silver were to continue HOC could fall many fold. Of course I hope it doesn’t. All imho and as said it is hard to call but the down story is gaining credibility daily

Given demographics and constituencies it looks highly likely the Conservative will get a majority, and probably a largish one. It seems perverse to be selling Hochshild just ash the moment it breaks out, I am hanging on hoping POG makes it past 1300 soon, silver in tandem, and Hoc past 330 into a new world heading to its all time high. Hoc has been very good to me so I am hanging on to this bucking bronco, as statistically trying to time the market out and in only gives money to the Chancellor as stamp duty. Ps the extra income tax is on earning over £80k not just multi million salaries, and would need to be quite a lot even with extra corporation tax to pay for all,

Why is sanity a rise in Silver price not fall?

My view for what it is worth is that silver is slightly more likely to be on the way down than at the bottom of a correction, but I hope I am wrong.

He interestingly seems to say heavy quick futures/buying selling can only move the market in the very short term by persuading others, but after these speculative attacks the market quickly mean reverts, so they are not the problem unless you are a futures or short term trader. So take a medium term view. Then you have to ask whether, on the industrial side, China will slow down and on the financial side whether real interest rates will rise, and whether other interest paying assets will be more attractive, so silver fall which the market seems to expect just now,or the opposite and silver will rise? So what are all your views on medium term silver price as that is what we should be thinking about and together we should have a good view!

The market is a combination of what different people (buyers and sellers) think the price will do. So the HOC price depends if they think silver will rise from here, stabilise or fall, not just what it is or how it has moved today (often just because of the dollar). Often the price of the share rises in anticipation of the price of gold or silver rising, Hoc is up 50% in 3 months while silver is up less than 15%. Now it is pausing while sees whether silver rally has further to go or is topping out. Look at it monthly not daily and the metal and shares usually catch up with each other (unless disaster in mine, or production increase), usually with around a factor of 3 which will fall as silver rises and fixed costs become a smaller proportion. All imho.

Why don't you ask if there is any more information they can give on how long the closure might go on for. You never know they might be able to answer. Centamin have always been v helpful to me

What about Cey?